Recently, the chemical industry chain led by crude oil has set off a rising tide. As the most active chemical product, PTA hit the daily limit many times on the 24th and closed at 4718 at the end of the 25th, an increase of 4 percentage points from the 24th. Compared with The closing price before the holiday increased by 13.91 percentage points. The continued rise in short-term prices is mainly due to the following points:
First of all, the general environment continues to improve. Positive progress in global epidemic prevention in 2020 has boosted expectations for global economic recovery. In 2020, our country’s economy became the only major economy in the world to achieve positive economic growth. During the Spring Festival, the performance of the consumer market was even more exciting, and the overall economic recovery was relatively certain. From the perspective of the external environment, the Eurozone PMI in February significantly exceeded expectations, and the Japanese PMI once again stood in the prosperous range. Combined with the fiscal strength of the United States, it once again ignited the enthusiasm for global economic recovery. The macro fundamentals are all improving, driving the rise in commodity prices. grow rapidly.
Secondly, the heavy snowfall in the United States has hindered crude oil extraction, and the sharp rise in crude oil prices has pushed the focus of the chemical market upward. Last week, North America was affected by the worst extreme cold weather in 30 years, which caused the overall production of U.S. crude oil to drop by 3.5-4 million barrels per day. However, the market underestimated the reduction in oil production in Texas due to bad weather, and even the bad weather has already affected The start-up of most chemical equipment has caused a sharp increase in oil prices and downstream chemical prices.
Since the Spring Festival, both naphtha and PX prices have experienced a smooth rebound, and the cracking price difference between PX and naphtha is also constantly repairing. As of the 22nd, the PX cracking spread remained at 225.75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 16.44 percentage points from before the holiday. On the other hand, the processing fees of PTA are constantly being squeezed. As of this week, the processing fee has remained at around 260 yuan/ton. If calculated based on a processing fee of 500 yuan, the current production cost of PTA is 4,600 yuan/ton, supporting a sharp increase in its price.
Once again, the decline in device operating rates led to supply contraction and supported price increases. During the Spring Festival, Hainan Yisheng’s 2 million tons and Shanghai Petrochemical’s 400,000 tons units have entered maintenance, causing the operating rate to drop 3.57 percentage points from before the holiday to 85.5%. In addition, the production capacity of maintenance equipment is expected to reach more than 16 million tons from March to April, and the production capacity of Honggang Petrochemical Phase II 2.5 million tons new equipment is slightly delayed, which once again boosts the overall strengthening of market confidence.
Finally, downstream demand gradually picked up, giving strong support to the market.
After the holiday, the operating rate of downstream polyester market devices has increased to varying degrees. As of the 23rd, the comprehensive operating rate of polyester remained at 88.82%, an increase of 9.6 percentage points from before the holiday. , and the prices and profits of various varieties have hit recent highs. In particular, the profit of short fiber is nearly 1,000 yuan/ton, and manufacturers are in an oversold state before the holiday. Various varieties of filament have also shown a significant improvement. The profits of polyester POY and polyester DTY have also turned positive, while polyester FDY Although the profits are not above the 0 line, there has also been a significant increase, laying a good foundation for the recent strong rise in the PTA market.
Taken together, the overall market atmosphere in the short term is relatively strong. However, considering that the oversupply of PTA has not been effectively improved, it may restrict the room for price rebound in the future, so operate with caution.
Hengli Petrochemical actively responds to the rising prices of chemical products
“Recently, one chemical product is sold almost every day The price of PX has increased from 4,000 yuan per ton in October to November last year to nearly 6,000 yuan per ton now!” Wang Ritang, deputy director of the Planning and Operation Department of Hengli Refining and Chemicals, a subsidiary of Hengli Petrochemical, said while showing reporters PX and other chemicals Product price chart.
Since the end of last year, the prices of some chemical products have begun to rise, especially the recent general rise, which has ignited the chemical sector of the capital market. Industry insiders said that this round of chemical price increases has the long-term logic of supply-side structural reform, the mid-term logic of the impact of the epidemic, the return of overseas demand, and rising crude oil prices, and the short-term logic of weather factors.
