Concerned about the impact of the epidemic on the economy and demand, crude oil closed down
Since the beginning of the week, crude oil inventories have continued to decline more than expected, which has tightened supply. International crude oil prices have risen across the board. Driven by strong costs, ethylene glycol market prices have steadily risen. Until January 13, the demand for gasoline in the United States fell, coupled with the release of crude oil reserves in the United States, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States increased, and the global epidemic was still spreading, international crude oil closed down. The reduction in raw material prices has weakened the positive support from the cost side of the ethylene glycol market.
Domestic installation starts declined instead of increasing, supply is good
Since the beginning of January, many domestic early-stage ethylene glycol parking devices or newly invested devices have started trial operation, including a 200,000-ton/year ethylene glycol device in Henan that restarted in mid-January. It was previously restarted on October 20, 2021. Started to shut down; a new 800,000 tons/year ethylene glycol plant in East China started trial operation this week; a new 200,000 tons/year ethylene glycol plant in Guangxi started trial operation and output on January 12 There are a small amount of industrial-grade products, but none of the above companies have produced polyester-grade products so far, which has not yet had a direct impact on domestic market supply.
At the same time, an 800,000 tons/year ethylene glycol unit in East China began to shut down in early January due to raw material problems. It was originally planned to shut down for about a week, but was later postponed to restart at the end of January; a 200,000 tons/year ethylene glycol unit in Henan The alcohol unit was shut down due to installation problems around the 10th, and the shutdown is expected to last for about a week; a 400,000 tons/year ethylene glycol unit in Inner Mongolia was also temporarily shut down due to installation problems on January 11, and is scheduled to restart on January 14. East China A 750,000-ton/year ethylene glycol plant in the region was briefly shut down on January 13 and is currently being restarted. The sudden shutdown of several domestic units has temporarily alleviated the recent supply pressure on the ethylene glycol market, which has boosted price increases in the ethylene glycol market.
The demand side maintains a weak and stable pattern
The Spring Festival is approaching, the terminal market has gradually entered holiday mode, and demand has continued to decrease. However, the operating load of the polyester industry has always been maintained at a high level. The high inventory pressure of polyester factories remains, companies are tired, production and sales are deserted, and the operating load of the weaving industry has been reduced. The current polyester operating rate is 85.78%, and the terminal weaving operating load is 50.99%.
Overall, international crude oil prices closed down, cost support weakened, and port inventories accumulated slightly. However, the start-up of domestic devices declined, and supply shrank significantly, which was significantly positive. The demand side continued to be sluggish, and the ethylene glycol market was strong on the supply side. Boosted by the price increase, the market price in East China is 5,275 yuan/ton.
Although the current international crude oil price has been reduced, it is still at a high level, and the cost is expected to still be supported in the short term. In terms of supply, as time goes by, the Beijing Winter Olympics is getting closer, and ethylene glycol plants in some areas may be affected by this and plan to stop or reduce the load. There are further expectations for better domestic supply, but the current port shipments are small. , before the Spring Festival, ports will mainly have accumulated warehouses, and the overall supply side is not good enough. The demand side may continue to be weak before the Spring Festival. In the short term, the domestic ethylene glycol market price may remain high and fluctuate, with the East China market price range being 5,000-5,000. 5,300 yuan/ton.
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