The global epidemic outbreak and the Russian-Tsarist crude oil war have had an impact on the market. Whenever there is a disturbance, it does not matter whether it is true or false, it will subvert your imagination. Investors analyze it from all angles: after taking into account fundamentals, technical aspects, and funds, it shows a short-selling pattern. The main force completely controls the situation on the market. It shows signs of panic in April. However, everything seems so powerless under Twitter. Many veterans People joked that the current market situation is really “a fierce analysis, and the rise and fall depend entirely on Trump”
Last night’s international crude oil prices perfectly verified the sentence in the title. Not only did crude oil surge, but bulk textile raw materials also surged on the 3rd. Mr. Tsai’s remarks boosted the global market.
As of the close on the 3rd, the main contract of WTI crude oil rose 24.67% to US$25.32/barrel, the largest single day in history In a record increase, the main Brent crude oil contract rose 17.8% to US$29.14 per barrel. Similarly, the surge in crude oil has brought about a surge in polyester raw materials and even polyester filament. The ethylene glycol futures contract hit the daily limit at the end of the 2nd, and PTA also received a significant boost. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased to an average around 16:45 p.m. It is estimated to be around 300%, and some polyester factories even reach an astonishing 1,000%.
Then the future market will also be like this: one analysis is as fierce as a tiger, and the rise and fall depend entirely on Trump?
They all came to make trouble! Trump’s “unabashed talk” needs to be verified
If it is as expected by Trump, then we deserve to celebrate the increase in international crude oil last night. In fact, as soon as Trump finished speaking, Saudi Arabia and other U.S. officials came to undermine him one after another, without taking the commander-in-chief’s face seriously at all.
Yang An, head of energy and chemical R&D at Haitong Futures, said that judging from the performance of the United States and Saudi Arabia, OPEC+ has become a global player. The transition trend of the production reduction alliance is obvious.
The United States is already impatient on the issue of production cuts, and shale oil producers are about to enter a period of large-scale bankruptcy. Once low oil prices continue, the wave of bankruptcies among oil companies will be huge. It will affect the financial order of the United States, and the operation of maintaining financial stability in the United States will be more difficult.
“Saudi Arabia expressed the hope that the G20 countries represented by the United States and Canada will also join in the production reduction. If the United States can eventually join, there is a high probability that other countries will also participate.” /o:p>
Yang An pointed out that now the market has truly reached the time for the United States to coordinate production cuts. If Trump wants to achieve an increase in oil prices, he must first persuade domestic producers to actively cooperate, and secondly, he must conduct a full exchange of interests with Russia. There is still considerable resistance to the actual implementation of the production reduction alliance.
Therefore, although oil prices have gotten rid of the oscillating downward pattern, remember to chase higher in short-term operations. The market still needs time to verify the authenticity of what Trump said!
The global epidemic outbreak is the biggest problem for the market!
What cannot be ignored is that the current economic crisis caused by the global epidemic is still the biggest problem hindering the market. Countless factories around the world have suspended production due to the ongoing epidemic. Recently, the United States announced that epidemic prevention measures will be extended until April 30, and Spain suspended all non-essential production work.
At the same time, chemical giant BASF has reported 4 new confirmed cases among employees, and US factories will reduce production by 47% of contracted work. Countless factories around the world have halted production and announced that all orders will be suspended or cancelled. The global economy is stalling due to the epidemic.
In the context of globalization, one move affects the whole body. The continued fermentation of the epidemic in the country where the customer is located has triggered a chain reaction in the domestic and foreign trade industry.
From the perspective of export sales data, from January to February due to the inability to deliver goods normally due to the domestic epidemic, coupled with the cancellation of some orders, exports dropped significantly by 20%. From March to April, overseas sales As the epidemic spreads, consumption declines, and foreign businessmen are unable to receive goods normally, export growth is expected to continue to decline (currently, the proportion of foreign orders canceled or delayed in March and April ranges from 30-50%).
Affected by the large-scale cancellation or postponement of export orders and the shrinkage of domestic orders, weaving gray fabrics cannot be shipped, and gray fabric inventories are rising again (warp knitting inventories are more than 20 days old, Water jet weaving inventory is more than 40 days old), a few weaving companies began to sell goods at low prices, and the overall mentality of the downstream market was panicked.
At the same time, the start-up of texturing and weaving is facing a second correction. The period of decline in start-up is at the end of March and early April. The periodic correction in start-up may exceed 20%. The upcoming Qingming Festival There may be even more drops during the holidays.
If crude oil prices return to low levels, even with vigorous price reduction promotions, terminal panic will still be difficult to dissipate, and there will be few bargain hunting and stockpiling, and pulse production and sales will return.
Major polyester filament manufacturers with high inventories in recent days are once again facing pressure to reduce production. Recently, we have heard that some major filament yarn manufacturers are cutting production. So for polyester companies, what they are currently facing can be said to be a situation similar to a prisoner’s dilemma.
Even if individual companies take the initiative to reduce production and stop production, the overall domestic oversupply trend is still difficult to shake, inventory continues to accumulate, and price pressure continues.
The market has entered a sideways phase, and future speculation should be a repeated opportunity
With the opening of this week, the difficult month of March has passed. Now, looking at it now, will the start of April be in hard mode or easy mode? The early decline in the polyester industry can be seen as the energy and chemical sector’s follow-up to the cost collapse caused by the plunge in crude oil. At the same time, there is the negative impact of the increasing spread of overseas public health events.
The editor believes that the procurement node and cycle of the polyester industry must start from two aspects, one is the recovery of the demand side, and the other is the stop of the cost side. The market has been adjusting for a long time now. If it falls again in the future, I think it will be an opportunity. Of course, it should be a local opportunity. I just say that there is no need to panic blindly.
Nothing can be more eye-catching than guaranteed profit. It is still a great era of speculation. The market has entered a sideways stage. Speculation in the future should be a repeated opportunity!
For the polyester industry chain, the analysis here is as fierce as a tiger, and the rise and fall all depend on special… As for the situation in the past two days, I don’t know what you have. If you want to complain, why don’t you all share your thoughts? </p
