[Introduction] The “Golden Nine” polyester filament market demand is less than expected, and as autumn and winter orders such as Double Eleven are gradually sold out, the trading atmosphere of the polyester filament market has turned dim. Before the holiday, most users predict that it will be difficult to maintain stability during the National Day holiday. , it is expected that as the inventory pressure of enterprises increases in the later part of the holiday, market negotiations will gradually loosen, and the market will gradually enter a downward mode after the holiday. However, international oil prices rebounded, and local demand picked up. Under the double positive boost, polyester filament yarn has been booming during the holiday, and the market has continued to rise after the holiday. situation.
On the eve of the Double Festival, downstream stocking efforts are insufficient. Most users expect polyester stockpiles to be overstocked during the National Day, and a wave of promotions is expected after the festival. It is true that the production and sales of enterprises are under pressure in the early stage of the holiday. Some enterprises have loosened negotiations and promoted low prices, while most enterprises have stayed on the sidelines. After October 5, as the international oil price rebounded, the market atmosphere improved, and downstream willingness to purchase goods was strong. From October 6 to 7, the production and sales of polyester filament partially recovered, and some quotations were raised by 50-150 yuan/ton, and FDY and DTY were shipped. The situation is good, and the willingness of enterprises to increase increases has not diminished. However, the oil price trend continues to rise after the holiday. With the support of the cost side, the quotations of enterprises continue to rise by 50-150. However, polyester yarn cash flow losses were serious in the early stage, and enterprises have a strong willingness to protect their capital. Therefore, polyester yarn after the holiday has a strong willingness to maintain capital. The focus of silk trading continues to rise. At the close of trading, the mainstream discussion of POY 150D/48F was around 5,200 yuan/ton, which was 150-200 yuan/ton higher than before the holiday.
Source: Longzhong Information
As an important driving force for the increase in polyester filament prices during the National Day, oil prices have contributed indispensably. The uncertainty and concerns caused by the epidemic have weakened, the Norwegian oil workers are on strike, the U.S. fiscal stimulus plan is expected to be reached, Hurricane Delta is about to hit the U.S. Gulf region, and oil producers shut down offshore drilling platforms ahead of schedule. Driven by many factors, oil prices fluctuated and rose. Brain oil, PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol have risen one after another, and the cost pressure on polyester filament has become prominent.
Source: Longzhong Information
The rebound in oil prices has provided the initial impetus for the price increase in the polyester filament industry chain. The subsequent driving force comes from demand-side support. According to Longzhong’s research, downstream purchasing willingness increased in the later part of the holiday. Some companies reported that local production and sales picked up from October 6 to 8. The production and sales of some companies were 100-200%, and the production and sales of some companies were above 300%. The inventory pressure of enterprises has eased, and on the first trading day after the holiday, some polyester yarn production and sales continued to increase in volume.
Source: Longzhong Information
As shown in the figure above, the average daily production and sales are above 160%, and the higher production and sales are at 200% -400%. The production and sales of FDY and DTY in Xiaoshao area are good. Some POY factories have not increased much, mainly shipping, and the production and sales are around 200%-300%. Most users reported that DTY shipments were good during the National Day holiday. It is reported that the current market shipments of velvet fabrics in autumn are good, and market demand for home textiles, winter warm clothes, etc. has increased. Recently, industry players have paid more attention to the La Nina phenomenon and believe that it will be affected by the weather. The impact is that this year may be a “cold winter”, which has increased the demand for winter fabrics to a certain extent. During the National Day holiday, residents’ consumption levels have increased significantly, giving the market a certain confidence boost. However, the La Niña phenomenon refers to the abnormally cold seawater in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The situation is a relatively extreme weather change phenomenon, and it will also bring about global climate abnormalities. The emergence of the La Niña phenomenon will cause drought on the east coast of the world and humidity on the west coast. The sea water temperature will be lower than normal by more than 0.5°C for six consecutive months, and may even be accompanied by hurricanes, heavy rains, and severe cold. However, it does not mean that the trend of global warming will be reversed. National Day holiday Temperatures have dropped sharply, but it is still unknown whether there will be extremely severe weather in winter. Therefore, there are still many variables as to whether terminal demand will continue to pick up.
Currently, the volume and price of polyester filament yarns have risen after the holidays, so the market will maintain a warm atmosphere in the short term. Some quotations are still expected to rise tomorrow. However, winter fabric purchases are basically exhausted, and replenishment orders are required. The order situation is not enough to maintain the market rise, so the market downside risk is still relatively high after the middle of the year. </p
