When it comes to bulk textile raw materials recently, everyone will think of “rising”!
Since July 20, the price of Zheng Cotton CF2109 contract has risen from 16,380 yuan/ton to 17,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.43%. The average daily transaction price of cotton reserves has also increased from 16,652 yuan/ton to 17,008 yuan/ton, among which the daily transaction price of Xinjiang cotton reserves has increased from 16,836 yuan/ton to 17,176 yuan/ton.
On the other hand, the recent price of PTA has also There has been a sharp rise. According to the latest research report of Wanlian Securities, on July 26, the spot reference price of PTA was 5379.09 yuan/ton, which has increased by 22.14% compared with 4404 yuan/ton on April 1.
Not only the spot price, but also PTA futures in the near future Rising continuously. On July 27, PTA’s main price rose again by more than 2% at the beginning of the session. However, the market was still worried about the tight supply of goods in circulation due to the approaching typhoon, and the price plunged in the afternoon and reduced the gains. As of the closing on the afternoon of the 27th, the main contract PTA2109 rose slightly by 0.30% to close at 5,360 yuan. Since the beginning of this year, the main contract has increased by 42.41%.
Then the spot price of textile raw materials has risen sharply
Is it a big restriction for textile companies to accept orders?
In terms of importance, supply is just the lead for the rise, and demand is what determines the sustainability of the later rally. As the focus of raw material prices shifts upward, the cost of textiles continues to rise. However, it is still the off-season, and raw material prices have increased frequently, causing traders and downstream companies to complain. In the words of a person who has been working in the textile industry for many years, this situation has not been seen for many years. It is too difficult to deal with and the price rises like a mess in the off-season.
Recently, some cotton spinning mills in Shandong, Henan, Xinjiang and other places have reported that the large increase in cotton has caused a significant decline in spinning profits compared with June, thus affecting the Taking orders in the 3rd and 4th quarters. According to statistical data, the profits of 32 varieties of domestic cotton yarn were close to 2,500 yuan/ton in March this year, and the profit level reached the highest point in the past decade. As cotton prices rose in June and July, spinning profits have dropped to around 1,500 yuan/ton. Spinners in Changji, Shihezi and other places in Xinjiang reported that they have just received the first C40S order in September. In previous years, orders for the same period have been placed in mid-to-late October.
From the perspective of current domestic exports, demand is stable and improving. Data released by the General Administration of Customs on July 13 shows that China’s textile and apparel exports remained stable in the first half of the year. Growth, in terms of RMB and US dollars, increased by 3.3% and 11.9% respectively over the same period last year. However, last year’s overwhelming domestic orders did not appear. The textile exports of neighboring Vietnam increased by 20% year-on-year. It can be seen that we are losing certain advantages. . Of course, if demand is fully released, this increase in Vietnam will not affect our demand side. What will really affect it is the epidemic.
Looking at the epidemic as a whole, the United Kingdom, Indonesia, India, Iran, and Russia are the five countries with the largest number of newly confirmed cases. Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, and Colombia , Argentina is among the five countries with the largest number of new deaths. The mutated virus makes even those who have been vaccinated no longer safe. Simply put, this winter seems to be a difficult time to endure. There is a risk of the epidemic spreading, so there is a question mark as to whether demand can be unleashed to the greatest extent.
Simply put, the rising trend of bulk textile raw materials is still there, and the logic is still relatively strong, but it is not impeccable. The uncontrollable future demand caused by the epidemic has become the biggest There are uncertainties because, while you are bullish, you need to do a good job in risk control to prevent falls. After all, the person sitting opposite you who is shorting the opponent is not a fool. Once he has the opportunity, he will punch him hard.
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