According to statistics from relevant Indian departments, as of September 18, the cotton planting area in India was 12.947 million hectares, a year-on-year increase of 1.87% (data from the Indian Ministry of Agriculture is 12.9 million hectares of cotton planting area, a year-on-year increase of 2%), of which Except for Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, other states have not only increased the cotton planting area, but also have sufficient and evenly distributed monsoon rains. Therefore, India’s cotton output in 2020/21 is expected to reach 38 million bales, a year-on-year increase of 7 More than % (some Indian cotton processing companies and exporters even believe that the total cotton output in 2020/21 will be close to 40 million bales, a new high in the past decade).
However, the words have not yet fallen out, because the continuous rain has not only caused extensive damage to crops in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, but also has affected more than 2.1 million hectares of crops in other cotton areas (data from the Ministry of Agriculture of India); Maharasht Some cotton areas in the state have also been “captured” by heavy rains, and the output and quality will be greatly affected. Some of them have been “slapped in the face” by the Indian Ministry of Agriculture and the Meteorological Bureau, because most cotton areas in India have only gradually begun picking in October/November. , delivery, and processing period. Therefore, once the El Niño climate arrives early, the monsoon rains will become not only violent but also linger for a long time. Not only will the harvest of seed cotton be affected in several major cotton producing areas in India, but the quality and yield will also be full of uncertainty. sex. The cotton planting area increased by less than 2% year-on-year. Large-scale rainfall and floods continued in September and October, but India’s total output increased significantly by 7%-12%. The optimism and self-confidence of the Indian government departments and cotton-related enterprises cannot but be admired. .
Since India’s cotton production in 2020/21 is expected to be “very good”, exports have begun to be put on the agenda of ginners and exporters. However, judging from the survey, at present, both international cotton merchants and large domestic cotton There are very few quotations for new Indian cotton in 2020/21 for the January/March shipping date. Some cotton companies have even taken the initiative to avoid and withdraw from Indian cotton operations to reduce the risk of quota shortages, low cost performance, and the lack of interest in cotton-using companies.
First, due to negative factors such as the epidemic and the decline in global consumption, Indian cotton consumption demand has plummeted. CCI and Indian ginners have to push a large amount of 2019/20 cotton to the international market. All parties are digesting this. , Clearing old cotton, not paying much attention to new cotton;
Second, the Indian cotton quotations in 2020/21 start at a high price, and most traders and cotton textile companies stay away from it. First of all, MSP in 2020/21 has increased by 5% year-on-year, and CCI’s unlimited purchases have supported cotton prices to open higher; secondly, the current September/October shipping schedule M 1-5/32 Indian Chen cotton basis difference is 3-3.5 cents/pound , while the basis difference of Brazilian cotton M 1-5/32 is only 5-6 cents/pound, and Indian cotton is not cost-effective; thirdly, the Indian rupee has opened up the appreciation channel against the US dollar, and cotton and other exports have been blocked; thirdly, China, India, India and Pakistan, etc. Relations remain tense, with buyers making a full turn in purchases. The procurement focus of Chinese enterprises is Brazilian cotton, American cotton, Central Asian cotton, West African cotton, etc.; while Pakistani cotton mills have a special preference for Brazilian, Argentine, American cotton, Uzbek cotton, etc. Indian cotton is “grandma doesn’t hurt, uncle doesn’t.” like”. </p
