In more than a month since entering the Year of the Ox, the international crude oil market has started a “roller coaster” market with a “heartbeat”. Oil prices have shown a trend of skyrocketing rises and falls, with the frequency and amplitude obviously accelerating. After last week’s huge earthquake, international oil prices took another heavy hit overnight. Data shows that the prices of the main U.S. and Burundi oil contracts both plummeted by more than 6% overnight. As of 6:00 on March 24, Beijing time, their prices have both retreated by more than 15% from their recent highs on March 8. Industry insiders generally believe that the resurgence of the epidemic in Europe and issues with vaccine supply and vaccination are the triggers for recent fluctuations in international oil prices.
U.S. oil fell below 60 US dollars mark
The high point fell by more than 15%
In the early morning of March 24, Beijing time, international oil prices continued to fall after opening low. U.S. oil prices fell below the $60/barrel mark again. As of 6:00 on the 24th, the main NYMEX crude oil contract fell 6.76% to US$57.40/barrel; the main ICE Brent oil contract fell 6.35% to US$60.42/barrel.
Judging from recent performance, international oil prices hit a new high in the past 14 months on March 8 , the price of the main contract of NYMEX crude oil was close to US$68/barrel at one time, and the price of the main contract of ICE Brent oil stood at US$71/barrel. Since then, the prices of the two oils have begun to fluctuate and fall. Not long ago, on March 18, their single-day declines were close to 8%. As of 6:00 on March 24, Beijing time, the prices of the two oils had retreated by 15.56% and 15.35% respectively from the high point on March 8.
European epidemic has resurfaced
Oil prices have fallen again due to lockdowns in many countries
What stimulated another downward trend in oil prices? Market participants generally believe that it is still related to the rebound of the epidemic in Europe.
Due to obvious side effects during the vaccination process of the AstraZeneca vaccine produced in the UK, many European countries have suspended the vaccination. At the same time, as the new coronavirus mutates, Under the influence, the epidemic situation in some countries has shown signs of resurgence again, which has had a significant impact on the original expectations that the recovery of the epidemic will bring about an increase in crude oil demand. The re-implementation of blockades in some European countries has intensified the weak market demand for crude oil. worries.
On the other hand, pressure comes from the United States. Although the Chairman of the Federal Reserve stated this week that he will not initiate interest rate hikes before 2023, the United States is facing rising inflation expectations. Bond yields continue to rise, which has had a significant negative impact on global financial assets, and crude oil prices have also been greatly affected.
In addition, the relationship between the United States and Russia has become tense again this week. Investors are worried that the United States will sanction Russia again and prompt the latter to increase crude oil exports to combat U.S. shale. In the oil industry, especially when oil prices are at a relatively high level, the expectation of increased supply has become an important factor affecting oil prices.
The cost defense line has fallen
Polyester and polyester products may continue to find new low support points
In fact, before the new round of crude oil plunge, PTA and ethylene glycol have actually stabilized after the plunge. However, if the city gate catches fire, Chiyu will inevitably suffer. , the already precarious market will be once again brought into a downward spiral by oil prices.
The plummeting price of crude oil not only led to the decline in the prices of raw material products such as PTA and ethylene glycol, but also the price of polyester fiber products gradually collapsed due to the collapse of costs. For example, on the 24th The polyester factory lowered its product quotation again after the previous price reduction of 200-400 yuan. According to common sense, the decline in raw material prices should be conducive to the purchase of raw materials by downstream polyester customers. However, companies have expressed “dare not buy”. According to industry insiders, when purchasing raw materials, companies generally buy up prices rather than down prices. . When oil prices fall, people will be more cautious about purchasing raw materials. In this case, the current inventory of polyester factories continues to rise and accumulate, and downstream demand is stagnant and insufficient. If the cost line of defense is also lost, polyester and polyester products may continue to Go find new low support points.
The bullish factors still exist
The polyester industry chain needs time to repair
However, market participants believe that the current positive factors still exist. First, although the high-level meeting between China and the United States was full of words and refused to give in to each other, the press conference after the meeting The statement above shows that Sino-US relations have not continued to deteriorate, and both sides are exploring each other’s bottom line; secondly, with the global vaccination of vaccines and the continued improvement of the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States, the economy, trade, transportation, etc. are struggling to recover, and the consumer demand for textile and clothing The “darkest moment” has passed; third, the Federal Reserve’s continued ultra-loose monetary policy has intensified global inflationary pressure; fourth, the central bank’s monetary policy is not a turn, but only a phased tightening, with a high probability of releasing liquidity in March and April.
The current “negative decline” is mainly due to the “overdraft” of prices and confidence caused by the sharp rise and fall of crude oil and polyester raw materials. The industrial chain will take time to repair.
However, the editor believes that market prices are the most direct reflection of the market. From the above comparison, it is not difficult to find that international oil prices fluctuate frequently, although there are still certain prices for polyester raw materials PTA and MEG. The impact on the cost side is obvious, but the indirect impact on the polyester side is significantly weakened.
YesFor the polyester market, the decisive factor is still the supply and demand situation. From the perspective of demand, as raw material prices fluctuate and fall, downstream orders are cautious, and the market is insufficient in large orders. Therefore, downstream textile companies are less willing to replenish high-priced raw materials. In addition, the inventory of gray fabric finished products has increased, and the purchasing mentality of textile companies is relatively cautious.
Overall On the market, the loose supply situation continues, coupled with the expectation that demand will begin to weaken, and trade relations are uncertain, the market is expected to weaken in the near future, and the export market is relatively active. The inquiry and stakeout of brands have increased significantly compared with before, and some proofing has received feedback. However, due to the continued fluctuation of raw material prices in the domestic market, it may have a great impact on the profit margin of later orders. </p
