PTA: continues to rise sharply, pointing to the 5,000 mark
Recently, crude oil is the leader The chemical industry chain has set off a wave of rising tide. As the most active chemical product, PTA has continued to rise sharply. Today, its price rose to 4882 at the daily limit, setting a new high since 2020. The main reasons for its short-term price continued to rise are: The following points:
First of all, the general environment continues to improve. Positive progress in global epidemic prevention in 2020 has boosted expectations for global economic recovery. In 2020, our country’s economy became the only major economy in the world to achieve positive economic growth. During the Spring Festival, the performance of the consumer market was even more exciting, and the overall economic recovery was relatively certain. From the perspective of the external environment, the Eurozone PMI in February significantly exceeded expectations, and the Japanese PMI once again stood in the prosperous range. Combined with the fiscal strength of the United States, it once again ignited the enthusiasm for global economic recovery. The macro fundamentals are all improving, driving the rise in commodity prices. grow rapidly.
Secondly, the heavy snowfall in the United States has hindered crude oil extraction, and the sharp rise in crude oil prices has driven the chemical industry The center of gravity of the product market has shifted upward. Last week, North America was affected by the worst extreme cold weather in 30 years, which caused the overall production of U.S. crude oil to drop by 3.5-4 million barrels per day. However, the market underestimated the reduction in oil production in Texas due to bad weather, and even the bad weather has already affected The start-up of most chemical equipment has caused a sharp increase in oil prices and downstream chemical prices.
Before the Spring Festival to the present, the prices of both naphtha and PX have gone out of the range. The wave rebounded smoothly, and the crack price difference between PX and naphtha was also constantly repaired. As of the 22nd, the PX cracking spread remained at 225.75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 16.44 percentage points from before the holiday. On the other hand, the processing fees of PTA are constantly being squeezed. As of this week, the processing fee has remained at around 260 yuan/ton. If calculated based on a processing fee of 500 yuan, the current production cost of PTA is 4,600 yuan/ton, supporting a sharp increase in its price.
Once again, the decline in device operating rates led to supply contraction supporting price increases. During the Spring Festival, Hainan Yisheng’s 2 million tons and Shanghai Petrochemical’s 400,000 tons units have entered maintenance, causing the operating rate to drop 3.57 percentage points from before the holiday to 85.5%. In addition, the production capacity of maintenance equipment is expected to reach more than 16 million tons from March to April, and the production capacity of Honggang Petrochemical Phase II 2.5 million tons new equipment is slightly delayed, which once again boosts the overall strengthening of market confidence.
Finally, downstream demand gradually picked up, which also gave strong support to the market. In terms of polyester, the operating rate of downstream polyester market devices has increased to varying degrees after the holiday. As of the 24th, the comprehensive operating rate of polyester remained at 88.85%, an increase of 9.6 percentage points from before the holiday, and the prices and profits of various varieties have increased. A new high in recent times. In particular, the profit of short fiber is nearly 1,000 yuan/ton, and manufacturers are in an oversold state before the holiday. Various varieties of filament have also shown a significant improvement. The profits of polyester POY and polyester DTY have also turned positive, while polyester FDY Although the profits are not above the 0 line, there has also been a significant increase, laying a good foundation for the recent strong rise in the PTA market.
Overall, the overall market atmosphere in the short term is relatively strong, but mid- and long-term considerations The situation of oversupply of PTA has not been effectively improved yet, which may restrict the rebound space of prices in the future, so operate with caution.
Grey cloth market: Customers are rushing to buy gray cloth, fearing that it will rise too much in the future
Recent gray cloth How hot is the market? I’m afraid you won’t believe me if I tell you. I can’t even call the big truck that pulls the goods. “We have been very busy recently. In the past, we only had one load of cloth a day, but now we can have three or four loads a day. Several colleagues around me have several loads of cloth almost every day. We cooperate with the weaving factory here, and now we basically have It’s already very difficult to go outside and call for a taxi,” said a large truck driver in Shengze area.
“We have delivered three trucks today, and there are still a few more trucks that have not been delivered. We can’t call a truck. It is almost impossible to find a truck on the market now.” !” said a textile boss who specializes in imitation silk.
“From the beginning to now, we have at least three or four trucks of goods every day, which is not too much. We have dedicated truck drivers in the factory. It’s really hard to hail a taxi outside for a while,” said another textile boss in the Shengze area.
The “Gold, Three, Silver and Four” have not yet arrived, but the peak season has appeared in advance. Why do customers choose to place orders now? In the past few days, the price of gray fabrics has been rising rapidly like a scourge. Many gray fabrics have increased by 1-2 yuan/meter. On the first day of the new year, the most popular news in textile people’s circle of friends is the price increase. Customers who placed orders years ago It’s like making 100 million. “We started taking orders during the Chinese New Year, and we took about 40,000 to 500,000 meters. The prices of the orders we received recently have all increased. SPH fabrics have increased by 0.4-0.5 yuan/meter, and fake twist satin has increased. It has increased by 0.3 yuan/meter. Fortunately, the increase is not very big now, but it will definitely increase in the future.” said a textile boss in Shengze area.
Obviously, customers are rushing to place orders now because they are afraid that prices will continue to rise later. After all, raw material prices have always been rising, and now The orders will still use the raw materials purchased years ago, and the price is still cheap. Once the raw materials at the current price are used,In terms of production, the price increase may not be even 10 cents or 20 cents.
For example, the price of the above-mentioned SPH fabric has increased by 0.4-0.5 yuan/meter, but it is understood that according to the current price of raw materials, the cost has increased by 1 yuan/meter. , now you can make a profit if you buy it at such a price!
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