Zheng Cotton showed signs of stabilizing after a major adjustment last week. Although the upward shock structure seems to be intact, under the background of mixed bull and short news in the market outlook, whether the overall operation of the domestic cotton spinning industry can support cotton prices Continue to rise?
A textile professional in Shandong said that business operations have been difficult since the epidemic this year and are still gradually recovering. From the cost of cotton and cotton yarn, based on the cotton price of 13,000 yuan/ton and the spinning cost of 7,200 yuan/ton, the cost price of 32-count yarn is about 20,200 yuan/ton, while the market price is 18,500-18,800 yuan/ton. Many textile companies are selling at a loss. Affected by many internal and external uncertainties, there were only some orders in May 2020. After July-August, market orders decreased, sales progress slowed down, and it was difficult for the upstream to go downstream.
The person in charge of a raw material company believes that currently we are in a new development pattern in which domestic and international dual cycles promote each other. Downstream yarn and cloth are on the verge of profit or loss or in a state of loss. The oversupply pattern of the cotton market is difficult to change in the short term. Judging from the comparative relationship between cotton and chemical fiber substitution, the production capacity of chemical fiber and viscose is much greater than that of cotton. Some companies have switched from spinning pure cotton yarn to blended yarn. The price relationship between cotton and chemical fiber needs to be repaired. Therefore, in the short term, cotton prices remain oscillating. Weak situation.
Upstream cotton professionals believe that the dominant factor in this round of cotton market is the epidemic. From an industrial perspective, the epidemic has led to a reduction in consumption. Although the number of cases is reaching a new high, there is also good news about vaccine trials. The impact of the epidemic on the economy is weakening, and the textile operating rate has returned to 70-75%. Downstream consumption is gradually recovering, and overall inventory and production and sales rates are improving. As a result, cotton prices have risen from 10,000 yuan/ton to 13,000 yuan/ton. However, there are also many contradictions in the market: first, the contradiction between undervalued cotton prices and the industry, that is, the rising cotton price and the weak trend of cotton yarn prices deviate from each other; second, the contradiction between futures and spot, futures rise, but the spot does not follow the rise; third, the internal and external price difference Contradiction; fourth, the profit conflict between cotton and cotton yarn.
Since the outbreak of the epidemic, cotton prices have been on an upward trend, and the lows have been rising. Of course, there are still many contradictions and uncertainties between the market and the cotton spinning industry. Industry insiders believe that cotton prices will remain volatile in the short term. , the need for valuable restoration in the medium to long term. </p
