Zheng cotton rose across the board on Monday, with the main 2101 contract hitting a maximum of 15,305 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 5%, and then falling back. It closed at 14,935 yuan/ton in the afternoon, which was higher than the closing price on September 30. 2140 yuan/ton. Analysts said that Zheng cotton has been on a strong rise recently, and the rise in futures prices has made cotton farmers reluctant to sell, and the purchase price of seed cotton in Xinjiang has been rising sharply.
Short fiber has achieved six consecutive positives since its listing. There were three trading days last week. The daily limit rose again on Monday, closing at 6,596 yuan/ton. Analysts said that the current short fiber inventory is low and downstream stocking is active. However, compared with the upstream raw materials, the price of short fiber and its processing profit are on the high side. The price of short fiber is expected to be strong in the short term, and we need to pay attention to the changes in terminal demand and the price of upstream raw material PTA in the future.
After the National Day, natural rubber performed very strongly. It once hit the daily limit on Monday, hitting a high of 14,370 yuan/ton and then fell back. Analysts said that this round of strong rise in rubber is obviously driven by fundamentals. The main production areas, including my country’s Hainan production area, have been affected by heavy rainfall in recent times and the supply of raw materials is insufficient. In terms of downstream demand, domestic demand is stable and improving. The sales of passenger cars and heavy trucks continue to maintain a year-on-year increase. Overseas orders are gradually picking up. The current tire operating rate continues to remain high.
Yesterday, the main contract of Shanghai Bank of China fluctuated and rose. Analysts believe that European Central Bank President Lagarde said that “more measures will be taken if necessary.” This statement of trying to support the economy is bullish for European stocks and the euro, and the U.S. dollar index has fallen. It is one of the important factors that is bullish for silver. .
Zheng cotton surged higher and fell back
Zheng cotton rose across the board on Monday, and the main force The 2101 contract hit an intraday high of 15,305 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 5%, and then fell back. It closed at 14,935 yuan/ton in the afternoon, which was 2,140 yuan/ton higher than the closing price on September 30.
Li Shu’e, an analyst at Huarong Rongda Futures, told the Futures Daily reporter: “From the Zheng cotton trend chart on Monday, it is not difficult to find that the price of Zheng cotton has increased its position. Prices rose and positions were reduced, and the turnover rate on that day reached 263%. The market showed that some long funds had taken profits and left the market, and the risk of chasing the increase increased.”
According to Li Shu’e, for As far as the current ginners are concerned, the purchase cost of seed cotton for most cotton processing companies in Northern Xinjiang is within 14,500 yuan/ton. If the value preservation is profitable at the current market price, the willingness of Beijiang ginners to preserve value has increased. Although orders from downstream textile companies are currently scheduled to the end of December, follow-up orders are still unclear. If raw material prices continue to rise, textile companies will become more cautious and their willingness to buy will decrease. In addition, looking at the Zheng cotton futures market in recent years, the 15,500 yuan/ton line has been the central price in recent years. Comparing the current downstream market, we can find that the startup rate of textile enterprises this year is 60.9%, while it was basically above 63% in previous years. , it can be seen that the vitality of the downstream market has not yet fully recovered.
Ni Xiaowei, senior analyst of agricultural products at Zheshang Futures, believes that Zheng cotton has seen a strong upward trend recently, and the rise in futures prices has made cotton farmers reluctant to sell, and the purchase price of seed cotton in Xinjiang has been rising sharply. Due to the substantial increase in production lines in northern Xinjiang, the purchase price has soared from 5.3 yuan/kg to 6.8 yuan/kg. In the early days of southern Xinjiang, wadding cotton was the main product, and the purchase price of machine-picked cotton has recently been rising following the pace of northern Xinjiang. Hand-picked cotton can reach a maximum of 8 yuan/kg, and machine-picked cotton has also reached 7.1 yuan/kg. In her opinion, it should be noted that due to the intense rush to buy, there is currently no deduction for water and miscellaneous fees, and the deduction for water and miscellaneous fees may be recalculated later. Despite this, a large number of ginners’ costs may continue to rise due to insufficient processing capacity. The overall color grade of cotton this year is poor, the impurity content is high, and the quality is lower than that of the previous year. The rise of Zheng cotton has caused the price difference between internal and external prices to continue to narrow. The price difference between the 2101 contract and the 2105 contract has converged, and the room for convergence is expected to be limited.
