Since the second half of last year, affected by factors such as overcapacity reduction and tight international relations, the price of raw materials has been soaring. After the holiday, the “tide of price increases” “The flood surged again, with the increase even reaching more than 90%… The pressure from the upstream “price increase tide” was transmitted to the downstream industries, and had varying degrees of impact.
According to incomplete statistics, since February, due to the continued rise in prices of upstream raw materials, nearly a hundred companies have collectively announced price increases, involving viscose, polyester yarn, spandex, nylon, dyes, etc. Dozens of chemical fiber raw materials.
The quotations for raw materials in the textile industry have risen sharply, and prices are like riding on an elevator. The entire textile foreign trade circle is full of price increase notices. According to the analysis of many people in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the industry chain, this round of price increases for various raw materials has been fierce and lasting. Some raw materials with strong price increases are even “time-based”, with prices quoted in the morning and adjusted in the afternoon. . It is predicted that this round of price increases for various raw materials will be a systematic price increase in the industrial chain. Along with the shortage of supply in the upstream of raw materials and the rapid increase in prices, it may continue for some time.
Part 1
Viscose staple fiber prices rose nearly 90% in half a year %
From 8,300 yuan per ton in August last year to nearly 15,800 yuan per ton currently, the price of viscose staple fiber has increased by nearly 90% in half a year! The current quotation of viscose staple fiber is between 15,500 yuan/ton and 15,800 yuan/ton, which has increased by more than 4,000 yuan/ton since the beginning of 2021.
The person in charge of a listed company that produces viscose staple fiber said: “Since September last year, there has been basically zero inventory, and it has been full production and full sales.”
According to the investigation, this company’s situation is not unique. With the overall recovery of the textile industry, increased overseas demand, and the arrival of the traditional peak season for chemical fiber, domestic viscose staple fiber manufacturers are currently booming in both production and sales, and inventories are at low levels.
The downstream of viscose staple fiber is mainly used in yarns such as rayon yarn, blended yarn and non-woven fabrics. Before this round of price increases, the viscose fiber industry had experienced a long period of downturn. As competition intensified, companies with small production capacity and weak financial strength gradually withdrew, and a number of weak companies were successively replaced by larger and stronger companies. Corporate mergers and acquisitions integration. According to statistics, in 2020, the total production capacity of my country’s viscose staple fiber industry was approximately 5.21 million tons per year, with an output of 3.812 million tons. The annual capacity utilization rate dropped by 10.5% to 73.2%.
From the demand side, about 60% of the downstream of viscose staple fiber is rayon yarn. Affected by the epidemic, the demand for spunlace non-woven fabrics has increased significantly, driving the demand for viscose staple fiber to recover.
“With the recovery of the domestic textile industry, the downstream demand for viscose staple fiber has surged, and this is the scene at the company’s entrance every day. The company’s viscose staple fiber production line has been in full swing since last autumn. It is operating at full capacity,” a source told reporters.
Part 2
Cotton rose 20.27% year-on-year
According to statistics, as of February 22, the average price of domestic lint cotton spot market was 16,241 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.12% in just five days. Compared with 13,504 yuan/ton in 2020, it increased by 20.27% year-on-year. The recent rapid price rise is partly due to the improvement of the macro market atmosphere, the rebound in economic stimulus expectations after the epidemic in the United States is brought under control, the rise in U.S. cotton prices and the boost in downstream demand. As the February supply and demand report improved, U.S. cotton export sales remained strong and global cotton demand recovered, U.S. cotton prices continued to rise. On the other hand, textile companies started production earlier this year, and there was another round of replenishment after the Spring Festival, so order demand has accelerated. At the same time, the prices of many textile raw materials such as polyester staple fiber, nylon, and spandex in the domestic market have increased, which has contributed to the rise in cotton prices.
Internationally, U.S. cotton production decreased significantly in 2020/21. According to the latest USDA report, U.S. cotton production this year decreased by nearly 1.08 million tons from the previous year to 3.256 million tons. The USDA Outlook Forum has significantly increased global cotton consumption and total production in 2021/22, while also significantly reducing global cotton ending stocks. Among them, cotton demand from major textile countries such as China and India has once again increased. The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release the official intended cotton planting area on March 31. Brazil’s cotton planting progress is lagging behind, and the production forecast has been lowered. India’s cotton output is expected to be 28.5 million bales, a decrease of 0.5 million bales year-on-year, China’s output is 27.5 million bales, a decrease of 1.5 million bales year-on-year, Pakistan’s output is 5.8 million bales, an increase of 1.3 million bales year-on-year, and West Africa’s output is 5.3 million bales, an increase of 0.5 million bales year-on-year. .
