At a press conference held by the Ministry of Commerce on August 19, a reporter asked: “Relevant reports indicate that the United States and China plan to reschedule the trade talks postponed last weekend. The talks are aimed at signing the six-month first phase trade agreement. We will assess the progress in March. Although the date of this meeting has not yet been determined, it will be held soon.” Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said that the two sides have agreed to hold a phone call in the near future. Undoubtedly, the news that China and the United States have begun to contact has once again boosted the market, and related commodity prices have rebounded.
China-U.S. relations will dominate cotton price trends in the future
After China and the United States canceled economic and trade talks last weekend, domestic and foreign cotton prices quickly responded with a decline , although the downside space is limited, it at least shows that the market is extremely sensitive to this news. What is the main contradiction affecting cotton prices now is of great concern to everyone.
After the rift in Sino-US economic and trade relations, the trade volume between the two countries continued to decline. The latest data shows that in the first five months of 2020, ASEAN was China’s largest trading partner. The total trade value between China and ASEAN was 1.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.2%, accounting for 14.7% of China’s total foreign trade value. The EU is China’s second largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 1.61 trillion yuan, a decrease of 4.4%, accounting for 13.9% of China’s total foreign trade value. The United States is China’s third largest trading partner. The total trade value between China and the United States was 1.29 trillion yuan, a decrease of 9.8%, accounting for 11.1% of China’s total foreign trade value. Problems in Sino-US economic and trade relations will have a direct impact on the decline in trade volume and cotton prices (including other bulk commodities).
The impact of the epidemic on the cotton market is gradually declining
Recently, some cotton experts believe that Sino-US relations will become the main conflict affecting cotton price trends in the future. . After such a long period of digestion and reaction to the epidemic, the market’s influence is inevitably declining. As the economy gradually recovers and vaccines make progress in the later period, the intensity will only become weaker and weaker, so the focus will gradually shift. .
Of course, there will be hiccups in the market from time to time, and the development of the epidemic in Xinjiang affects the nerves of the entire cotton market. Under the influence of the recent Xinjiang epidemic, Zheng cotton has shown the characteristics of being easy to rise but difficult to fall. Especially in the early stages of the outbreak, Xinjiang cotton shipments encountered resistance, and short-term Xinjiang cotton supply problems gave the market an opportunity to speculate. It is widely predicted by the outside world that this is a critical period for cotton production in Xinjiang. If the epidemic continues, it will inevitably have a negative impact on cotton field management, picking, sales, and processing. However, the good news now is that the number of confirmed cases in Xinjiang has been cleared for many days in a row, and the unblocking time is getting closer, so cotton shipments and production will not be greatly affected. After all, China has sufficient prevention and control experience and measures, and coupled with the rapid advancement of vaccine research and clinical trials, there are not many days left for the epidemic to make waves. </p
