Introduction: After the previous round of rise, ethylene glycol gradually entered a range-bound trend. Judging from the disk, it reached a high of 4,500 at the beginning of the month and then declined. After four days of consolidation, it reached a high of 4,500 again. Why did Chun rise this time?
Ethylene glycol has had a good start after New Year’s Day, and term prices have soared. In recent times, cost drivers have played a role that cannot be underestimated as the bottom support for ethylene glycol. In addition, the supply and demand side has The blessing has the effect of fueling the flames. At present, port inventories continue to decline, the commissioning of new equipment is less than expected, the supply side is temporarily under little pressure, and the downstream polyester end construction is still supported at a high level. In the first quarter, foreign equipment maintenance seems to be intensive, mostly concentrated in the United States, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. , the import increase may be limited. Driven by this sentiment, the current price of the next period will increase simultaneously.
Cost drivers remain strong
Thanks to OPEC+’s continued production cuts and Saudi Arabia’s additional production cuts, oil prices have been boosted, and U.S. crude oil has exceeded It is expected that the reduction in inventory and additional production cuts by Saudi Arabia will accelerate the unloading of oil stored in offshore tankers, and may further clear the inventory under the support of strong demand in Asia. Crude oil prices have stabilized at the 50 mark, and cost has become a strong backing for ethylene glycol. Driven by costs, ethylene glycol is easy to rise but difficult to fall.
Benign support from the supply and demand side
Domestic construction starts remain at a low level. In addition, the maintenance of foreign equipment was relatively intensive in the first quarter. There will not be a surge in import volume in the short term. Due to intensive port closures some time ago and slow cargo unloading, inventories have continued to decline and are currently moderate. The equipment originally scheduled to be put into operation by the end of the year has been postponed, and the supply pressure is not great for the time being. Although there is a maintenance plan for the polyester terminal before the Spring Festival, the current start-up rate is around 86%, and the demand for ethylene glycol is still supported.
Maintenance status of some foreign devices:
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
In summary
Cost-driven supply and demand have pushed ethylene glycol to a higher level, although there are still Many new devices have been put into production, and downstream spring inspection demand is expected to weaken. However, under the influence of the bullish market macro atmosphere in the short term, ethylene glycol may maintain strong fluctuations. </p
