The average operating load of domestic ethylene glycol in August was approximately 57.5%, of which the operating load of coal-to-ethylene glycol was 35.4%, and the output of coal-to-ethylene glycol reached the lowest point during the year. After coal-to-ethylene glycol enters the stage of complete integration and large-scale competition of the entire upstream, midstream and downstream industrial chain, the fortresses built by technology and scale have weakened!
In fact, in April, coal-to-ethylene glycol fell below the profit and loss level due to factors such as the surge in production capacity, upstream price squeezes, and the impact of low-price petroleum-based ethylene glycol. Line, some manufacturers quoted a limit price of 2,800 yuan/ton in April, while the industry average cost was around 4,500 yuan/ton, and production losses were around 2,000 yuan per ton. Some companies were forced to stop. Domestic coal-to-ethylene glycol production started in April. The rate drops to 50%.
The industry has entered the era of competition across the entire industry chain
The price trends of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol and polyester are not isolated. The upstream, midstream and downstream of PET polyester are transmitted to each other and are closely related to the market conditions of crude oil, polyester and other markets. Any downstream product competition is competition for the entire industry chain. The price integration and scale of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester in the polyester industry chain can withstand business cycle fluctuations, smooth the volatility of profits, and bring about To achieve sustained, stable and growing profits.
Polyester production companies such as Xinfengming and Fujian Baihong have extended the industrial chain to upstream raw materials, forming an integrated PTA-polyester industrial chain, which can save the freight and aggregation of PTA Preheating energy and material consumption.
The five polyester giants Hengli, Rongsheng, Tongkun, Hengyi and Shenghong extend from polyester to the upstream to build crude oil-PX-PTA-PET polyester-textile Integrating the entire industrial chain, the industrial chain extends from a drop of oil to a piece of cloth. Tongkun, the largest domestic polyester manufacturer, will have a polyester production capacity of 6.4 million tons. Tongkun has a 20% stake in Zhejiang Petrochemical , based on the equity conversion, it has 1.04 million tons of PX and 280,000 tons of ethylene production capacity, which partially solves its PX and ethylene glycol raw materials. The production and operation goal of Tongkun is to extend and optimize the industrial chain and create a full industrial chain operation. On January 2 this year Tongkun’s polyester integration project with an annual output of 5 million tons of PTA and 2.4 million tons of polyester filament has started construction in Nantong. The advantages of scale in the polyester industry chain have been further amplified. Hengli has built a 20 million-ton oil refinery on Changxing Island in Dalian. The upstream production capacity of 4.5 million tons of PX and 1.67 million tons of ethylene glycol has formed the overall competitive advantage of the industrial chain and further improved the ability to resist cyclical fluctuation risks.
The complete integration of the polyester upstream and downstream industrial chains has become the greatest competitiveness in the overcapacity stage. Hengli, Rongsheng, etc. have benefited from the integration. In May last year, Hengli Petrochemical’s 20 million tons/year integrated refining and chemical project has been put into full operation. Last year, the company achieved revenue of over RMB 100 billion and net profit tripled. Rongsheng’s profit increased by nearly 40% last year. The first phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd., in which Tongkun is a shareholder, has been fully put into operation, and its integration supports profitability. The 2019 annual report released by Tongkun Co., Ltd. achieved an attributable net profit of 2.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36%.
The complete industrial chain layout of these polyester production enterprises has the competitiveness of the entire industrial chain and created core competitive advantages.
Coal-to-ethylene glycol has no opportunity to lay out the entire PET industry chain
China’s ethylene glycol More than 90% is used in the polyester field. Polyester production companies are going upstream to extend the industrial chain. Can coal-based ethylene glycol companies go downstream and extend to downstream PET polyester, or extend vertically?
PET polyester has experienced full competition, and industry concentration has further increased. The production capacity of the top six polyester filament companies has increased from 29.9% in 2010 to about 50% in 2019. In recent years, new domestic polyester filament production capacity has increased. Ester production capacity is mostly driven by the capacity expansion of leading companies. In 2019, the domestic polyester industry added a total of 3.59 million tons of production capacity, and the top ten companies in terms of production capacity added 2.4 million tons of new production capacity, accounting for nearly 70% of the new production capacity during the year. Regarding the 2 million tons incremental market for polyester in the next two years, industry insiders pointed out that the 2 million tons incremental market is not evenly distributed among all production companies, but is represented by Tongkun, Hengyi, Xinfengming and Shenghong. Mainly made of polyester faucets.
