According to statistics from a number of clothing e-commerce companies, from November and December last year to early January this year, down jacket sales generally increased by 30%, becoming the flagship product of most stores, and many popular products due to Removed due to insufficient stock.
.” Recently, Qiu Guokai, the person in charge of Yipin Tiancheng, compiled a list and counted the regional rankings of the best-selling regional sales of women’s down jackets from January 1st to January 7th. It was found that Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang ranked 817, 348, and 335 respectively. Ranked among the top three in terms of sales volume. “In previous years, down jacket sales ranked first in the Northeast region,” Qiu Guokai was also a little surprised. “This year’s data is a bit abnormal. The first place is Guangdong?”
The deterrent effect of this cold wave on southerners Far more profound than imagined. Judging from the sales of several e-commerce companies, there were two peaks of down jacket buying during “Double 11” and “Double 12”, triggered by promotional activities. Compared with the same period of the previous year, the increase was significant. The main reason was that sales in the southern region Big rise. If “Double 11” and “Double 12” are promotions, then early January is a daily purchase. The continued high sales of down jackets verify the nervousness of southerners facing the cold wave.
The surge in market demand should have been a “prosperous” scene, but it was not so “beautiful” behind the scenes. Regarding the textile industry this year, the most common feeling among everyone is that “they were very busy, but in the end they didn’t make any money”!
The confusion of down jacket companies:
Operation at full capacity, orders are too late for production, but they are made at a loss!
Hangzhou Asijia Home Textile Co., Ltd., which focuses on the domestic market, has more than 50 offline physical stores, concentrated in East China and North China. Physical sales currently still account for About 90% of total sales revenue. “The counters have been out of stock, and my phone has been buzzing with calls.” Jia Jing, the company’s general manager, said that it was too late to place the order, which has lasted for three months.
“The entire market is in short supply of yarn and gray fabrics, and coupled with the surge in orders, there is no time to produce quilt covers and quilt shells.” Jia Jing said that thanks to the vigorous development of non-physical store sales models last year , received many large group buying orders, and coincidentally, popular orders for TV shopping and live broadcast sales were also gathered together. Because of the epidemic, the factory was cautious about stocking up. I didn’t expect that there would be so many orders. The stocking was insufficient and the factory couldn’t produce it even if it was running at full capacity. Take the order volume for quilt shells made of 80-count fabrics. Just one order amounted to 12,000 pieces. However, There are still 30% of orders that cannot be completed and can only be produced slowly one after another. Sales are always out of stock.
For sporadic and urgent orders, they can only find other processing factories to rush the work, but other factories are also operating at full capacity, and orders come at the last minute, but they are basically rejected.
“Some home textile processing factories in India and Brazil are still unable to operate normally due to epidemic prevention and control. Overseas orders continue to flow back to China. Domestic home textile processing production orders are full. Compared with overseas orders, , these factories are unwilling to accept domestic high-demand, scattered orders.” “A few days ago, I ordered a batch of fabrics to make a new spring and summer four-piece set. Two days later, they were out of stock. I said I would wait until The goods will be available after the Spring Festival, and there is no way to catch up with the new spring and summer models, so we have no choice but to increase the number of old models.” Jia Jing said.
“Order volume surged in the second half of last year. Compared with 2019, export orders increased by 20%-30%. It was too late to fill orders. The factory was operating at full capacity. Orders in March and April this year Everything has been arranged.” Zhu Zhiliang, chairman of Zhejiang Samsung Down Co., Ltd., said that taking into account the funding cycle and risks, they will also evaluate the orders and choose some brands with better reputations to cooperate.
In addition to the unavailability of orders, the prices of fabrics and down raw materials have soared. “The price of fabrics on the market is now about 10%-20% higher than the same period last year, and the price of down has risen even more.” Hu Yajun, general manager of Zhejiang Lanbo Home Furnishing Co., Ltd., said that the price of down last year was a “roller coaster”. The price was very low at the beginning of the year. They were worried about the lack of orders in the second half of the year, so they signed a lot of orders. Later, the price of down went up, and many orders were made at a loss.
According to statistics from the China Down Industry Association, since the fourth quarter of 2020, the industry market has begun to recover rapidly, and the price of down raw materials has risen sharply. The price of 90 white duck down per kilogram was 200.4 yuan at the beginning of May last year. By the end of October, it had risen to 325.9 yuan, a price increase of more than 60%.
The helplessness of textile companies:
Factories are busy rushing to weave orders, and the profits are bitter.
With the surge in raw material prices in January, a “boost” was injected into the market. With strong support from the cost side and favorable factors such as free vaccination across the country, clothing customers Orders have also been placed one after another, and both autumn and winter fabrics and spring and summer fabrics have performed well. Especially in January this year, a strong cold wave ushered in, and the temperature across the country was extremely low, which also drove the sales of down fabrics. Clothing manufacturers’ inventory reduction will inevitably increase orders or prepare for next year’s stocking, so the overall market order performance is good.
