European and American stock markets suffered a violent sell-off on Monday. Investors are worried that after the epidemic in Europe worsens, many countries will reconsider the implementation of blockade policies, and the pace of economic recovery may be interrupted again. The three major U.S. stock indexes fell collectively, with losses narrowing in late trading driven by a rebound in technology stocks. As of the close of the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.8% to close at 27147.70 points; the S&P 500 Index fell 1.2% to 3281.06 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 0.1% to 10778.80 points.
International gold and silver prices fell sharply on Monday. As of the end of the day, the December COMEX gold futures contract closed at US$1,910.6 per ounce, a decrease of 2.62%; the December COMEX silver futures contract closed at US$24.387 per ounce, a decrease of 10.11%. Market analysts believe that the strength of the U.S. dollar was the main reason for the decline in gold prices that day.
International oil prices fell sharply on Monday as Libya is expected to gradually resume crude oil exports and the rebound in the epidemic in Europe and other places puts pressure on the oil demand outlook. As of the close of the day, the October NYMEX crude oil futures contract closed at US$39.31 per barrel, a decrease of 4.38%; the November Brent crude oil futures contract closed at US$41.44 per barrel, a decrease of 3.96%.
Yesterday, the black series fell across the board, iron ore fell for three consecutive days, down nearly 3%, and thread and hot coil prices remained weak. Iron ore futures have fallen continuously since reaching a high on September 3, and the maximum cumulative adjustment has exceeded 11%. During yesterday’s night trading session, the black series continued its downward trend. Market participants believe that this round of large-scale adjustments in steel futures prices is caused by weakening macro expectations, loosening market supply and demand, delays in peak season demand, and continued weak efforts to remove high inventory.
European and American stock markets closed down collectively, and precious metals fell sharply
Europe and the United States on Monday The stock market suffered a sharp sell-off. Investors are worried that after the epidemic in Europe worsens, many countries will reconsider the implementation of blockade policies, and the pace of economic recovery may be interrupted again.
The three major U.S. stock indexes fell collectively on Monday. Driven by the rebound of technology stocks in late trading, the decline narrowed. As of the close of the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.8% to close at 27147.70 points; the S&P 500 Index fell 1.2% to 3281.06 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 0.1% to 10778.80 points.
European stock markets closed down across the board on Monday. As of the close of the day, the British FTSE 100 index fell 3.3% to 5804 points; the French CAC 40 index fell 3.74% to 4792.0 points. Germany’s DAX index fell 4.37% to 12542.4 points.
The commodity market also showed a general decline.
International gold and silver prices fell sharply on Monday. As of the end of the day, the December COMEX gold futures contract closed at US$1,910.6 per ounce, a decrease of 2.62%; the December COMEX silver futures contract closed at US$24.387 per ounce, a decrease of 10.11%. Market analysts believe that the strength of the U.S. dollar was the main reason for the decline in gold prices that day.
As Libya is expected to gradually resume crude oil exports and the rebound of the epidemic in Europe and other places puts pressure on the oil demand outlook, international oil prices rose sharply on Monday fell. As of the close of the day, the October NYMEX crude oil futures contract closed at US$39.31 per barrel, a decrease of 4.38%; the November Brent crude oil futures contract closed at US$41.44 per barrel, a decrease of 3.96%.
Black series fell across the board
Monday , the black series fell across the board, iron ore fell for three days in a row, down nearly 3%, and thread and hot coil prices remained weak. In the past two weeks, steel market prices have dropped significantly. As of the afternoon closing on September 21, the thread 2101 contract fell by 279 yuan/ton, or 7.3%, since the beginning of September. During the same period, the hot-rolled coil 2101 contract fell by 316 yuan/ton, or 7.9%. . Iron ore futures have fallen continuously since reaching a high on September 3, and the maximum cumulative adjustment has exceeded 11%. During yesterday’s night trading session, the black series continued its downward trend.
Wang Zeyong, a metal analyst at Nanhua Futures, believes that this round of large-scale adjustments in steel futures prices is due to the weakening of macro expectations, the loosening of market supply and demand, and the delay in peak season demand. This is caused by the combination of the start-up and the continued weak efforts to remove high-level inventories. According to him, the current macroeconomic expectations have gradually turned from positive to cautious. On the one hand, inflation expectations have weakened and expectations of monetary easing have cooled; on the other hand, under the policy tone of “housing is for living, not for speculation”, coupled with the central bank and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development’s continuous tightening of financing policies for major real estate companies, housing prices in August The single-month growth rate of land acquisition and new construction started has slowed down significantly. Infrastructure construction has also been dragged down by funds. There were few special bond issuances from June to July. Superimposed on the impact of high temperatures and floods, the growth rate of infrastructure has also dropped significantly. Although special bonds were issued in August, Bond issuance has once again increased in volume, but the impact on infrastructure has lagged behind to a certain extent.
“The main reason for the continued rise in steel prices from July to August isThe main driving force for the strong upward trend in prices comes from the resonance of fundamentals and energy attributes. The U.S. soybean futures prices, Canadian rapeseed futures prices, and Malaysian palm oil futures prices are currently in a trend that is easy to rise but difficult to fall. Together, they build strong cost support for the three major oil futures prices.
