In the past year, a sudden epidemic has changed the living patterns of many people, changed the production plans of many companies, changed the operating rhythm of the entire China, and changed the global economic development…
In the context of the epidemic, the chemical fiber industry has fallen into difficulties such as sluggish domestic demand and blocked exports. However, there are many bright spots in the operation of the industry, including technological innovation, green development, intelligent manufacturing, and refining and chemical integration. , digital economy, industry-finance cooperation, etc., which are in line with the overall development characteristics during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period, and also have new development models spawned by new situations and new business formats, further consolidating the industry’s position in the global fiber industry and position in the larger system of China’s textile industry.
Recently, Duan Xiaoping, vice president of the China Textile Industry Federation and president of the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, was interviewed by our reporter. He interpreted the various changes that have occurred in the chemical fiber industry in the past year and analyzed the impact of these changes on the industry. Enlightenment and thinking, and looked forward to the development focus of the industry during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period.
Under the impact of the epidemic, there are still bright spots in industry performance
Overview of the economic performance of the chemical fiber industry throughout the year , it can be seen that the chemical fiber industry has been greatly affected by the COVID-19 epidemic. From January to October 2020, my country’s chemical fiber output was 49.85 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.26%; operating income was 657.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.81%. The total profit achieved was 16.19 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 29.97% year-on-year; the operating income profit margin was 2.46%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.64 percentage points; the losses of loss-making enterprises increased by 48.49% year-on-year; the actual investment in the chemical fiber industry decreased by 20.6% year-on-year.
Analyzing the reasons, firstly, because the epidemic broke out shortly before the Spring Festival, many companies were on holiday, reducing production or suspending production. The sudden epidemic caught companies unprepared, resulting in delayed resumption of work, blocked transportation and logistics, reduced market demand orders, and raw and auxiliary equipment. There are a series of problems such as insufficient supply of materials, shortage of protective equipment, and increased product inventory. Second, after the domestic epidemic was effectively controlled, the operation of the chemical fiber industry gradually began to resume. However, the rapid spread of overseas epidemics severely hit the global economy. The global economic recession led to the collapse of market confidence, and commodity prices fell sharply. In April, WTI crude oil futures prices once fell. is a negative value. The decline in oil prices has, on the one hand, aggravated the market’s bearish mentality, and the chemical fiber market prices have frequently hit record lows. Taking PTA and polyester POY as examples, the average prices in 2020 have dropped by 37% and 30% respectively compared with 2019; on the other hand, it has also caused chemical fiber companies to Raw material and product inventory losses were large.
The impact of the epidemic on the chemical fiber industry is more importantly reflected in the demand side. The industry is trapped in the dilemma of sluggish domestic demand and blocked exports. The peak of polyester production capacity has encountered a decline in terminal demand, and the contradiction between production capacity in the industry chain has become prominent in stages. With the rebound of the domestic economy, although the decline in various operating indicators of the industry is gradually narrowing and the quality and efficiency level is gradually improved, the operating pressure of the industry is still obvious.
“Although the operation of the industry has been affected to a certain extent, the overall operation is relatively stable. It can also be seen from the overall operation data of the textile industry that among the main product categories of the textile industry, only nonwovens and chemical fibers have achieved positive growth in output. This reflects The rigid demand characteristics of the chemical fiber industry are still relatively obvious. Moreover, this rigid demand characteristics have some similarities with other bulk raw materials such as steel and coal.” Duan Xiaoping analyzed, “But what cannot be ignored is that currently, the production and operation of the industry and enterprises The pressure has not been completely relieved, development confidence is still insufficient, and the negative growth trend of efficiency and investment has not yet been reversed; on the other hand, the chemical fiber industry still has a certain relative excess capacity, which needs to attract industry attention in the future.”
The impact of this epidemic on terminal consumption It has also had an impact. The consumption of formal wear has decreased, and the consumption of sports, leisure and home textiles and clothing has increased. Correspondingly, the demand for polyester DTY has increased, while FDY has dropped significantly. “With changes in the consumption structure, industry companies should make timely adjustments, but they must also objectively and deeply analyze whether such changes will continue, rather than making adjustments hastily.” Duan Xiaoping explained that in the long run, the epidemic will It will accelerate the structural adjustment of the industry and further promote the supply-side structural reform. Enterprises should think deeply about their future layout.
In addition, the significant changes brought by the epidemic to the industry include domestic carbon fiber, which has bucked the trend. Its annual output has increased to about 15,000 tons, and its market share has further increased.
Since 2020, under the background that the epidemic has posed a huge test to the macroeconomic operations of various countries around the world and the industrial economic operations of all walks of life, the performance of well-known carbon fiber companies in Japan and the United States has declined sharply. However, my country’s carbon fiber market has Bucking the trend, it showed a gratifying situation of increased production and sales. “There are two reasons that can explain this phenomenon. One is that carbon fiber is used in sports and leisure, aerospace, wind power and other fields, and these demands will not decline due to the epidemic. The second is that due to the impact of the epidemic, foreign carbon fiber companies have reduced production and transportation It is not smooth and affects market expansion.” Regarding the shortage of domestic carbon fiber in 2020, Duan Xiaoping believes that this shows that the quality of my country’s carbon fiber has basically passed the standard and will usher in a wider market in the future.
The advantages of refining and chemical integration are fully demonstrated
In an environment where the operations of most enterprises are generally affected, Some leading companies that implement the “refining and chemical integration” development model have performed relatively well, with both revenue and profits increasing significantly.companies are deeply aware that they must accelerate digital transformation in order to better cope with industry upgrading competition. During the epidemic period, the highly intelligent production workshops and intelligent management systems in the chemical fiber industry have greatly reduced the pressure on enterprises to prevent epidemics.
During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, the chemical fiber industry must increase the intensity of machine replacement and continue to improve the level of intelligent manufacturing. Chemical fiber companies must gradually integrate upstream suppliers, the company itself and downstream customers through the implementation of intelligent manufacturing. All data will be connected to realize data flow sharing, so that customer stickiness will continue to increase, thereby taking the lead in the “Internet of Everything” market.
Hand in hand with coal chemical industry to ensure industrial safety
At the just held 2020 China Textile Conference, there were A special moment – Shanxi moment. At this link, the China National Textile and Apparel Industry Federation signed a contract with the Shanxi Provincial People’s Government and the Yangquan Municipal People’s Government to start comprehensive cooperation to jointly create the future of Shanxi’s textile, chemical fiber and fashion industries.
As we all know, China is a country rich in coal but short of oil and gas. Chemical fiber, which accounts for 84% of textile raw materials, is 90% derived from petroleum. In recent years, the international trade environment has become increasingly severe and complex, which may have a huge impact on the production of the textile industry. my country’s energy supply is dominated by coal. Coal accounted for 57.7% of my country’s energy structure in 2019. Coal’s role as a back-up guarantee is crucial to maintaining national energy security, especially the security of the textile industry, during the “14th Five-Year Plan” and beyond. It is crucial, and one of the current focuses of the industry is to mature the industrial chain from coal chemicals to cloth.
Now, 2021 has arrived, and the “14th Five-Year Plan” has arrived. How to do a good job in chemical fiber under new changes, new situations, new business formats, new eras, new development stages, and new international patterns? Industry and achieving high-quality development are issues that the entire industry must study and think about in depth. Let’s take action now! </p
