Yesterday, under the background of weakening macroeconomic expectations, the stock market and commodity market fell into a correction as a whole, and the PTA2109 contract was affected. After hitting a new high of 5486 yuan / ton for the year yesterday, recouped most of its gains. Based on the fact that the current demand for polyester is basically stable, the tight PTA spot situation has not yet eased, supply and demand are well supported, and the upward trend of the mid- to long-term PTA spot market has not changed.
Current prices and basis: East China PTA The market spot price rose by 1,720 yuan/ton from the low in mid-November last year to the high of 4,740 yuan/ton after the Spring Festival. It rose by 1,720 yuan/ton in three months. Later, as the overall commodity market corrected, profits were cleared in large quantities. After the PTA price surged, terminals were insufficient to follow the increase, resistance intensified, price transmission was blocked, and the market entered a narrow range of correction. Entering March, due to the poor support of the PTA processing range, some factories concentrated on maintenance, while the demand for downstream polyester gradually improved, and the supply and demand of PTA entered the stage of gradual destocking. Then the basis difference and absolute overage were reflected, and basically maintained In a fluctuating upward trend, as of June 27, the spot price of PTA in East China closed at 5,433 yuan/ton, the 09 contract closed at 5,360 yuan/ton, and the spot price difference on 09 was 35 yuan/ton.
Continuous destocking from March to the present: 2021 From the beginning of the year to mid-February, the processing interval was good. The overall average operating load of domestic PTA remained at a high level of more than 85%. Product supply pressure was relatively high. Entering mid-February, as the processing interval continued to be compressed, domestic PTA manufacturers routinely Maintenance plans have increased, and the demand for downstream polyester is good. Exports have reached the highest level in history. Supply and demand continue to be destocked in stages. As of July 27, domestic social inventory is 3.5335 million tons. Daily supply and demand are destocking slightly, and it is expected to remain destocked in August. The overall social inventory of PTA at the end of the month is expected to be around 3.3 million tons, which is still good for the market on the supply side.
Comprehensive expectations: The current demand for polyester is relatively stable, the typhoon is still affecting shipping schedules, the PTA market supply is still tight, the basis is stable, and the short-term PTA supply and demand There are no major contradictions in the face, which boosts the bullish market mentality. However, considering that the processing fee has recently returned to the high level of the year and the buying momentum has weakened after a sharp increase, it may have restrained market confidence. In addition, the current crude oil price is slightly weak and the stock market has continued to plummet. Based on The financial attributes of PTA are constrained by this negative impact. It is expected that the PTA futures market may adjust after a sharp rise. However, the adjustment is expected to be limited due to the positive supply and demand support. We continue to pay attention to the 9-1 positive arbitrage opportunity. The idea of going long on dips in the 09 contract has not changed.
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