After breaking through 4,100 yuan/ton intraday on January 14, PTA entered a oscillating decline mode. On January 25, the PTA2105 contract fell to an intraday low of 3,852 yuan/ton. Although there is still some support for PTA from the cost side, the maintenance of polyester equipment increases before the Spring Festival holiday, and the pressure to increase PTA supply still exists. The contradiction between supply and demand intensifies, so PTA will mainly operate at a weak level.
The scope of polyester maintenance continues to expand
In late January, Yisheng Lian operated with reduced load The 2.25 million tons/year unit and the overhauled Fuhai Chuang 4.5 million tons/year unit have resumed normal operation, and the domestic PTA unit operation has once again increased to more than 90%. Although the 2 million tons/year unit of Yisheng Ningbo Line 3 has been shut down for maintenance for 15 days since January 24, half of the new 2.5 million tons/year production capacity unit of Fujian Baihong has started commissioning and commissioning in the afternoon of January 21, 1 High-quality products will be produced on February 24, and the other half of the production capacity is expected to be put into production in early February. In the later period, domestic PTA supply pressure will still be relatively large. As of January 29, the daily operating rate of domestic PTA equipment was 87.73%, an increase of 6.37 percentage points from the previous low; the daily domestic PTA output was approximately 136,900 tons, an increase of 16,100 tons compared with the same period in 2020.
As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the usual pre-holiday polyester equipment maintenance surge continues, and the scale of equipment involved in maintenance continues to expand. The latest published data shows that as of January 27, the domestic polyester device maintenance plan has been announced, involving an annual production capacity of 9 million tons, of which the annual production capacity of the polyester device under maintenance is 7.46 million tons, and in 2020 As of December 31, 2019, the annual production capacity involved in the maintenance plan and the annual production capacity of the polyester unit under maintenance were 6.92 million tons and 3.07 million tons respectively. The increase in polyester units being shut down for maintenance has led to a continued decline in the recent start-up of polyester end units, and the demand for PTA was weak before the Spring Festival. As of January 28, the polyester device operation rate was 78.11%, an increase of 5.23 percentage points from the same period in 2020, and a decrease of 7.21 percentage points from the high point at the beginning of the month; the daily domestic polyester output is approximately 135,400 tons, an increase of 17,100 tons from the same period in 2020. Ton.
Processing fees are further compressed
Due to the substantial expansion of domestic PTA production capacity in 2020 and the long-term operation At a high level, the domestic PTA supply has increased significantly, resulting in domestic PTA inventories remaining at a high level for a long time in 2020. Entering 2021, high PTA inventory continues. As of January 29, domestic PTA social inventory was 3.9536 million tons, a significant increase of 1.9736 million tons compared with the same period in 2020; Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange’s PTA futures warehouse receipt inventory was 1.8684 million tons, a significant increase of 1.7127 million tons compared with the same period in 2020. In the later period, the supply pressure of PTA is still high but the demand performance before the holiday is weakening. Domestic PTA inventory may once again enter a state of accumulation. The continued high inventory pressure will also continue to suppress PTA prices.
In late January, the continuous decline in PTA prices caused its processing fees to be further compressed, fluctuating around 400 yuan/ton since January 18. In the stage of substantial expansion of production capacity, as downstream demand is difficult to keep up with the increase in supply, it is basically a “certainty” that PTA processing fees will be reduced. However, the processing fee of about 400 yuan/ton is already lower than most of the market that has been put into production for a long time. The fixed cost of processing of early devices, even for the latest generation of devices put into production, is currently approaching its fixed cost, which indicates that there is limited room for further compression of PTA processing costs in the future.
With the possibility of a deep drop in international oil prices and the oscillation of PX prices, PTA is still receiving support from the cost side in the near future. As of January 29, the domestic PTA processing fee was 345.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 380.17 yuan/ton compared with the same period in 2020.
From the perspective of both supply and demand, domestic PTA supply is expected to further increase under the influence of the restart of equipment and the commissioning of new production capacity. On the demand side, the performance of polyester equipment has weakened due to the increase in maintenance, and the supply and demand situation of PTA is weak before the Spring Festival. With the contradiction between supply and demand expected to intensify, PTA inventory pressure will continue to be suppressed. On the whole, we believe that although there is still some support on the cost side of PTA in the short term, the weakness of its own fundamentals will make the overall trend of PTA weak before the Spring Festival. </p
