Since May, as international oil prices have stabilized and rebounded, PTA simultaneously showed a trend of oscillation and recovery. After the main 2009 contract rebounded from below 3,200 yuan/ton to 3,750 yuan/ton, it oscillated sideways near 3,600 yuan/ton. PTA processing fees are rising at a high level, equipment is actively producing, and inventory has reached a record high. However, consumption continues to be dragged down by the epidemic. The contradiction between supply and demand is highlighted, and PTA prices are under pressure.
PX’s profits are low
From late April to the present, international Oil prices bottomed out and rebounded, with WTI oil prices rising to above $35/barrel, basically recovering the decline since mid-March. Naphtha prices returned to around US$300/ton at the end of May, but after PX prices rose to US$500/ton, they failed to continue to follow the pace of raw material prices and performed weakly. This was mainly due to high PX inventories and abundant supply. The price difference between PX and naphtha has weakened significantly since May as crude oil and naphtha prices rebounded. After falling below $200/ton at the end of May, it is currently oscillating around $180/ton, which is far lower than the $300 for traditional equipment. / ton theoretical spread level.
The low profits of PX may cause some short-process equipment in Japan and South Korea to reduce production and load. Once the price of PX strengthens, the profits of the PTA link may be moderately compressed. At the same time, the weak PX situation has caused the PX-converted PTA processing gap to continue to expand. At the end of May, it exceeded 900 yuan/ton. The industry as a whole showed good processing profits. In theory, there is a large space for compression, which is a potential negative factor for the market. The compression of poor processing does not necessarily lead to a decline in PTA prices, but it will make PTA’s performance relatively weak and the price will be easy to fall but difficult to rise.
High inventory is difficult to alleviate
Since May, PTA processing has been poor The overall price remained above 700 yuan/ton, and exceeded 900 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The overall good profits prompted domestic devices to actively produce. At the beginning of May, the overall operating rate of the industry according to CCF statistics reached 92.7%, and some equipment maintenance plans were postponed. PTA inventory continues to rise. As of May 22, domestic PTA social inventory reached 3.84 million tons, the highest level in the same period in previous years was 2.4 million tons. In mid-to-late May, due to the unexpected shutdown of Hanbang’s 2.2 million-ton unit, the industry’s operating rate dropped to 86.6%, and the PTA supply and demand situation changed from continuous accumulation to slight destocking. At the end of May, PTA social inventory dropped to 3.8 million tons, but it was still 1.6 million tons higher than the highest level in the same period of previous years.
Judging from the current corporate maintenance plans, only the 1.4 million-ton unit of Zhejiang Huabin Petrochemical has a short-term shutdown plan in mid-to-late July, but the 400,000-ton unit of Jinshan Petrochemical will undergo maintenance in mid-June. It may be restarted after the end. Hanbang’s 700,000-ton unit plans to restart before June 10, and the 2.2-million-ton unit plans to shut down for two weeks, but there is uncertainty about the restart time. Therefore, PTA may continue to maintain a slight destocking state in the first half of June, and may become balanced in the middle and late half of June. Overall, the high PTA inventory situation is difficult to alleviate in the short term.
The epidemic affects consumption
The epidemic has affected consumption since the first quarter , the domestic and foreign textile and apparel markets have been greatly impacted. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that domestic retail sales of textiles and clothing fell by more than 30% year-on-year in February and March, with clothing performing worse than textiles. In April, the data were restored to -18.5% and -20.7% respectively, but the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 7.5%, and the performance of textiles and clothing was still poor.
From the perspective of the polyester segment, as the epidemic control situation improved from April to May, the resumption of work and production increased, and the international crude oil price rebounded, stimulated by multiple factors, polyester yarn Sales continue to improve. At present, the polyester inventory pressure has been significantly relieved compared with March, but it is still at a high level for the same period in the past four years. In the later period, whether polyester production can continue to rise and whether polyester stocks can continue to decline will depend more on whether terminal consumption can materially improve and whether early stockpiling can truly enter the consumption stage.
To sum up, first of all, higher processing fees mean that there is room for compression of PTA prices. In the later period, PTA prices will be relatively Raw materials may be weak, and high profits stimulate active production of equipment, and companies are less willing to take the initiative to repair. Secondly, terminal consumption has been weak due to the impact of the epidemic, and it will be difficult to continue to boost the raw materials market before consumption improves substantially. Finally, considering the entry of PTA In the new round of equipment commissioning cycle, the prosperity of downstream polyester is declining, and low oscillation may be the long-term tone of PTA. </p
