In the first week after the Spring Festival holiday, driven by the continuous rise in international oil prices, the overall atmosphere in the domestic energy and chemical sector was warmer. PTA futures prices continued to rise sharply, and the main contract once stood at 5,000 yuan/ton, a new high in more than a year. But the good times did not last long, and PTA futures prices fluctuated and fell after briefly exceeding 5,000 yuan/ton. As of last Friday, March 19, the main PTA futures contract 2105 reported 4306 yuan/ton. While processing fees remain low, the role of PTA’s cost side is magnified, and PTA futures will follow the international oil price to show a wide range of oscillations.
The positive factors in the crude oil market have basically been realized
In the short term, some negative factors have begun to appear in the crude oil market appear.
First, the IEA stated in its monthly report that there is currently no shortage of crude oil supply. Crude oil storage tanks and explored production are sufficient to ensure sufficient supply in the global crude oil market. If the market supply Tight, about 9.3 million barrels per day of OPEC+ idle production capacity can be quickly deployed for production. The IEA is also pessimistic about future crude oil demand, believing that global crude oil demand will not fully return to pre-epidemic levels of about 100 million barrels per day until 2023.
Second, as France, Germany, Italy and other countries will adopt more stringent epidemic restrictions, the expectation of another comprehensive blockade in Europe has triggered market concerns about crude oil demand. In addition, due to concerns about possible side effects, some European countries have stopped using the AstraZeneca vaccine, hampering vaccination. This has brought greater uncertainty to the rebound in crude oil demand and global economic recovery, and market concerns have further intensified.
Third, the Mexican President recently stated that during his term, Mexico will limit crude oil extraction to 2 million barrels per day, which is much higher than the recent 1.6 million barrels. barrels per day, and the possible increase in supply from Iran and Libya have also raised market concerns about increasing crude oil supply.
However, OPEC+ has not yet implemented its production increase plan, and Saudi Arabia’s voluntary additional production cuts indicate to the outside world that its focus is still on pushing up oil prices. Therefore, there is still some support for international oil prices in the near future. As the long-short game intensifies, international oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term.
PTA production capacity expansion has entered a “gap period”
In 2021, domestic PTA production capacity will continue to increase significantly Expansion and expansion far beyond 2020. According to the plan announced at the beginning of the year, 6 new domestic units with a total capacity of 16 million tons/year will be put into operation in 2021. If all units are put into operation as scheduled, by the end of 2021, the total domestic PTA unit production capacity will reach 72.955 million tons/year, which is higher than In 2020, it increased by 28.09%, an increase of 10.79 percentage points compared with 2020.
As of late March, Fujian Baihong’s 2.5 million tons/year device has been put into full production and will be included in the effective production capacity on March 1. Honggang Petrochemical’s 2.4 million tons/year The device has also successfully discharged materials, and the effective domestic PTA production capacity has increased to 59.455 million tons/year, an increase of 4.38% from the end of 2020. Although in the production plan, Yisheng New Materials’ two sets of 3 million tons/year production capacity units will be put into operation in the first and second quarters respectively, the specific time of production has not been determined. Considering that the current domestic PTA processing gap continues to be at a low level, these two It is more likely that a new unit, especially one originally planned to be put into operation in the first quarter, will be delayed. Domestic PTA production capacity expansion has also entered a short “gap period.”
Judging from the situation in previous years, March to April is usually the peak period for maintenance of domestic PTA equipment. In the first half of 2020, due to the greater decline in raw material prices, although PTA prices fell to historical lows due to the double blow of the epidemic and the commissioning of new production capacity, PTA processing fees did not fall but rose. Since then, international oil prices have bottomed out and rebounded, leading to an overall rise in the kinetic energy sector. Due to different efforts to expand production capacity, the price increase from top to bottom of the industrial chain has gradually narrowed. PTA processing fees have also been compressed, but they are still at a relatively considerable level. Therefore, at that time, PTA Enterprises have a strong willingness to produce, and many equipment maintenance plans have been postponed or canceled.
In 2021, raw material prices will continue to rise. In February and March, PXACP negotiations in Asia were reached at US$705/ton and US$870/ton respectively. Domestic PTA processing fees have been significantly compressed. , PTA companies are more willing to proactively carry out maintenance. According to the current plan, the annual production capacity of domestic PTA equipment planned for maintenance in March was 11.05 million tons, accounting for 18.59% of the effective production capacity; the annual production capacity of domestic planned maintenance equipment in April was 3.7 million tons, accounting for 6.22% of the effective production capacity. As of March 18, the annual production capacity of domestic PTA devices in shutdown status was 11.74 million tons. Although the 2.5 million tons/year unit of Hengli Petrochemical Line 4 is about to complete maintenance and restart, there are still many large-scale units including Hengli Petrochemical Line 1 and Line 5 scheduled for maintenance in the future, and the start-up of PTA units will continue to remain at At a low level of around 80%, the pressure on the PTA supply side will be eased. As of March 18, the daily operating rate of domestic PTA plants was 80.25%, a decrease of 10.25 percentage points from February 10 and an increase of 10.31 percentage points from the same period in 2020. Based on estimates of effective production capacity, domestic PTA daily output is approximately 130,700 tons, a decrease of 13,600 tons from February 10 and an increase of 30,600 tons from the same period in 2020.
