Since July 20, the price of Zheng Cotton CF2109 contract has risen from 16,380 yuan/ton to 17,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.43%. The average daily transaction price of cotton reserves also rose from 16,652 yuan/ton to 17,008 yuan/ton, among which the daily transaction price of Xinjiang cotton reserves rose from 16,836 yuan/ton to 17,176 yuan/ton.
Some cotton spinning mills in Shandong, Henan, Xinjiang and other places have reported that the large increase in cotton has caused a significant decline in spinning profits compared with June, which in turn affected the third and fourth quarters. one. Spinners in Changji, Shihezi and other places in Xinjiang reported that they have just received the first C40S cotton yarn order in September. In previous years, orders for the same period have been placed in mid-to-late October.
So last week’s sharp rise in cotton futures will have a big impact on cotton textile companies’ orders? According to the author’s survey results of cotton customers in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Henan, Anhui and other places, the impact should not be exaggerated and there is not enough material for speculation.
First, the price of Zheng yarn futures rose significantly higher than that of cotton last Thursday and Friday. In the past two days, the ex-factory price of domestic cotton yarn has increased to varying degrees, and the rising pressure on raw materials has been relieved to a certain extent. Digestion.
Second, the net spinning profit of cotton spinning mills remained high from May to July. The profit of C32 medium and high-end cotton yarn is generally 1,500-2,000 yuan/ton (high-count carded, combed Therefore, even if the cotton futures price rises by 700-900 yuan/ton, yarn mills can respond by adjusting cotton allocation, reducing losses, etc., and are far from being unable to receive orders.
Thirdly, in the past more than half a month, the quotations of imported cotton yarn, whether for cargo, bonded or customs clearance, have fluctuated and risen. In addition, the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate has caused the impact of foreign yarn on domestic yarn. has weakened, and the negative effects of rising cotton prices have been conditionally digested.
The fourth is the expectation of high-priced seed cotton harvests in 2021/22 and the arrival of the peak season for autumn and winter textile and clothing orders, which makes cotton spinning mills unwilling to accept low-profit medium and long-term orders, such as gauze. The accumulated inventory is not obvious and the capital flow is sufficient, which leads to the confidence of cotton yarn to increase. </p
