There is still more than one month left before the new year comes to an end, and 2016 will be quite extraordinary for cotton. The quote went from more than 9,000 yuan all the way to 16,000, almost doubling. Because cotton cultivation is not easy, and the planting area is decreasing year by year, in order to protect this strategic material, the country has been implementing a system of subsidies and market regulation. For cotton farmers who did not make much money in the past two years, how much money can cotton farmers make in this hot market this year? And what kind of difficulties are the ginning and spinning mills facing under this wave of market conditions?
A few days ago, a CCTV interview video said: In fact, it is not just a certain link that is difficult to do now, but the entire chain is not easy to do. Because our technical issues are still being improved and optimized, “Xiaomi plus rifles” versus “airplanes plus cannons” is a painful process that we must go through, but this year’s “pain point” is more obvious.
On the 18th, a person in charge of a mainland contracting company in Aksu said that starting from the beginning of November, the purchase price of seed cotton was 7.3-7.4 yuan/kg, and the cost of lint was as high as 16,000-16,100 yuan/ton. Current sales are still cost-inverted. The following cotton prices are If it continues to fall, the losses to the company will be immeasurable.
At present, the sales price of high-quality C40S cotton yarn in Hebei, Shandong, Henan and other places is 24,500-24,800 yuan/ton. Spinners are not “upside down”. From the perspective of spinning costs and market trends, the cotton price of 16,000 yuan/ton has become a “watershed”.
Recently, the cotton yarn quotations of mainland textile companies have increased with the cost of raw materials rising from 14,500-15,000 yuan/ton to 15,800-16,500 yuan/ton, while the cotton yarn quotations have been raised to 300-500 yuan/ton. Some large factories have reported an increase of 600 for combed yarn and compact spinning yarn. -800 yuan/ton, the risk of rising raw material prices is accelerating to be passed to downstream.
Textile factories and cotton companies in Henan, Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu and other places have successively sent purchasing personnel to various stations in northern Xinjiang to view goods and inquire about prices. Some buyers have also visited cotton processing enterprises to inspect and discuss cooperation. However, the main factors restricting the transaction are: Two:
First, the psychological expectation difference in cotton prices is 300-400 yuan/ton.
Since the cost of machine-picked cotton in this year’s “Double 29 and Double 30” has reached 15,500-15,800 yuan/ton (if 2-3 months of financial expenses are considered, there are not many costs lower than 15,800 yuan/ton). Therefore, cotton companies’ quotations for high-quality lint cotton are above 15,800 yuan/ton, while the upper limit that textile companies can accept and digest is within 15,500 yuan/ton.
Second, neither the buyer nor the buyer is responsible for transporting cotton out of Xinjiang.
On the one hand, applications for railway freight trains in December have been sold out, road transport vehicles are difficult to find, and the shipping time cannot be determined. On the other hand, transportation costs fluctuate greatly, and cotton spinning mills and ginning mills do not want to occupy funds (the 500 yuan/ton export subsidy to Xinjiang can only be paid after at least one year). It is also reported that the price of cottonseed in Xinjiang has continued to rise in the past two days. On the 18th, the ex-factory price of cottonseed in Shawan, Wusu and other places was 2.62-2.63 yuan/kg.
As the source of textiles, cotton’s technical issues have received intense response from the market level. Factors such as higher costs than abroad and unsatisfactory quality of machine-picked cotton have become one of the key issues that limit the benefits of cotton farmers and restrict the profits of textile companies. These problems existed in the past. This year, coupled with the decline in the international economic situation and the decline in global consumption power, these outstanding problems are particularly serious.
It is understood from all aspects that the current spinning and weaving enterprises are still facing the dilemma of insufficient downstream demand, insufficient openings, light production and sales, high pressure to destock, and further severe operating conditions. In particular, the current high cotton price poses a huge challenge to controlling production costs. Subsequent product price increases are subject to various restrictions. Generally speaking, cotton procurement is not active at present. Wait-and-see inquiries are the main focus, and textile companies are also cautious in accepting orders. From the perspective of the futures market, the recent price fluctuations of Zheng Cotton’s 1701 contract have intensified. New York cotton futures have performed optimistically in the past two days. Individual companies have reported that with the increase in the next round of spinning raw material replenishment, cotton prices are less likely to fall. There are also Some believe that downstream demand has not started and there is no strong support for rising raw material prices. Therefore, as the end of the year approaches, textile companies need to be more cautious in their operations, focusing on market development and increasing the added value of products while striving to control production costs.
Generally speaking, the market for “demon cotton” came too fast and suddenly, and “no reaction” is the voice of most textile people. For example, the textile factory in the video was able to stock up a batch of goods at 12,000. I believe that life will be better. There are many, but after all, there are only a few spinning companies with “surplus grain” in their hands. If the price of yarn in one month is calculated according to the current price, and profits must be guaranteed, it is not difficult to see the performance of the spinning mills based on the current cotton price. Difficulty.
If China’s cotton industry chain only guarantees the income of cotton farmers, it is obviously not healthy enough. How to make the entire cotton industry chain a virtuous cycle and improve the competitiveness in the international market is an issue worthy of consideration by every textile person. Downstream textile companies need to pay attention to technology and quality, but the source should provide a strong guarantee. It is conceivable that overcoming the technical problems of cottonThe problem is the top priority of my country’s cotton textile industry.