On the other hand, short-term PTA demand still has certain support. During the annual Spring Festival holiday, as non-local employees return home for the holiday, the operation of polyester factories and even terminal looms will drop to the lowest level in the year, and production will not fully resume until after the Lantern Festival. During the Spring Festival of 2021, various regions advocated “celebrating the New Year in situ”. The start-up of polyester factories was slightly higher than the same period in previous years. At the same time, the speed of non-local employees returning to work after the holiday was significantly faster than in previous years. Therefore, polyester factories and…The start-up of high-end looms picked up quickly after the holiday. As of March 18, the daily operating rate of polyester factories was 91.19%, an increase of 13.01 percentage points from February 10 before the holiday, and an increase of 13.37 percentage points from the same period in 2020.
At the end of February, driven by the rapid resumption of work by downstream companies and the expected recovery in terminal foreign trade orders, the polyester market was booming, and the production and sales of various varieties increased significantly. However, as optimism cooled down and after the completion of centralized replenishment, companies were less willing to proactively acquire goods in the face of high-priced supply, the polyester market trading became flat, and the production and sales of various varieties returned to the normal pulse-like recovery trend. Although market trading is light, as the current inventory levels of various varieties are acceptable and short fiber inventories are still negative, the start-up of downstream polyester and other equipment is expected to remain high, and there will still be support for the PTA demand side in the short term.
Huge PTA inventory may become the norm
Since the rapid accumulation of inventory in the first half of 2020 , Domestic PTA social inventory has remained at around 4 million tons for a long period of time; during the 2021 Spring Festival holiday, due to the holiday shutdown of downstream companies and domestic PTA devices continuing to maintain normal production, social inventory accumulated again. With the rapid resumption of work by polyester and terminal weaving enterprises after the holiday, and the increase in maintenance of PTA equipment, PTA social inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks and the decline has gradually expanded, but the absolute amount of inventory is still above 4 million tons. During the same period, the PTA warehouse receipt inventory, which was once the “reservoir” of inventory, also continued to decline. A large amount of futures inventory flowed into the spot market, making PTA spot inventory basically stable. On March 19, PTA social inventory was 4.111 million tons, a decrease of 237,500 tons from the previous high, and an increase of 1.061 million tons from the same period in 2020; PTA warehouse receipt inventory was 1.7808 million tons, a decrease of 201,700 tons from the previous high, and an increase of 1.061 million tons from the same period in 2020. In the same period of 2020, there was an increase of 1.0991 million tons.
Although the maintenance of PTA devices has increased recently and the start-up of downstream devices has remained high, which has caused the domestic PTA social inventory to continue to decline, due to the large amount of new PTA production capacity in 2021, and the downstream polyester production capacity The expansion speed is difficult to keep up with its pace. Therefore, in the long run, PTA inventory accumulation pressure will still be high, and huge inventory may become the norm.
At the same time, the compression space of PTA is limited due to poor processing, and the cost-end effect is enhanced. In 2021, the pressure to expand domestic PTA production capacity will be even greater than in 2020, and PTA processing differences will also face stronger narrowing pressure. As many countries begin to implement the new crown vaccination plan, the market is optimistic about the global economic recovery. OPEC+ slows down its production increase plan and Saudi Arabia unexpectedly voluntarily cuts additional production, which boosts international oil prices. PX prices oscillate under the pressure of rising oil prices and positive demand. With the price rising, the PTA processing gap was further compressed to around 300 yuan/ton, and the lowest was as low as 200 yuan/ton.
At present, the latest series of PTA devices put into production in China have significantly reduced the consumption of raw materials and auxiliary materials and power due to the large single-set production capacity base and the application of new technologies. Fixed processing Lowest cost. It is understood that the fixed processing costs of the newly put into production Hengli Petrochemical and other units can be reduced to as low as 300-350 yuan/ton. According to the current PTA processing gap, most domestic devices have no processing profits. Even new devices with the lowest fixed processing costs have very little processing profits left. If the recent sharp increase in the price of auxiliary acetic acid is taken into account, the current domestic All PTA units are already at a loss, so there is limited room for PTA prices to fall further in the short term, and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on PTA price trends is increasing. As of March 19, the PTA processing margin was 378.41 yuan/ton, which was 209.74 yuan/ton narrower than the same period in 2020.
In summary, as the cost-side effect increases, PTA prices fluctuate widely in the short term; in the medium and long term, domestic production capacity expansion pressure remains Larger, PTA price trend is weak. In the later stage, we need to focus on the progress of new domestic equipment being put into production. </p
