On the 28th, considering that there will be no centralized supply of downstream weaving in the month For goods, mainstream major manufacturers have launched a month-end profit promotion model. The polyester yarn trading atmosphere in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is hot. Some mainstream factories have promoted price reductions of 200-500 yuan/ton. The daily production and sales are mostly around 200%-300%, and some are as high as around 500%. Some factories have not promoted the production and sales. It’s on the low side, around 60%-80%.
Familiar formula, familiar taste, the polyester factory’s Monday sales seem to be back!
InmorethantwomonthsfromApriltoearlyJuly,polyesterfactorieslaunchedmultiplepromotions,and”promotion” has become a mode of daily sales at polyester factories. This model brought good performance to polyester factories from April to June.
And judging from the previous promotions, each promotion chooses an interval of about a week on average, with a reduction ranging from 200-400 yuan, which will There will be a slight correction on the next day. In other words, despite many promotions, the price of polyester filament has fluctuated and stabilized in more than two months, without significant changes. Therefore, the promotion of polyester yarn has not had much impact on future prices. However, in July, as raw materials drove polyester raw materials to rise wildly and then fall sharply, the sales frequency of polyester factories changed. End demand continued to perform poorly, and procurement was difficult to achieve the overwhelming production and sales performance of the previous months. The market The production and sales data dropped significantly, and the performance was deserted.
Withthegoodproductionandsalesonthe28th,theinventoryofpolyesterfactorieshasbeenpartiallyalleviated.Aseveryoneknows,afterdestocking,thepolyesterfactorieswilltakebackthediscountsintheshortterm,buteverytimethehotsalescontinuetobedifficulttolast.Onthe29thand30th,withthepricecorrectionatpolyesterfactories,productionandsalesinstantlydroppedtolessthan50%.
From the perspective of polyester supply and demand, in August, considering that the OPEC+ meeting will be in early September, international crude oil may remain in a state of shock and consolidation in the near future, while the main raw material PTA factory maintains contract reductions to varying degrees, and the supply is relatively tight. Therefore, raw materials There is still support at the end, and the supply of polyester filament itself has recently increased by Shaoxing Hengming’s 600,000-ton unit. Although relevant areas have been affected by power cuts to varying degrees from July to September, considering that the impact is relatively limited, polyester filament will be used in the short term. Construction starts may remain between 93% and 96%, and supply remains high.
From a general perspective, the market situation in August is very similar to that in July. The difference is that we need to pay attention to the recovery of the demand side in August.
Current orders have become the strongest “bullet” in the current environment. Recently, the situation of new orders for downstream looms has been mixed, with serious polarization. Some companies said that the market conditions in the early stage were generally very good, the supply of products exceeded demand, and the companies had no product inventory. However, at the current stage, the order stamina for conventional products is insufficient, and the market situation in the later period is unclear; the market conditions for high-end products and unconventional small-volume products are considerable, and the continuity of orders and benefits are good.
Judging from the effect of this promotion, the raw materials purchased by the downstream at the end of June and early July have been consumed, and a new round of replenishment cycle has entered, but in fact the effect is not It is not optimistic. Most stocking conditions remain normal for one week and half a month. On the one hand, the global clothing industry is still suffering from the impact of the epidemic. In the face of today’s market environment, many textile companies are “gritting their teeth and getting through the difficulties.” Overall, The gray cloth, fabric and other industrial chains are gradually recovering, and there has not been a big improvement. Enterprises are still cautious in placing and receiving orders, and replenishment is mainly based on rigid needs. Time is still needed to trade space, so the expected demand in August is Weak, in addition, there may be greater purchasing pressure due to the impact of working capital.
But even so, according to the promotion routine of polyester factories in the past few months, although polyester filament yarns are continuously promoted, the price is still rising slowly. At the same time, based on the mentality of buying up and not down, once there is any disturbance on the raw material side, the price increase effect will be immediate. Therefore, the editor believes that the market in August still needs to pay attention to the rise and fall of the raw material side. When the raw material side stabilizes, demand Only when extreme changes dominate the polyester market can it gradually emerge.
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