On Monday, US stocks were closed for Memorial Day and the LME was closed for the Spring Bank Holiday. International oil prices closed higher as countries gradually lifted blockades and inventories fell, and the degree of oversupply gradually eased. The Russian Energy Ministry said last night that Russian production has reached OPEC+ target levels. European refinery output in April was 8.862 million barrels per day, down 5.9% from March and down 16% year-on-year. As of early morning closing this morning, the European Stoxx50 index rose 2.14%; the U.S. dollar index fell 0.03%; WTI crude oil rose 0.48%; Brent crude oil rose 1.40%; U.S. copper rose 0.69%; gold rose 0.46%. The offshore yuan CNH fell 0.00% to 7.1454.
On May 25, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced the lifting of the ongoing “emergency declaration” in the five prefectures of Hokkaido, Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, and Kanagawa.
Worldometers real-time statistics show that as of 5:58 on May 26, Beijing time, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia worldwide was close to 5.57 million, reaching 5,569,690, and the cumulative number of deaths exceeded 346,000, reaching 346,927 cases. The cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceeds 1.7 million in the world, reaching 1,703,881, and the cumulative number of deaths exceeds 99,000, reaching 99,754. There are 370,060 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Brazil, 353,427 confirmed cases in Russia, 282,480 confirmed cases in Spain, 261,184 confirmed cases in the UK, 230,158 confirmed cases in Italy, 182,942 confirmed cases in France, 180,789 confirmed cases in Germany, and 157,814 confirmed cases in Turkey. A total of 144,941 cases have been diagnosed in India, 137,724 cases have been confirmed in Iran, 119,959 cases have been confirmed in Peru, and 85,679 cases have been confirmed in Canada.
Oil prices have “established a firm footing”, and chemical product prices have stopped falling and rebounded
Recently, the supply and demand structure of the international crude oil market has improved significantly, and oil prices have stopped falling and stabilized. In the context of oil prices “establishing a firm footing”, confidence in long-term downstream energy and chemical commodities has gradually recovered. A reporter from Futures Daily noticed that as of Monday afternoon’s close, the most volatile products were glass, asphalt and manganese silicon. Xia Qi, head of CITIC Futures R&D Department, told a reporter from Futures Daily that glass hit its daily limit, mainly boosted by the improvement in supply and demand in the spot market. On the one hand, the suspension of production lines in the northern production areas has improved supply pressure; on the other hand, downstream traders and consumer companies have increased their purchasing and stocking up, increasing their confidence in stocking up.
Zhang Chi, chief researcher of energy and chemical commodities at Guotai Junan Futures, told reporters that the 09 glass futures contract hit the daily limit on Monday. The short-term price is overvalued, and the glass market will fall into a long oscillation market. The glass spot market has been relatively strong in recent times. On the one hand, stock orders have begun to be executed intensively in the past month and a half; on the other hand, traders and terminal manufacturers have continued to be enthusiastic about stocking up. There is always room for arbitrage in sales from Hubei and Hebei regions to Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions. The above situation supports the increase in glass spot prices and the decrease in manufacturers’ inventories. Especially in Hubei, on the one hand, manufacturers in Hubei dump a large amount of inventory on the futures market; on the other hand, they sell it to other markets at low prices, and the inventory is removed quickly.
In addition, after the inventory fell sharply, prices in Hubei increased rapidly. On May 22, the ex-factory price in Hubei increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the market price increased by 60 yuan/ton. Shipments to other regions across the country are also relatively smooth. It should be pointed out that this good shipment situation has had inconsistent signals. “Southern China has been unable to increase prices recently, and transactions have slowed down. In recent times, the downstream enthusiasm for stockpiling has been relatively enthusiastic, and considerable profits have been accumulated. However, the next two months or so will be the off-season for glass demand, and spot transactions will It will weaken and have an impact on the market. The current glass futures 09 contract is 100 yuan/ton higher than the spot price. Although the peak season is expected, there is already a suspicion of overdraft.” Zhang Chi said.
Li Yanjie, an energy and chemical analyst at CITIC Futures, told the Futures Daily reporter that the price of the main contract of asphalt futures rose sharply on Monday, with a closing increase of 3.38%, and the closing price was the highest since March 9. As of May 21, the average operating rate of asphalt installations across the country was 60.31%, a decrease of 2.55% from last week. This was due to the lower operating rates of different asphalt refineries. There was no significant change in the total social inventory of asphalt from last week, but the social inventory in Shandong and East China decreased to a certain extent from the previous week; the total inventory of asphalt refineries increased slightly, and the inventory of refineries in Shandong and East China decreased month-on-month. Due to more rainfall in South China, refinery stocks Factory inventories increased slightly. Refinery profits are affected by the rise in crude oil prices at the cost end. The theoretical profit of the refinery has dropped significantly, but there is still a production profit of about 300 yuan/ton. On the demand side, there is no significant recovery in downstream terminal road demand. The continued heavy rainfall in South China is negative for asphalt demand. Overall, refinery inventories are not high, but social inventories have not fallen much. This reflects that downstream demand in places such as South China and Jiangnan has not fully recovered due to the influence of weather. In the medium and long term, with crude oil gradually stabilizing, downstream road construction resuming, and the proposal of special bonds and “two new and one heavy” projects, asphalt demand is expected to be strong in the future, and medium and long-term prices will improve.