Judging from the news, Xiang Bo, senior researcher of agricultural products at Zheshang Futures Research Center, said that the recent oil tank capacity expansion projects of China Grain Reserves in various places have triggered market expectations for the purchase and storage of edible oil. Under the policy guidance of “six guarantees” and “six stability”, more purchasing and storage situations may occur in the future. Factors such as the temporary closure of Yihai Group’s palm oil refinery in Sabah, Malaysia due to the new crown epidemic and the unsmooth progress of China-Canada negotiations are also affected. The short-term oil market.
“In the early days, rapeseed oil led the rise in oil and fat varieties. Although its performance was once weaker than soybean oil and palm oil in the recent stage, the strong fundamental characteristics have not changed.” Bi Hui In an interview with a reporter from Futures Daily, he said that Canadian rapeseed futures prices continue to rise, which will push up domestic rapeseed supply costs. Although the amount of imported rapeseed arriving in Hong Kong has increased, 543,000 tons of Canadian rapeseed will arrive in Hong Kong from September to November. , but the operating rate of domestic oil plants has increased significantly, making domestic rapeseed supply still tight. As the most tight supply and demand of the three major oil varieties, rapeseed oil futures prices have risen strongly due to rising import costs against the background of tight supply and demand.
In Xiang Bo’s view, in fact, the fundamentals of rapeseed oil have gradually improved since the past few years. The temporary storage of rapeseed oil out of the warehouse has combined with the decline in domestic planting area, domestic supply continues to decrease, and imports Dependence gradually increases. Recently, Canadian rapeseed imports have been restricted. Although rapeseed imports have increased, the reduction in rapeseed imports has been more obvious, and domestic supply has become tighter. In the future, rapeseed oil will maintain a strong momentum amid continued improvement in supply and demand.
The fundamentals of soybean oil are driven by the rise in raw material costs and the strong rise in U.S. soybean oil futures prices. According to Bi Hui, the recent driving force for the strong rise in U.S. soybean futures prices comes from the continued strong export demand for U.S. soybeans and the rising weather speculation. As the pace of U.S. soybean export sales to China has accelerated significantly, U.S. soybean futures prices have continued to receive support. At the same time, as the U.S. Weather Bureau, the Australian Weather Bureau, and the Japan Meteorological Agency have recently raised the probability of La Niña occurring in this autumn and winter, market concerns about the prospects for South American soybean production this year have continued to rise, further supporting the accumulated weather risk premium for U.S. soybean futures prices. . Short-term U.S. soybean futures prices are still prone to rise but difficult to fall, which continues to provide raw material cost support for soybean oil futures prices. At the same time, with the slowdown in U.S. soybean crushing, the steady growth of U.S. soybean oil consumption has led to market expectations that the pace of U.S. soybean oil inventory depletion is expected to further accelerate, which will continue to support the strong performance of U.S. soybean oil futures prices and also bring linkage support to domestic soybean oil futures prices. However, in the follow-up view, Xiang Bo believes that the US soybean is currently in a high valuation area, and there is not much room to continue to rise. However, there is no downward drive, or it may show a strong oscillation trend, and there may be a risk of a slight pullback in the future.
In terms of palm oil, Xiang Bo said that the current inventory in the production area is still low. Malaysia’s production growth is lower than expected in the context of the production increase season. India’s vegetable oil inventory is low, and the demand for replenishment is increasing exports. After entering the production reduction season in the future, it is expected that inventories in production areas will be difficult to return to the high levels of previous years, which is conducive to the rise of palm oil prices.
“The domestic palm oil futures price is mainly driven by the increase in external palm oil futures prices.” Bi Hui said that specifically, on the one hand, the increase in palm oil production is less than expected; on the other hand, the increase in palm oil production is less than expected; , data released by shipping survey agency ITS on Sunday showed that Malaysia’s palm oil exports from September 1 to 20 were 1.035 million tons, an increase of 9.4% from the export volume of 946,000 tons in the same period in August. Looking at the Indonesian market, another major palm oil producer, the Palm Oil Association said last Sunday that Indonesia exported 3.13 million tons of palm oil in July this year, higher than the 2.92 million tons in the same period last year and the 2.77 million tons in June this year. . The exports of the two major palm oil producing countries were better than market expectations, giving a positive boost to palm oil futures prices.
In addition, there are market rumors that Indonesia will raise export tariffs on crude palm oil. If the policy is consistent with market expectations, Malaysian palm oil exports are expected to occupy a favorable position by then and continue to provide Malaysia with Palm oil futures prices provide strong support. Since domestic palm oil inventories are at historically low levels, the inventory pressure experienced during price increases is significantly less than that of soybean oil. Therefore, palm oil futures prices are more susceptible to the linkage boost of the international market, and the increase is greater than that of soybean oil. In Bi Hui’s view, factors such as the rising rotation of the three major oils, the linkage of futures and spot prices, rising raw material costs and the impact of external market conditions will further consolidate the strong operating pattern of the oil market. </p