In terms of futures, ICE cotton futures rose to the highest level in more than two and a half years. Factors such as continued improvement in demand, competition for land for grain and cotton, and optimism in the external market continue to trigger speculation. On February 23, the opening price of Zheng Cotton’s main contract 2105 was 16,325 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 16,405 yuan/ton, hitting a high of 16,500 yuan/ton. The domestic cotton market is in the stage of gradual recovery, and downstream enthusiasm for taking orders is not high. The main reason is that the quoted price of cotton resources has increased significantly and yarn companies themselves have pre-holiday reserves available. It is expected that market transactions will gradually return to normal after the Lantern Festival. In the thirteenth week of 2021 (February 22-February 26), the maximum price for Xinjiang cotton inbound bidding is 16,254 yuan/ton (equivalent to standard grade 3128B), an increase of 414 yuan/ton from last week.
Since mid-February, the price increase of cotton yarn in Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong and other places has been concentrated at 500-1,000 yuan/ton, and the price increase of high-count carded and combed cotton yarn of 50S and above has generally reached 1,000-1,300 yuan/ton. At present, the resumption rate of domestic cotton textile mills, fabrics, and clothing enterprises has returned to 80-90%, and a few yarn mills have begun to inquire and purchase raw materials such as cotton, polyester staple fiber, etc. As domestic sales and foreign trade orders arrive one after another from March to April, there are still some contracts that need to be fulfilled before the holiday. With the support of the external market and fundamentals, ICE and Zheng Cotton have formed a resonance, while downstream weaving, fabric companies and garment factories are expected to purchase from the end of February to early March. Quotations for cotton yarn, polyester-cotton yarn have risen sharply, and textile and garment enterprises have The pressure of cost growth needs to be transferred to downstream terminals at an accelerated pace.
Business Club analysts believe that under the background of multiple favorable conditions, domestic cotton prices have been rising. As the peak season of gold, silver and gold in the domestic textile industry is approaching, the market is generally optimistic about the market outlook, but it is also necessary to be wary of the impact of the new crown and the pressure caused by the cooling of the market’s enthusiasm for chasing gains.
Part 3
Spandex prices rise nearly 80%
After the Spring Festival holiday, the price of spandex continues to rise. According to the latest price monitoring of Zhuochuang Information, the latest price on February 22 was 55,000 yuan/ton to 57,000 yuan/ton. The price of spandex increased by nearly 30% during the month. Compared with the price low in August 2020, the price of spandex has increased. Nearly 80%.
According to relevant expert analysis, the price of spandex has increased since August last year, mainly due to a large-scale increase in downstream demand, and the inventory of production companies is generally low, and the supply of products exceeds demand. Furthermore, the price of PTMEG, the raw material for spandex production, has also risen sharply after the Spring Festival. The current price per ton has exceeded 26,000 yuan, which has stimulated the price increase of spandex to a certain extent.
A large number of overseas textile orders will be transferred to China in the second half of the year, which will provide a significant boost to the domestic spandex industry. Strong demand has driven up the price of spandex this round.
At present, spandex companies have started operations at high capacity, but the shortage of spandex products in the short term will still be difficult to alleviate. Domestic leading spandex companies Huafeng Chemical (002064), Taihe New Materials (002254.SZ) and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber are all preparing to build new production capacity, but these new production capacities cannot be started in the short term: according to a recent announcement by Huafeng Chemical, It is planned to invest 4.36 billion yuan in a new 300,000 tons/year differentiated spandex project within 6 years; Taihe New Materials currently has a production capacity of 15,000 tons in Yantai and 40,000 tons in Ningxia, and construction will probably start around the end of 2021.
Experts said that in addition to the relationship between supply and demand, the price increase of upstream raw materials has to a certain extent promoted the surge in spandex prices this time. The direct raw material of spandex is PTMEG. Since February, the price has increased by about 20%. The latest quotation has reached 26,000 yuan/ton. This is a chain reaction caused by the price increase of its upstream BDO. The latest quotation of BDO on February 23 was 26,000 yuan. / ton, up 10.64% from the previous day. Affected by this, the prices of PTMEG and spandex are unlikely to stop.
Part 4
Polyester prices are soaring
Just a few days after the holiday began, polyester filament prices soared. Due to the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic, the price of polyester filament began to plummet in February 2020, hitting the bottom on April 20. Since then, it has been fluctuating at low levels and has been hovering at historically low prices for a long time.
Starting from the second half of 2020, due to “import inflation”, the prices of various raw materials in the textile market began to rise. Polyester filament rose by more than 1,000 yuan/ton, and viscose short The price of fiber increased by 1,000 yuan/ton, and the price of acrylic staple fiber increased by 400 yuan/ton.
As of February 20 this year, polyester filament has rebounded to a position close to the low in 2019. If the rebound continues, it will reach the normal price of polyester in previous years.
Judging from the current quotations of PTA and MEG, the main raw materials for polyester yarn, there is still a certain upside in the future quotations of PTA and MEG against the backdrop of international oil prices returning to US$60. It can be concluded that there is still the possibility of rising polyester prices.
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