The reporter’s investigation found that leading private refining and chemical companies such as Hengli Petrochemical maintain a consistent production rhythm at full capacity, strictly ensure the safe and smooth operation of production equipment, and give full play to the advantages of flexible production organization , timely adjust the production capacity of high-profit varieties to better seize market opportunities.
Actively respond
Recently, Wang Ritang has clearly felt that the customer delivery cycle is shortening and the shipping schedule is very tight.
The reporter saw at the dock of Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian Changxing Island) Industrial Park that trailers filled with bags of PTA shuttled back and forth at the dock. After unloading, the terminal crane transports the PTA to the cargo ship. Cargo ships loaded with products will sail to southern ports.
Wang Ritang said that he had predicted the price increase trend of chemical products before, but he did not expect that the momentum would be so strong in the near future. Acetic acid has increased from more than 2,000 yuan per ton in October last year to more than 5,000 yuan per ton now; petroleum benzene has increased from less than 5,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of this year to more than 6,000 yuan now; styrene has increased from less than 7,000 yuan per ton in early February this year to now. The price of ethylene glycol has increased from about 4,000 yuan per ton at the end of last year to more than 5,000 yuan per ton now; polypropylene has increased from more than 8,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of this year to more than 9,000 yuan per ton now.
It is understood that in the face of this round of chemical price increases, Hengli Petrochemical has always maintained high-load and stable operation, with products at full production and sales, and low inventory in the factory. Even during the worst period of the epidemic early last year, Hengli Petrochemical Refinery still maintained a high load factor of about 100%. In 2020, Hengli Petrochemical Refinery�Top level. “Such a layout enables the company to be at the leading level in base-based comprehensive supporting facilities such as energy, transportation, logistics, etc., and can achieve excess profits based on core competitive advantages based on production capacity, structure and operations.” Executive Deputy General Manager of Hengli Refining and Chemicals, Chief Engineer Peng Guangqin said.
In recent years, the tightening of environmental protection has forced some small and medium-sized enterprises to continuously liquidate. The constraints of industrial parks and environmental capacity have been superimposed, restricting the disorderly expansion of production capacity, and putting great pressure on the survival and development of small and medium-sized enterprises. In terms of technology, leading companies rely on improved processes such as self-created or outsourced patented technologies to continuously cultivate and strengthen their own technological innovation capabilities, with obvious comprehensive advantages in cost and technology. In addition, leading chemical companies have stronger financial strength and have built industrial clusters supporting the entire industry chain.
“After multiple cycles, my country’s leading chemical companies have established multiple barriers and are expected to continue to enhance their international competitiveness in future development.” He Xiong said.
“Relying on the advantage of integrated production capacity, the company has used lower total operating costs and better product structure to lock in generous profits across the entire industry chain. This round of rising chemical prices has helped To further enhance the company’s profitability,” Li Feng said.
The implementation of the integrated refining and chemical project has made Hengli Petrochemical become a large private refining and chemical giant. The balanced upstream and downstream production capacity mix and coordinated production capacity integration cost advantages allow the company to adjust its production plan and optimize its product structure with greater scope and space. It further enriches its technical reserves for the future market, continuously enhances its comprehensive competitiveness, and becomes more responsive to the market. .
Take the recently popular degradable plastics as an example. As early as August 2019, Kanghui Petrochemical, a subsidiary of Hengli Petrochemical, began to cooperate with Dalian University of Technology to independently develop “PBS “Biodegradable polyester-like new material” production formula. With the advantages of being recyclable, easy to recycle, non-toxic and harmless, and highly safe, this material is suitable for applications in the food-grade field and is mainly used to make shopping bags, tableware, straws, etc. This product has high market recognition and strong profitability, and has achieved full production and sales.
Since the end of last year, Hengli Petrochemical has put into production and signed contracts for degradable plastic projects with an annual production capacity of 933,000 tons. Hengli Petrochemical will become the largest production base of degradable new materials in China. </p
