Affected by the hurricane, international oil prices rose significantly on Tuesday. The main NYMEX crude oil futures contract hit an intraday high of $43.57 per barrel, setting a new high in the past six months.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Tuesday that Hurricane Laura was heading west-northwest in the central Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane before making landfall Wednesday night or Thursday morning local time.
As offshore crude oil production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and refineries along the Gulf Coast were hit by the hurricane, the scale of production shutdowns in the U.S. oil industry has reached levels close to those during Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
Recently, the trend of iron ore futures prices has been weak, with the main contracts falling continuously since last Wednesday. During the day trading session yesterday, iron ore closed down nearly 3%, leading the decline in domestic futures prices. city. Market participants believe that under the background that the estimated profit of rebar has turned negative and continues to expand, the pressure for profit redistribution in the black industry chain is increasing.
Yesterday, soybean meal and rapeseed meal performed strongly. Market participants said that the recovery and expansion of the downstream breeding industry are the main factors supporting the upward price of protein meal.
The hurricane is approaching, and international oil prices are about to “take off”
Suffer Affected by the hurricane, international oil prices rose significantly on Tuesday. The October NYMEX crude oil futures contract hit an intraday high of $43.57/barrel, a new high in the past six months, and closed at $43.35/barrel, an increase of 1.71%; the October Brent crude oil futures contract closed at $45.86/barrel, an increase of 1.62% %.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Tuesday that Hurricane Laura is moving west-northwestward in the central Gulf of Mexico and is expected to hit Wednesday night or Sunday local time. It will strengthen into a major hurricane before making landfall on Thursday morning.
As offshore crude oil production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and refineries along the Gulf Coast were hit by the hurricane, the scale of production shutdowns in the U.S. oil industry has reached levels close to those during Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
During yesterday’s daytime trading session, many varieties of the energy sector rose. As of the close, the main 2101 soda ash contract rose more than 3% to 1,684 yuan/ton.
Regarding the rise in soda ash futures prices, Huaan Futures said that the recent floods in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River caused a 900,000-ton/year joint soda production line of a soda ash manufacturer in southwest China to shut down. This is the reason for this round of rise. The most important catalyst.
“This Monday, the prices of some domestic alkali plants increased. Most companies closed orders and did not quote prices due to low inventory. The overall price increase trend is strong, due to glass All production lines ignited in the early stage will be put into production, and the fundamentals of soda ash supply and demand are improving.” Huaan Futures said that in the current atmosphere, companies have sufficient confidence in the market outlook, but they also need to track the actual willingness of downstream orders to take orders.
Researchers from the Black Building Materials Group of Founder Mid-term Futures believe that soda ash spot prices continue to show a positive trend, manufacturers’ shipments are acceptable, and the overall operating load of domestic soda ash manufacturers has been reduced. In the short term, the float glass industry maintains high profits and production capacity is expected to increase, while soda ash supply has yet to show signs of resuming production. The 2101 contract is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term after breaking through the previous high.
Iron ore is among the top decliners
Recently, iron ore has The trend of futures prices is weak, with the main contracts falling continuously since last Wednesday. During yesterday’s day trading session, iron ore closed down nearly 3%, leading the decline in the domestic futures market.
Tao Rui, director of the black industry team of China Merchants Futures, believes that this week the black sector’s characteristics of “falling and expanding profits” have become increasingly obvious. From the perspective of iron ore fundamentals, there is no substance. Negative factors have emerged, port inventories are still structurally tight, the port pressure problem still needs to be solved, and the basis is still tempting.
“Iron ore fell sharply yesterday. We believe that this is mainly due to the fact that the estimated profit of rebar has turned negative and continues to expand, and the increasing industrial chain profits have continued to expand. Distributing pressure.” Tao Rui said that combined with the continued weak apparent demand for rebar in the past two weeks, the market’s confidence in the strong demand for rebar has weakened recently. With the news of blast furnace production restrictions, the confidence of raw material bulls collapsed, and the market This also led to a sharp reduction in positions and declines. Iron ore, which had the largest increase in the previous period and the largest profit accumulation, had the deepest correction, while coke’s relative decline was limited.
