Overview
External crude oil continued to rise sharply in February. The monthly increase of the main contract of Brent 05 is 17.96%, which is basically close to the increase of PTA. The monthly increase of the main WTI 04 contract reached 18.53%, and Goldman Sachs raised its average crude oil price forecast. Naphtha profits widened slightly, and the PX-NPT spread recovered significantly.
PTA:
The average spot price of PTA was 4,745 yuan/ton on February 26, and the monthly price was 4,745 yuan/ton. The average price was 4178.3 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 410.3 yuan from the average last month, and the monthly spot increase was 10.89%. TA’s spot processing gap narrowed significantly by 54 yuan compared with January. The monthly increase of the main contract of TA2105 was 18.63%. The main processing difference of TA disk narrowed significantly by 90 yuan compared with the average value of the previous month. Changes in supply and demand: PTA continues to accumulate inventory, and supply and demand are expected to improve at the end of the month. The PTA load was 85.4% last Friday. On the demand side, the polyester load rebounded to 88.6% last Friday, and the load recovery was higher than expected. After the holiday, the operating rate in the lower reaches of Jiangsu and Zhejiang rebounded rapidly, and the recovery rate was faster than the same period in previous years. As of the end of the month, the load of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has rebounded significantly to 56%, the comprehensive texturing load has rebounded significantly to 71%, the manufacturing operation rate in South China has rebounded to 24%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has rebounded significantly to 43%.
Ethylene glycol:
The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol rose sharply to 6,350 yuan/ton on February 26, and the average monthly intraday price was approximately 5331 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 810.5 yuan from the average last month, an increase of 17.93%. As of February 22, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was approximately 670,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons from the previous period. Shipments gradually picked up after the holidays, and there was almost no inventory during the Spring Festival. Affected by the extremely cold weather in North America, American equipment was intensively shut down and restarted slowly, affecting imports in April and beyond. As of February 25, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol has rebounded to 75.40% (previous value: 71.74%), of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol has rebounded to 65.44% (previous value: 60.27%). Domestic supply continues to rebound. In March, a significant destocking of around 120,000 tons is expected. In April, the destocking range narrows to around 80,000 tons. In May and June, destocking is expected to begin, with the monthly accumulation range around 130,000 tons.
Cost and profit
1 Raw material market
1.1 Crude oil, PX
NPT (cfr Japan) average price in February was US$566/ton, a sharp increase of US$53 from the average price in January /Ton. On February 26, it was US$600/ton. Crude oil prices continued to rise sharply in February. The monthly increase of the main contract of Brent 05 is 17.96%, which is basically close to the increase of PTA. The monthly increase of the main WTI 04 contract reached 18.53%, and Goldman Sachs raised its average crude oil price forecast. The average price difference between naphtha and Brent last month was around US$110, slightly wider than the January average by more than US$3, and the price difference at the end of the month was US$114. The average price difference between naphtha and WTI this month was US$133, slightly wider than the January average. The price difference was nearly 3 US dollars, and the price difference at the end of the month was nearly 148 US dollars. Naphtha as a whole followed the sharp rise of crude oil, and the price difference widened slightly. PX (cfr China) continued to rise sharply in February, with the monthly average price rising to around US$782, a significant increase of US$97, or 14.13%, from the average price in January. The PX-NPT spread widened significantly during the month, and the spread widened to over 280 at the end of the month. The average value in February was 215.7, which was significantly wider than January by $44.1. The spread increased by as much as 25.72%, and PX profits were significantly restored. PX China’s average monthly operating rate in February was 80%, a sharp rebound of 4.19% from January; Asia’s PX average monthly operating rate in February was 76.40%, a slight decrease of 0.13% from the previous month.
2 Cost and profit changes
As the price of ethylene glycol rose sharply after the holiday, all ethylene glycol process routes turned losses into profits. Among them, coal-based profits expanded significantly, and the cash flow of Inner Mongolia coal-based ethylene glycol has greatly expanded to more than 1,600 yuan. Cash flow from external ethylene production to ethylene glycol widened sharply to $111 in February. Naphtha-based ethylene glycol also widened significantly to $173 at the end of the month. The cash flow of the methanol MTO production route also turned a profit in late February, with a profit of more than 450 yuan at the end of the month.
Supply
1 Equipment maintenance status
PTA domestic installation: on The weekly PTA load basically remained stable at 85.4%. The new device, Fujian Baihong, has a line with a production capacity of 1.25 million tons, input materials at 1.21, and products at 1.23. The other line with a production capacity of 1.25 million tons has produced products before the festival. The current overall load is 80-90%; Honggang Phase 2 is planned to be put into production in the near future. The load of Reignwood’s 1.4 million-ton unit has been increased to 90%, and the load of the 1-million-ton unit has been reduced to 90%. With the PTA spot processing gap significantly reduced on 23rd, the PTA equipment’s recent maintenance plan has increased. Hengli’s multiple units plan to undergo maintenance in March-April; Reignwood, Xinfengming and BP plan to perform maintenance in March. At the end of the month, the processing gap rebounded significantly under the influence of expectations for improvement in supply and demand.
Table 1: PTA’s recent major device changes
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
Ethylene glycol domestic installation: The total domestic supply continues to rebound. As of February 25, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol has rebounded to 75.40% (previous value 71.74%), of which coal-to-ethylene glycol090905252012.png”>
1.2 Polyester Inventory
As of February 26, POY, FDY, and DTY equity of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester factories Inventories are at 4.9, 14.9, and 20.8 days respectively. POY inventory at the end of this month increased slightly by 3.5 days compared with the end of last month, FDY monthly inventory increased by 4.7 days month-on-month, and DTY monthly inventory decreased slightly by 1 day. Polyester staple fiber maintained negative inventory, and was destocked monthly in February 1.2 days, and the inventory at the end of the month was -5.2 days. The inventory of polyester bottle flakes was significantly accumulated for 7 days this month, and the inventory at the end of the month was less than 20 days. The profits of polyester products continued to expand last month. As of the end of the month, the average profit of filament was 460 Yuan. Staple fiber profit was 935 yuan at the end of the month. Bottle flake profit was 566 yuan/ton at the end of the month. Polyester staple fiber inventory remained at the lowest level for the same period in the past; polyester bottle flake inventory rebounded to the second-highest level for the same period in the past at the end of the month; polyester filament inventory It is the second lowest or lowest level in history, especially as inventory destocking continues after the holidays, the inventory pressure is very small.
2 Terminal situation
The operating rate in the lower reaches of Jiangsu and Zhejiang rebounded rapidly last week, and the recovery speed was faster than the same period in previous years. As of the end of the month, the load of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has rebounded significantly to 56%, the comprehensive texturing load has rebounded significantly to 71%, the manufacturing operation rate in South China has rebounded to 24%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has rebounded significantly to 43%.
The gray fabric inventory of sample companies in the Shengze area dropped sharply in February. By the end of the month, the inventory dropped to 38.5 days, and the inventory level dropped to the equilibrium level of the same period in previous years. The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City increased by 27% year-on-year in January and increased significantly by 164% year-on-year in February. This year’s Lunar New Year has minimal impact on terminals. </p
