This week, the Zheng cotton yarn CY2105 contract rebounded strongly after hitting a low of 21,075 yuan/ton, breaking through the integer mark such as 22,500 yuan/ton. It rebounded 1,665 points in just three trading days, an increase of 7.9%, which far exceeded that of cotton, Raw materials such as polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber have followed a curve of late arrival and first arrival.
Industry analysis shows that once the CY2105 contract price is opened and confirmed at 23,300 yuan/ton, the next mid-line target will be 24,200 yuan/ton, although it is far from the annual high of 25,220 yuan/ton. It is still far away, but as Zheng cotton yarn bottoms out and the wait-and-see mood of terminals such as weaving, fabrics, and clothing weakens, inventory replenishment will also start again. Cotton spinning enterprises have accumulated gauze inventory, and the pressure on production and sales has been significantly reduced. Cotton yarn may become the “engine of the entire industrial chain” “, driving up cotton futures prices.
Why has Zheng Miansha performed so strongly recently? Cotton-related enterprises and institutions generally summarize the following reasons:
First, the current price of cotton yarn is “upside down”. As raw materials such as cotton and polyester short goods stop falling and rebound, Zheng Cotton yarn The disk needs to be repaired. Although the current CY2105 contract price has continued to rise to 22,300-22,700 yuan/ton, the quotations of C32S mid-range cotton yarn in Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang are generally 24,200-24,500 yuan/ton, even if one month’s financial costs, warehousing costs and transactions are not taken into account Delivery costs, cotton yarn futures prices are “upside down” and still reach 1,500-2,200 yuan/ton, which is obviously abnormal;
Second, cotton yarn futures are more susceptible to external news and financial factors , policy influence. As of the end of March, the cotton yarn inventory pressure of most domestic cotton spinning enterprises was not outstanding, and operating funds were relatively abundant. The COVID-19 epidemic in Europe, the United States and other countries has reached an “inflection point”. With widespread vaccination and central banks maintaining loose monetary policies, consumption of mid- to high-end textiles and clothing will rebound with retaliation. Thirdly, compared with raw materials such as polyester staple fiber, cotton yarn is more affected by rising labor costs, energy, chemical and other prices. Imported inflation pressure increases, and cotton yarn can only be passively raised.
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