According to the Associated Press, the WTO ruled that the Trump administration’s tariffs on more than $200 billion worth of Chinese goods were illegal. Yesterday evening, the Ministry of Commerce responded to this, saying that China appreciates the objective and fair ruling made by the WTO expert group.
On the same day, the Tariff Commission of the State Council announced the first exclusion and extension list of goods subject to tariffs on the United States and Canada. For the 16 items in the “Announcement on the Exclusion List” (Tax Commission Announcement [2019] No. 6), the exclusion period has been extended by one year. From September 17, 2020 to September 16, 2021, it will be a violation to continue not to add taxes. The tariffs imposed by the 301 measures against the United States.
In its latest monthly report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its crude oil demand outlook for 2020 to 91.7 million barrels per day, and also stated that in the remaining months of this year there will be Facing more demand resistance. The IEA pointed out in the report that considering that all the demand that is easiest to recover is already in place, the recovery of oil demand is expected to slow down significantly in the second half of 2020, and crude oil demand in 2020 is expected to fall by 8.4 million barrels per day compared with the same period last year. The IEA also said that it may take several months for the economic slowdown to be completely reversed, and a potential second round of the epidemic (which has already occurred in Europe) may lead to another reduction in personnel mobility.
From September 15th to 16th, the Federal Reserve held an FOMC interest rate meeting and released a summary of its economic forecasts. This is the last interest rate meeting before the U.S. election in November. The content includes adjustments to the interest rate policy statement, forward guidance on how to use the plan, and outlook on the economic and interest rate outlook. Analysts expect Fed officials to reiterate their dovish stance. Considering that the non-farm payrolls, inflation and other data released by the United States have not worsened so far, it is expected that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting to be held this week may reiterate its ultra-loose stance, but it is difficult to make new policy changes.
The WTO ruled that the US Section 301 tariff measures against China violated WTO obligations
The Associated Press reported on September 15 that the World Trade Organization ruled that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on more than $200 billion worth of Chinese goods were illegal.
On the evening of the same day, the Ministry of Commerce issued an expert group report on the “WTO expert group on the WTO dispute case concerning China’s lawsuit against the U.S. Section 301 tariff measures, and determined that the U.S. was involved in the case of taxation Measures that violate WTO obligations.”
The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce said that China appreciates the objective and fair ruling made by the expert group.
The spokesperson said that China’s resorting to the U.S.’s erroneous practices of unilateralism and trade protectionism to the WTO dispute settlement mechanism is the need to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests and also demonstrates the This reflects China’s firm determination to respect WTO rules and maintain the authority of the multilateral trading system. The multilateral trading system with the WTO as its core is the cornerstone of international trade. China has always firmly supported and maintained this cornerstone and respects WTO rules and rulings. China also hopes that the United States will fully respect the ruling of the expert group and the rules-based multilateral trading system, take practical actions, meet China and other WTO members halfway, jointly safeguard the multilateral trading system, and promote the stable and healthy development of the world economy.
Soda ash and glass futures both plummeted
September 15 , domestic commodity futures fell less and rose more, but soda ash and glass futures both fell. Glass futures fell more than 3%, and soda ash hit the limit twice during the session. As of the close, the main soda ash contract fell by 4.80% to 1,667 yuan; the main glass contract fell by 3.52% to 1,646 yuan. Analysts believe that the main reason for the sharp decline of glass and soda ash is the change in their fundamentals.
Wang Yaqian, a glass analyst at Huarong Rongda Futures, told reporters that from the spot point of view, the domestic float glass spot market is mainly adjusted for trial operation, and the quotations of some brands in North China have been reduced. The inventories of production companies in some regions increased slightly from the previous month, mainly because traders and processing companies accelerated the consumption of their own inventories, and real estate companies in some regions had limited acceptance of glass spot prices. In terms of downstream demand, from January to August, the sales area of commercial housing was 984.86 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%, and the decline was 2.5 percentage points narrower than that from January to July.
It is worth noting that Huatai Futures, which ranks first in the list of glass futures short positions, increased its holdings by 3,665 long orders and reduced its holdings by 11,575 short orders that day, resulting in a net short position Reduced to 20,935; Yongan Futures increased its holdings of 4,698 long orders while reducing its holdings of 2,964 short orders, with net short orders reduced to 9,384. These seats are more optimistic about the market outlook. On the contrary, the Galaxy Futures seat reduced its holdings of 1,381 long orders and increased its holdings of 760 short orders that day, with the net short orders increasing to 27,343, indicating that this seat is relatively pessimistic about the market outlook. Among the top 20 seats in the long and short rankings on that day, 7 seats made long and short adjustments in the same direction on their positions. Among them, Guotai Junan’s seats reduced its long positions by 285 while reducing its short positions by 2869, and the net long orders increased to 9066; Huishang Futures’ seats reduced its long positions by 490 while reducing its short positions by 1700, with a net short position. Reduced to 4317 photos. The above data shows that these seats are more optimistic about the market outlook.
“In fact, after the glass market entered September, the first round of peak season has basically ended. Traders who had previously stocked up…At present, the fundamentals of the methanol market have improved significantly. However, considering the high operating rate of domestic methanol units, once the maintenance of external units is completed and the supply pressure recovers, it will not be conducive to the continued rise of methanol futures prices. Therefore, investors should maintain a cautiously optimistic attitude before the National Day and beware of the risk of price weakening caused by increased supply-side pressure after the holiday.
Cao Bo, a methanol analyst at Huarong Rongda Futures, also said that import supply has shrunk this week and inventories continue to decline, and supply pressure has been effectively released. Affected by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, downstream companies will focus on replenishing inventory in the next two weeks, which will provide certain support for prices. As for the trend in the fourth quarter, he believes that the peak winter demand season is coming, and downstream demand for MTO, acetic acid, DMF and other products is expected to recover, but market transmission will still take some time. Methanol is expected to bottom out in the fourth quarter and remains bullish in the long term. </p