The Russian Ministry of Energy said production cuts have reached OPEC+ target levels
According to Interfax news agency, the Russian Ministry of Energy expects global oil demand to decline in May After recovery, the current surplus is expected to be 7 million barrels per day to 12 million barrels per day. The Russian Ministry of Energy stated that Russia’s production has reached the OPEC+ target level and hopes that the oil market will reach balance from June to July.
The Russian Ministry of Energy believes that the globalAt present, domestic coke has been destocked for about 6 consecutive weeks, and coke is in a tight balance between supply and demand. If the policy is gradually implemented, a short-term coke gap in East China may be unavoidable. However, in the long run, there will still be new domestic coke production capacity this year, mainly concentrated in Shanxi and other places, which may make up for part of the gap later. However, it will take a long time, and it may take until the fourth quarter for the overall supply and demand pressure to be effectively alleviated. “Zhang Yuan said.
As of Monday afternoon’s close, manganese silicon futures fell by more than 3%. The key reason is that news dominance is the key. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said on May 24, Under strict Covid-19 protocols, South Africa will move to level 3 from June 1 for mining, all manufacturing, construction, financial services, professional and business services, information technology, communications, government services and Media services will be fully restarted from June 1.
“Now that South Africa is unblocked, manganese and silicon prices will return to fundamentals, and domestic port manganese ore inventories are beginning to show signs of recovery. As of last Friday, they have It has returned to the 5.2 million tons level, so it is a double negative superposition for the market. “Li Juan, senior analyst of Huarong Rongda Futures Co., Ltd., said that from the fundamental situation, supply and demand are both increasing, corporate inventories have been transferred, and social inventories are obvious. As of last Friday, my steel network counted 63 independent silicon companies across the country. A sample of manganese companies (accounting for 79.77% of national production capacity) shows that the national inventory is 197,050 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 12,750 tons. The manganese and silicon warehouse receipts are 56,665 tons, a new high on the market. The active continuous contracts help to reduce corporate inventories, but the real meaning The above depot also depends on the purchase volume of steel mills.
It is worth noting that at the time of the bidding and procurement of steel mills in June, Hegang has priced 7,400 yuan/ton acceptance tax at the mill compared with May. fell by 100 yuan/ton, and the pricing of other steel mills is also declining month-on-month. After the current cost increase expectations fail, manganese and silicon futures prices may return to the value center.
“Manganese ore inventories at ports have increased against the trend. As of May On the 24th, Mysteel counted 2.761 million tons of manganese ore inventory in Tianjin Port, an increase of 96,000 tons. Due to the large number of arrivals at the port last week and poor delivery due to high manganese ore spot quotations, it broke the view of all parties that Tianjin Port manganese ore continued to decline. The increase in port inventories has prompted all parties to be bearish on late manganese ore and alloy prices. “Mysteel Manganese and Silicon Analyst Cha Zuodong believes that due to the decrease in overseas mine futures quotations for China last week, UMK’s latest quotation for South African semicarbonate in China in July was reduced by US$0.55/ton, but the price was 6.43 yuan/ton. Domestic acceptance is still average. Coupled with the news that domestic steel mills’ alloy purchase prices were slightly lowered in June, the domestic bearish sentiment is more serious. However, from the perspective of manufacturers, as high-priced manganese ore gradually enters the cost, the current market price is already lower than some Manufacturer’s cost range.
In the view of Zhu Hao, a black researcher at Orient Securities Futures, the recent manganese ore inventory has not continued the previous trend of depletion, but has instead formed a backlog, and South Africa will further relax restrictions after June 1 , causing the market sentiment to gradually turn to pessimism. The main reason for the collapse of the library is that South Africa’s shipments briefly broke out in early April, and the recent arrivals from other countries have also maintained a high level. However, after Monday’s adjustment, the valuation of manganese silicon Becoming more reasonable, South Africa’s shipments continued to decline in mid-to-late April, and arrivals at the port will decline simultaneously in early June. And even if South Africa relaxes restrictions, it is expected that shipments will only return to about 70% of normal levels in the short term, and inventory The rhythm will become a slow one. The systemic inflection point of manganese silicon has not yet arrived, and prices are still mainly oscillating. It is necessary to pay close attention to whether the shipment of manganese ore can return to normal levels after South Africa relaxes the blockade. The turning point needs to wait for the supply of manganese ore to exceed Demand.</p