Recently, elastic fabrics are still performing strongly in the market, especially foreign trade orders. Recently, I heard that T400 and four-way elastic are in large quantities in dyeing factories. Some dyeing factories said that the shipment of stretch fabrics has been slow recently. “���It takes 15-20 days to ship out after entering the warehouse, and it needs to be pressed. Many of them are elastic fabrics, mostly T400, and customers are also stocking up. ” said a dyeing factory salesperson.
Many textile bosses said that market orders were concentrated at the end of December last year Therefore, the factory has more or less orders on hand for execution. The better orders have been received after the Spring Festival, and the more average orders are received around late January. The market is not very enthusiastic about urgent orders at present. After all, the orders are currently on hand. The order has not yet been completed, and there are many uncertainties in later production.
“For several months, we have been working overtime to produce, and we are grateful for the substantial increase in orders. However, the sharp appreciation of the RMB has caused our profits to shrink a lot. The more orders a company has and the better its revenue, the more serious the losses will be. Who can bear this? “On November 27, 2020, Li Yong, the head of Zhejiang Textile Enterprises, complained to reporters.
On November 18, 2020, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market rose to 1 The U.S. dollar was 6.5593 yuan against the RMB, officially opening the “6.5 yuan era.” At the same time, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the U.S. dollar successively hit new highs in the past two and a half years. Compared with the onshore RMB against the U.S. dollar on May 27, which was 7.1765 At the low point of the yuan, the RMB has risen by more than 6,000 points, an increase of 8%.
“The RMB exchange rate fluctuated too much last year. Although it is basically based on the long-term exchange rate, at high If the US dollar reaches a low point now, it will still have an impact on enterprises. Li Yong said.
Meng Zhuo, manager of Anhui Garment Import and Export Co., Ltd., said that the company’s export volume during this peak season (July to October) was approximately US$150 million. The time is generally one month or 45 days behind the shipment time. Calculated based on the exchange profit and loss of 0.20 per US dollar, the loss will reach 30 million yuan. The company usually adopts exchange lock measures for some orders, but these are not enough to offset this. The impact of rising raw material and transportation costs.
An industry insider said that for relatively small foreign trade companies in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the best survival interest rate is 7, reaching 6.7 After that, foreign trade companies had almost no profits. “Profits were basically swallowed up by the increase in shipping costs and the appreciation of the RMB. In addition, the price of raw materials has increased by about 20% from the lowest point in March and April 2020. We are biting the bullet, especially The two months at the end of the year are simply too hard to get off. Most of our orders come from large and old customers. It’s good to have orders during the epidemic. We also need to keep the business running and feed the workers, which is also to maintain long-term customer relationships. “The person in charge of the company said that the order cycle in the industry is about two months, and the company does not know the trend of the exchange rate when receiving orders. He said, “The entire fourth quarter was basically at a low profit or loss, and even exports The more you have, the more you lose. ”
After the concentrated outbreak of this round of market orders, the “window period” in the market outlook may be longer!
The “turnaround” of the textile and garment industry is mainly due to In the second half of 2020. Data show that from January to August, the national textile and apparel export volume was 187.41 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, and the growth rate was 1.3 percentage points faster than that from January to July. In the month of August, the national textile export volume was 14.72 billion US dollars. US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 47%; clothing exports were US$16.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, achieving positive monthly growth for the first time in the year. Since May, the number of orders for China’s fabrics and textile raw materials has increased by more than 100%; the number of orders in the clothing industry has increased by 200% year-on-year. More than %, the apparel industry achieved a three-fold growth in July.
For many people, the current market situation is actually beyond expectations:
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On the one hand, raw materials have bottomed out and rebounded, and the market cost side has released a bottom signal, which has led to better-than-expected order stocking operations for raw materials and gray fabrics, and market orders have been issued one after another;
On the other hand, the recurrence of the new crown epidemic may lead to a lot of uncertainties at home and abroad, especially as many overseas countries and regions have begun a new round of “city closure” policies. There are too many uncertainties in the market. In addition, the time for domestic employees to return home is not clear. Production is unstable after the Spring Festival and delivery times are affected. Therefore, some orders are placed in advance to prevent delays in later delivery.
Whether you just need to buy the bottom or place an order in advance, the recent market conditions are still better than expected, but the editor believes that there are still negative factors in the market, especially the resurgence of the epidemic.
The weather is cold, the domestic epidemic shows signs of counterattack in some parts, and the foreign epidemic continues to ferment. The epidemic is still a “time bomb” for the textile and apparel market.
From the perspective of the overall environment, the Spring Festival There are still certain variables in foreign trade orders, and coupled with the advance of orders, orders placed after the Spring Festival this year may not be as good as in previous years.</p
