Introduction: Crude oil prices have gradually stopped falling and stabilized, and the recovery in terminal demand has provided support. PTA has limited downside space and has maintained a volatile trend. However, some maintenance equipment is being restored one after another, and with the launch of new production capacity, where will PTA go in the future?
From a cost perspective, the landing of hurricanes led to a decrease in crude oil production. And OPEC+ reiterated the importance of strictly abiding by the production reduction agreement and making up for the difference in production reductions as soon as possible, further supporting oil prices. International crude oil prices have shown a stabilizing and rising trend, and U.S. crude oil prices have once again risen to above $40. The price of PX fluctuated and rose, gradually recovering the previous decline. The cost side provided solid support to the PTA market, and the space below PTA was limited.
From the supply side, the increase in supply may become a negative factor for the PTA market. On the one hand, PTA units that were shut down for maintenance in the early stage are gradually being restored. Among them, Ningbo Yisheng’s 2.2 million-ton unit restarted on September 17, Luoyang Petrochemical’s 325,000-ton unit restarted on September 14, and Xinjiang Zhongtai’s 1.2 million-ton unit restarted on September 10. There was a temporary shutdown on the same day and normal operation resumed two days later. PTA’s weekly operating rate reached 81.92%, an increase of 2.07% from last week. The supply tightening situation is difficult to achieve. On the other hand, the pace of PTA production capacity expansion has not slowed down. The second phase of the Xinfengming plant is scheduled to be put into operation at the end of this month. The expectation for the increase in the supply side affects the PTA market mentality. In addition, there are more old goods delivered in the 09 contract, which suppresses the market to a certain extent. Price, it is naturally difficult for PTA to make a breakthrough.
From the demand side, the operating rate of the polyester industry has not fluctuated much, remaining at 89.49%. Under the traditional peak season of “Golden Nine and Silver Ten”, domestic and foreign sales orders in the terminal textile market have improved compared with the previous period, which has provided support to the PTA market.
However, in general, the rebound in terminal demand is not too large, the continuity of orders remains to be seen, and the high inventory in each link has led to a weak willingness to receive goods from downstream, PTA The weak supply and demand situation is difficult to completely change.
On the whole, due to the lack of substantial positive boost, expectations for terminal demand should not be overly optimistic. In addition, supply The end-of-term easing has suppressed the market. Although the PTA market shows signs of rebound, it is also accompanied by a correction in the middle, and the possibility of maintaining shock is high.
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