Overview
External crude oil rose sharply last week, Brent crude oil was close to 60 US dollars / ton last week, external crude oil rose sharply last week, Brent crude oil was close to 60 US dollars / ton during the week, Brent 04 The main contract’s weekly increase was 8.2%. The main WTI03 contract has a weekly increase of 9.46%. The main SC crude oil 2103 contract also rose sharply last week, with a weekly increase of 6.9%. The domestic epidemic situation has partially counterattacked. As of the reporting period, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States exceeded 25.41 million, and the number of deaths exceeded 425,000. India and Brazil rank second and third in cumulative confirmed cases. Pay attention to vaccine progress and the domestic epidemic counterattack in winter.
PTA:
The average spot price of PTA rose to 4,010 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and then fell. to 3960 yuan. The main contract of TA2105 increased by 2.58% on a weekly basis, and the main processing gap of TA continued to narrow, narrowing to a low of 549 as of last Friday. TA’s spot processing gap once again compressed to a low of around 370 yuan last week. Changes in supply and demand: Both supply and demand are weak. Yisheng Ningbo’s 2 million tons has been shut down for maintenance since 1.24. It has restarted and has not released products yet; Yangzi’s 600,000 tons has dropped to 80%; Reignwood’s 1.4 million tons has dropped to 60-70%. The PTA load was 84.1%, and the load dropped again. The new facility, Fujian Baihong, has a line with a production capacity of 1.25 million tons, which feeds materials at 1.21 and produces products at 1.23. The current load is around 80%. Another line with a production capacity of 1.25 million tons is expected to be put into operation in the near future. On the demand side, the polyester load is still declining slightly. As of last Friday, the domestic polyester comprehensive load was 82.2%, and it is expected to rise to around 84.3% by the end of March. The terminal is on holiday, the texturing operation has dropped to 15%, the loom operation has dropped to 8%, and the overall operation of Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing factories has dropped to 2%. External crude oil prices rose sharply last week, with the PX-NPT processing spread widening to around $190.
Ethylene glycol:
The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol rose sharply to 4,913 yuan/ton in the first half of the week. It continued to fall in the second half of the week, falling to 4,783 yuan/ton on Friday, and rose again to 4,860 yuan/ton on Sunday. As of February 1, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was approximately 669,000 tons, a slight decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous period. The arrival forecast last week was around 163,000 tons, but the actual arrival was 143,000 tons. The arrival forecast last week increased slightly to around 190,000 tons. Overseas supply may rebound slightly in March. Shipments during the week are neutral to above. During the Spring Festival, the inventory accumulation was about 110,000 tons. The overall inventory pressure was not great in February, and it is expected that the inventory pressure will pick up in March. Overseas supply may rebound slightly in March. Deliveries within the week are neutral and the inventory is expected to be around 110,000 tons during the Spring Festival. It is expected to go to the warehouse again in the second half of February. As of February 4, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 68.58% (previous value 64.6%), of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was 53.76% (previous value 54.92%). Domestic supply is expected to continue to recover. New equipment commissioning plan: New coal-based equipment is expected to contribute 142,000 tons from March to May, and satellite petrochemicals is expected to contribute 225,000 tons from April to May.
Cost and profit
1 Raw material market
NPT (cfr Japan) continued to rise last week, rising to US$550/ton on Friday. External crude oil rose sharply last week, with Brent crude oil approaching US$60 per ton during the week, and the main Brent 04 contract rising by 8.2% on a weekly basis. The main WTI03 contract has a weekly increase of 9.46%. The naphtha-Brent price gap fluctuated and widened during the week, reaching around US$114 last Friday; the naphtha-WTI price gap reached around US$132 last Friday. At the end of last month, the restart of the 1.6 million tons unit of Zhongjin Petrochemical was postponed to around February 20 due to a fault, and the PX loss increased by about 90,000 tons. The price of PX (cfr China) fluctuated and rose sharply last week, rising to US$735/ton last Friday, and the PX China load rebounded sharply. The operating rate in Asia has basically remained stable, and the PX-NPT spread fluctuated and widened to more than 200 US dollars last week before narrowing again to 180-190 US dollars.
2 Cost and profit changes
The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol rose sharply to 4,913 yuan/ton in the first half of the week, and continued to fall in the second half of the week, falling to 4,783 yuan/ton on Friday, and rose again to 4,860 yuan/ton on Sunday; prices near coal-based products rose sharply to After 4,500 yuan/ton, it fell to 4,400 yuan/ton on Sunday. Thermal coal prices in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi continued to fall, and coal production losses were significantly restored. The cash flow from external production of ethylene to ethylene glycol turned a profit, with a current slight profit of US$8/ton. The loss of ethylene glycol in the inner market has been greatly restored, and as of last Friday, the loss was only 12 yuan/ton. The profit of naphtha to ethylene glycol remained stable, with a profit of US$28/ton as of last Friday. The methanol price in East China fluctuated weakly during the week, while the price in North China fell sharply. The cash flow loss of the methanol MTO production route repaired to less than 900 yuan/ton during the week, and then intensified to more than 1,000 yuan/ton last Friday.
Supply
1 Equipment maintenance status
PTA Domestic Devices: Since one line of Fujian Baihong’s 2.5 million-ton PTA device was put into operation on January 21, and the other line is scheduled to be put into operation in early February, the PTA production capacity of this network will be adjusted to 60.13 million tons starting from February 2021. Yangzi Petrochemical’s 350,000-ton unit has been shut down since 11.3, and restart is pending; Hanbang Petrochemical’s 2.2 million-ton unit has been shut down for maintenance since 1.7; Yisheng Ningbo’s 2 million-ton unit has been shut down for maintenance since 1.24, and is currently restarting.The increment of �� accounts for 2%, and polyester production will rise to 84.3% by the end of March. From now to the end of March, the polyester recovery volume corresponds to an increase in demand for PTA of 184,000 tons and an increase in demand for ethylene glycol of 76,000 tons.
Table 3: Recent major changes in polyester equipment:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
1.2 Polyester inventory and profit
As of last Friday, Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester factory POY , FDY, and DTY equity inventories are at 7.3, 12.4, and 17.8 days respectively. Considering negative inventory, the comprehensive inventory is lower than this level. Currently, all polyester products are profitable. Polyester staple fiber stocks rebounded slightly to -3.4 days. The average inventory of polyester bottle flakes continues to decline to around 10-13 days. Polyester staple fiber inventory remains at the lowest level for the same period in the past; polyester bottle flake inventory has also dropped to the lowest level for the same period in the past; polyester filament equity inventory has rebounded slightly this week, and is still at an equilibrium low level for the same period in the past. There is no pressure on polyester inventory before the holiday. big.
2 Terminal situation
Production was basically completed in the lower reaches of Jiangsu and Zhejiang last week, and payments are being collected. Texturing operations dropped to 15%, loom operations dropped to 8%, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing factory operations overall dropped to 2%. During the Spring Festival, it is expected that the loom operation rate will be around 4%, and the texturing operation rate will be 13%, which is not significantly different from previous years.
After the gray cloth inventory days of sample enterprises in Shengze area fell to 35 days in a pulse on 2.2 days, it rebounded again on 2.3 days. It is still the highest level for the same period in previous years. The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City increased significantly by 27% in January compared with the same period last year. The terminal is currently in the Spring Festival holiday mode, but it is expected that the transaction volume of China Textile City will still achieve a V-shaped rebound after the holiday this year. </p