On the downstream side, Ni Xiaowei said that due to the impact of the epidemic on demand in the early stage, textile factories had low raw material inventories and finished products were slow to ship. Subsequently, the support of the “Golden September, Silver October” and “Double Eleven” e-commerce activities caused a surge in orders and overloaded textile factory production, but the duration of the seasonal impact remains to be examined. In addition, the current state reserve inventory is low, but the market price is high. Due to cost considerations, the purchase and storage news may continue to be delayed. You need to continue to pay attention to the news on purchase and storage. Judging from USDA data, the decline in global cotton production in 2020/2021 is limited, while Xinjiang cotton production is relatively stable. U.S. cotton production has been reduced due to the impact of hurricanes, causing U.S. cotton to rise, thus supporting Zheng Cotton.
As for the cotton market outlook, Li Shu’e believes that cotton prices may be stable to strong in the short term. In the medium term, with the continued increase in pressure on the supply side and the increased willingness to hedge, cotton prices may be restrained. The price is rising, with the medium-term pressure range being 15,500-16,000 yuan/ton.
Ni Xiaowei suggested that we need to pay attention to the actual demand situation downstream in the near future. In her view, Zheng cotton is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, but as northern Xinjiang insurance policies gradually enter the market, and southern Xinjiang processing orders may follow up later, we still need to be wary of the surge in insurance policies.
Short fiber achieves six consecutive successes
Since the launch of short fiber It has achieved six consecutive positive days, with three trading days of daily limit last week, and another one-day limit this week, closing at 6,596 yuan/ton. <There is room for stabilization and recovery, and the bull market will continue. Risk points mainly include overseas economic policies, recurrence of epidemics, international trade relations, etc.
“From a technical perspective, short-term rubber is still strong. Against the background of confirmed production cuts for delivery products, fundamentals also have strong performance. The driving angle is still upward, but Considering that the price difference between whole milk and 3L and mixed rubber, which are both light-colored rubbers, is at a relatively high level, it is not recommended to chase long before new profits appear. The idea is to buy on callbacks and not short.” Zhao Luyang said.
Silver bulls “come back”
Yesterday, the main contract of Shanghai Silver The oscillation rises. Nanhua Futures precious metals analyst Xue Na believes that European Central Bank President Lagarde said that “more measures will be taken if necessary.” This statement of trying to support the economy is bullish for European stocks and the euro. The US dollar index has fallen, which is bullish for silver. one of the important factors. In addition, the price of silver fell to near the lower track of the ascending channel on Monday, and there is technically a demand for an increase.
According to Xue Na, in late September, gold and silver fell sharply in anticipation of another outbreak of the epidemic in the United States and Europe, but the decline was larger than the epidemic in the world. The first outbreak was smaller, mainly because the market was familiar with the epidemic, and there were positive developments in prevention, treatment, and vaccines, so the panic was obviously smaller than the first time. Since then, silver bottomed out and rebounded, but this rebound was extremely slow and tortuous, mainly because the decline was not large and the price was at a relatively high level. In addition, a very important reason is that the United States and Europe failed to actively launch a new round of rescue policies, especially It was the failure of Congress to pass a new rescue plan after the first round of the U.S. rescue plan expired at the end of July, which led to the weakening of the momentum of the U.S. economic recovery and made silver rise weak. Silver oscillated and fell last week.
“However, the current global economic recovery is still expected. The demand for most agricultural and industrial products is still recovering recently. The demand for silver is also expected to recover. The CRB index is also on an upward trend. Inflation Expectations also exist. Therefore, silver still has rising momentum in the near future, but it is not very strong.” Xue Na said that the current U.S. Congress has not denied that a new round of rescue agreement can be reached before the election, and will continue to pay attention to the progress of the U.S. rescue agreement negotiations and the European Whether the central bank will further ease and if stimulating policies are introduced, it will be relatively positive for silver. In the short term, against the background of economic recovery and rising inflation, silver will still oscillate strongly.
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