This cycle, the domestic PTA spot market has weakened and adjusted. As of the close of trading, the weekly average price of PTA spot market in East China was 4862.2 yuan/ton, with the weekly average price falling 1.48% month-on-month.
The epidemic in Asia has partially eased. The OPEC meeting decided to maintain its previous plan to increase production slightly month by month. International oil prices fluctuated slightly. Cost support is acceptable. The supply and demand side of PTA continues to be weak. There was little change in PTA equipment during the week, supply increased slightly, basis continued to weaken, and the downstream polyester market saw price reductions and promotions. However, terminal textile orders have not yet been placed, resulting in polyester inventories remaining high. The overall market mentality is slightly weak, and the market is bullish. Watch with caution. Taken together, weak macro expectations coupled with weak terminal orders, the peak textile season in September, and weakening supply and demand caused PTA prices to continue to weaken during the week.
Market price changes this week
International crude oil prices may fall Space
It is expected that international oil prices may have room for a slight decline next week, and demand factors such as the epidemic and seasonal consumption decline will receive more attention. It is expected that WTI may operate in the range of 67-70 US dollars/barrel, and Brent may operate in the range of 70-73 US dollars/barrel.
PTA processing fee fell
The average PTA processing fee this week was 472.15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95.74 yuan/ton from last week. tons, or a decrease of 16.86%;
PTA start-up load fluctuates and rises
The average weekly operating rate of domestic PTA this week was 79.59%, an increase of 3.32% from last week;
Downstream polyester production and sales Overall, the average weekly production and sales in this cycle is 107.10%.
Change expectations
PTA supply change expectations
Judging from the forecast, the PTA market supply is expected to increase next week. The main Sanfangxiang Line 1 is expected to restart, and Sichuan Shengda’s 1 million tons is facing an increase in load. No obvious fluctuations were seen in other devices. Therefore, it is expected that next week (20210903-0909) PTA supply will still be treated as an increase, with output at about 1.0845 million tons and the average operating rate at 81.80%.
Expected changes in downstream polyester
According to Longzhong’s understanding, the following There are expectations for device restarts in the market this week. For example, Yizheng Chemical Fiber’s 200,000 tons/year maintenance device plans to restart, but there are also factories that plan to reduce production, such as Fujian Baihong. The sharp increase in production and sales during the week has slightly delayed the production reduction plan of polyester filament factories. It is expected that the supply of domestic polyester factories may decline within a narrow range next week. The output of the domestic polyester industry will decline slightly, and we will continue to pay close attention to this. It is expected that next week (20210903-0909) the output of the polyester industry will be at the level of 1.08-1.09 million tons, and the load will be above 85%.
PTA trend forecast
It is expected that the PTA market will adjust within a narrow range next week . The OPEC meeting decided to maintain its previous plan to increase production slightly month by month. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell but gasoline inventories increased. International oil prices fluctuated slightly, and costs were considered stable for the time being. PTA’s own supply growth is expected, and terminal orders are weak. The polyester end may continue its production reduction plan, and the PTA basis continues to weaken, adding to the expectation of accumulation of supply and demand. Judging from the market trend survey data next week, the views of rising, stable, and falling accounted for 25%, 38%, and 37% respectively. Taken together, under the background of limited cost drivers and weak supply and demand, the short-term PTA market is expected to weaken and adjust. The PTA price range is expected to be 4,800-5,000 yuan/ton next week. </p
