Introduction: Due to national conditions, domestic ethylene glycol is mostly imported, and the import dependence has always been around 60%. In recent years, domestic downstream polyester production capacity has been increasing year by year, and the demand for ethylene glycol is increasing day by day. Here Under this situation, new domestic investment in equipment is also in full swing, but due to no cost advantage, imported resources still dominate.
Figure 1 Domestic ethylene glycol import volume changes from 2016 to 2020
Source: Longzhong Information
Figure 2 Domestic ethylene glycol imports from 2016 to 2020 Volume change trend chart
Source: Longzhong Information
From past years According to the import data, domestic ethylene glycol imports are increasing year by year. In 2018, domestic import volume exceeded the 9 million tons mark for the first time, with an increase of 12.26%. Based on the substantial increase in domestic production capacity, domestic ethylene glycol production capacity in 2020 has been basically raised to 13.881 million tons, an increase of 25.84%. There is still an increase expected in the fourth quarter, import volume is expected to be more than 11 million tons, and import dependence is expected to be 55.32 %.
Figure 3 Comparison of import source countries from January to August
Source: Longzhong Information
From the perspective of import source countries, the growth rate in the first half of this year was relatively obvious in the United States, Iran, and India, while Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates shrank. In the second half of last year, multiple sets of ethylene glycol plants were added to the United States. The United States has changed from a net importer of ethylene glycol to the current net exporter. Its exports, especially to China, have increased significantly. As for India, India’s own production capacity is limited, and due to the blockade measures caused by the public health incident in the first half of the year, a large amount of goods already exported to India were re-exported to China. The changes in Iran and the United Arab Emirates are mainly due to the fact that due to sanctions and other reasons, some Iranian goods were re-exported to China through the United Arab Emirates. This phenomenon is currently changing. In Saudi Arabia, China’s largest importer, due to OPCE’s production reduction measures, ethylene glycol production shrank by about 10%, and imports dropped significantly in the first half of the year.
Taken together: The United States has changed from a net importer of ethylene glycol to a net exporter since the second half of 2019. Coupled with the impact of this year’s epidemic, a large amount of U.S. resources have flowed into China. ; The demand for ethylene glycol in Europe itself is limited, and it has entered the off-season for production and sales. The price difference from Europe to China will narrow, and goods exported to Europe will come to China again. Therefore, given the cost advantage, the base of downstream polyester production capacity continues to increase, and the demand is stable, import dependence may decrease, but import volume will continue to be high. </p