In addition, in response to the news that project funds are currently circulating in the market, Tao Rui believes that one possible reason is that the pattern of special bond funds has changed. Big change. “According to our statistics, of the special bonds issued in August, about 30% were invested in housing reform and about 20% in industrial park construction. At the same time, the proportion of ecological environment management-related projects increased to about 8%, and transportation-related projects dropped to about 8%. This is very different from the distribution of industrial park construction and transportation in the first half of the year, which accounted for nearly 70%. Therefore, industrial park projects and transportation projects with sufficient funds in the first half of the year will indeed face the possibility of weaker funds compared with the previous month. However, This is only a structural change in the flow of special bonds, and the total amount has not changed significantly compared with the first half of the year.” Tao Rui said.
CombinedBased on the current market supply and demand fundamentals, he suggested that in the short term, we can focus on profit expansion of finished products such as multi-thread, empty coke and iron ore. In the long term, it is still recommended to focus on hedging the strength between varieties.
The oils and fats sector had mixed gains and losses
The agricultural products sector rose. There were mixed prices. As of yesterday’s daytime close, rapeseed meal and rapeseed rose by more than 2%, soybean 2 rose by more than 1%, and soybean 1, rapeseed oil, and strong wheat fell by more than 1%.
“Yesterday, oil varieties were still in the process of oscillation adjustment, protein meal performed relatively strongly, and the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal both increased to a certain extent.” Founder mid-term futures agricultural products Researcher Zhu Yao said that the strong performance of protein meal is mainly due to the market’s expectations for the rapid recovery of domestic pig breeding demand. Statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs show that the national pig population has increased for six consecutive months in July, and the number of reproductive sows has continued to grow. 10-month growth, the recovery and expansion of the downstream breeding industry are the main factors supporting the upward trend in protein meal prices.
However, Zhu Yao believes that for the oil and fat sector, the far-month expectations are better than the recent reality, and the rise in protein meal prices is based on There are expectations for a substantial increase in demand for breeding feed next year, but the current domestic stocks of imported soybeans and soybean meal are still at high levels. Although the amount of soybeans imported by Brazil will gradually decrease after September, China may still liberalize the import of U.S. soybeans after October. Last year, the U.S. soybean harvest was bumper, but global supply and demand are still relatively loose. Whether protein meal prices can rise significantly in the future still depends on the development of Sino-U.S. trade relations.
“In terms of oils and fats, the supply is still sufficient in the short term, and palm oil is still the main driver of the trend of the three major vegetable oils. However, when crude oil prices have not improved for a long time, the market has no confidence in biodiesel. It is difficult to give more premiums to consumption expectations.” In Zhu Yao’s view, soybean oil is closer to the logic of soybean meal, and the amount of soybean imports from the United States determines the price of soybean oil at the end of the year.
Zhu Yao believes that in the short and medium term, the oil and fat sector will be more dominated by oscillation adjustments. In the long term, protein meal and oil will remain on the rise.
“Since Brazil has very few soybeans left for export after September, the pace of China’s import of U.S. soybeans will have a profound impact. It is expected that by mid-to-early September, oil and oil prices will The rhythm of oscillatory adjustment will still be maintained. If the amount of domestically purchased U.S. soybeans is still limited, the price of oils and fats will rise significantly.” Zhu Yao also said that the results of this year’s U.S. election may affect future Sino-U.S. trade. The further development of the relationship is also crucial to the price trend of domestic oils and fats.
“Since the long-term upward trend of oil and fat prices remains unchanged, you can consider the strategy of buying at low prices and gradually building positions. At the same time, you must pay close attention to changes in Sino-US trade relations.” Zhu Yao said. </p
