Most people are optimistic about the textile market after the epidemic. As the epidemic gradually eases, the polyester market is also recovering at an alarming rate.
Although there are still many new confirmed cases of the new crown epidemic every day, polyester sales and prices are steadily increasing. Oil prices continued to rebound during the Spring Festival holiday, vaccines are making good progress, and the global trade environment has improved under the new U.S. government. Cold wave weather in the United States has also shut down many ethylene glycol units, triggering supply concerns. After the holiday, ethylene glycol futures frequently hit the limit. situation. PTA Yisheng’s Hainan unit was unexpectedly shut down during the holidays, and the overall supply was lower than market expectations. The increase in oil prices boosted market sentiment, providing short-term support to the market. Double raw materials showed a sharp increase after the holiday.
With strong boost from the cost side, on February 22, 2021, the price of polyester bottle flakes and water bottle materials in the East China market reached 6,650 yuan/ton.
At the same time, polyester filament companies have successively raised their quotations, and the market has increased by a total of 600-700 yuan/ton. As of now, the reference price for POY150D/48F in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 7450-7650 yuan/ton, the reference price for FDY150D/96F is 7550-7675 yuan/ton, and the reference price for DTY150D/48F is 8950-9100 yuan/ton. Prices have finally returned to pre-pandemic levels.
Excessive growth increases market risks
End users “down “Order” began to hesitate
According to statistics before Longzhong Festival, downstream weaving companies resumed work later than polyester production companies. However, due to the government’s promotion of celebrating the New Year in situ this year, about 30% Many migrant workers choose to stay in the local area for the holidays, and polyester filament prices continue to rise. In addition, the epidemic was well controlled during the Spring Festival, and low-risk areas did not need to be quarantined after the holiday. Many factors ensured the orderly resumption of work after the holiday and shortened the time for resumption of work. Ahead of schedule, the comprehensive start-up rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has increased to 44.50% as of February 24. It is expected that the weaving start-up load will increase to 80-90% by the end of February, and the weaving industry will basically resume normal operation in early March. However, due to the rapid growth of polyester and raw materials at this stage, the excessive growth has aggravated market risks. The downstream mentality is cautious, and end users are hesitant to “place orders”. The orders of weaving enterprises have not yet seen a significant improvement after the holiday.
Based on the current situation, the cost-side support can last until around mid-March. Can this round of price increases be transmitted downward to the terminal, and whether the increase will affect polyester filament 3 The key to monthly market trends. Before the holiday, gray fabrics were sold at a loss, and the overall inventory pressure was not great. Recently, gray fabrics have followed the rise of polyester, and their quotations have been raised one after another. It is said that some traders are also collecting large quantities of fabrics. After the holiday, gray fabric inventories also show a downward trend.
Therefore, we expect that before mid-March, polyester filament yarns will continue to fluctuate and warm, and there is still some room for upward growth in transactions. During this period, due to fluctuations in raw materials, there will be a certain degree of adjustment, but there is no adjustment for the time being. Downgrade risk. However, after mid-March, terminal demand gradually became clear, and the excessive rise suppressed terminal demand to a certain extent. Therefore, market negotiations became stagnant after mid-March, and there was a risk of decline. </p