The entire industrial chain from crude oil, coal to fabrics
PTA, another important raw material for PET polyester There is also a surplus. At present, the domestic PTA production capacity will reach 100 million tons. The PTA industry has shown an oligopoly pattern. The top three leading companies, Yisheng Petrochemical, Hengli and Fuhua Fuhai, account for about 50% of the industry’s total production capacity. With the commissioning of Hengli’s fourth 2.5 million-ton PTA unit in June this year, Hengli’s total PTA production capacity has reached 9.1 million tons.
The integration and scale barriers built by polyester companies prevent coal-to-ethylene glycol production companies from extending downstream. Coal-to-ethylene glycol is originally a product under high oil prices. The product has the natural attribute of “integration of the upstream, midstream and downstream industrial chains”. However, after coal-to-ethylene glycol companies realized this natural attribute, they no longer had the opportunity to develop the upstream and downstream industrial chains. No one Enterprises have the ability to have a bird’s-eye view of the entire industry chain!
New polyester may have a chance to break through
It is no longer possible to deploy coal-based ethylene glycol to the downstream PET industry chain, PEN Are there any opportunities for new polyesters such as , PETG, PCTG and so on?
PEN is the abbreviation of polyethylene naphthalate, which is composed of 2,6-naphthalenedicarboxylic acid dimethyl ester (NDC) or 2,6-naphthalenedicarboxylic acid (NDA) and ethylene glycol. (EG) is a new type of excellent polyester formed by condensation polymerization.The chemical structure of PEN is similar to that of PET. The difference is that the benzene ring in PET is replaced by a more rigid naphthalene ring in the molecular chain of PEN. The naphthalene ring structure makes PEN have higher physical and mechanical properties, gas barrier properties, chemical stability, heat resistance, ultraviolet resistance, radiation resistance and other properties than PET. Due to its thermal stability and low moisture regain, PEN is more suitable for industrial yarns than PET. Well-known large companies in the world’s film production have entered the field of PEN film production. PEN film is widely used in electro-acoustic vibration diaphragms, flexible printed circuit boards, high-end packaging and impact-resistant packaging for precision instruments, as well as high-temperature-resistant motor insulation materials.
PEN, PETG, PCTG new polyester material structure
PETG and PCTG are terephthalic acid A copolyester formed by the condensation polymerization of (TPA), ethylene glycol (EG) and cyclohexanediol (CHDM). The addition of CHDM can prevent crystallization, while improving processing performance, toughness, transparency and chemical resistance. . Copolyesters with CHDM content greater than 50% are called PCTG, and copolyesters with CHDM content less than 50% are called PETG. PETG/PCTG does not contain BPA at all, and is comparable to PC in terms of transparency and strength, so it is used in food contact, cosmetic packaging, medical equipment and pharmaceutical packaging. In recent years, with the upgrade of safety and environmentally friendly products, PCTG and PETG are used in Baby and children’s products, such as children’s toys, strollers, food utensils, beverage packaging, etc.
The price of CHDM is relatively high, which makes the price of PETG based on CHDM copolymerization high, affecting its application. The market price of NPG (neopentyl glycol) is only equivalent to 30% of CHDM. Some companies have also begun to use NPG to replace CHDM monomer, copolymerize PETG, and apply it to heat shrink packaging films and other fields.
It is also significantly lower than the price at the beginning. The present invention provides a method of copolymerizing PET mainly using relatively cheap NPG (neopentyl glycol). The price of NPG is significantly lower than that of CHDM. Using a process route using NPG as the main modifier to prepare transparent copolyester sheets can reduce the cost of the sheets and obtain products with higher performance-price ratio.
PEN, PETG, and PCTG have not yet begun to lay out whether they are monomers or resins, and no industrial chain has been formed.
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