On April 1, OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries held a ministerial meeting via video link. The meeting statement said that member countries have agreed on the level of increased production in May, June and July this year, and will continue to adhere to the mechanism of holding monthly ministerial meetings to assess market conditions and decide on the scale of production adjustments next month. The adjustment range shall not exceed 500,000 barrels per day.
The statement said that world energy markets have improved with the support of major economies’ new crown vaccination plans and stimulus packages, but OPEC and non-OPEC Producers note that the volatility seen in recent weeks requires members to continue to take a cautious approach in monitoring market developments.
According to the calculation of each country’s production quota published by OPEC’s official website, OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries will increase their production by 350,000 barrels per day in May. The increase in June will be the same as in May. Production increased by 441,000 barrels per day in July.
Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said that day that in the face of the economic impact of the epidemic, the recovery of global oil demand is uneven. Until there are indisputable signs of economic recovery, OPEC and non-OPEC producers should remain cautious when deciding on future oil production levels.
Affected by this news, international oil prices went on a “roller coaster” during the day. When the news of OPEC+’s “restrained” production increase was first announced, oil prices were suppressed. Later, the market realized that future crude oil demand would improve enough to offset this small increase in production, and international oil prices eventually rose sharply. As of early morning closing this morning, the price of light crude oil futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $2.29 to close at $61.45/barrel, an increase of 3.87%; the price of London Brent crude oil futures for June delivery rose by $2.12. , closing at US$64.86/barrel, an increase of 3.38%.
It is worth mentioning that U.S. cotton fell nearly 4% overnight. The USDA March report shows that the intended planting area of U.S. cotton in 2021 is 12 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of less than 1%, the upland cotton area is 11.9 million acres, a slight increase year-on-year, and the Pima cotton area is 142,000 acres, a year-on-year decrease of 30%.
What impact will the Fed’s monetary policy adjustments have on China’s financial market? The latest statement from the central bank is here
On April 1, the State Council Information Office held a press conference. Sun Guofeng, director of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Department, said that whether the Fed launched large-scale monetary stimulus measures last year or the Fed adjusts monetary and monetary policies in the future, the impact on China’s financial market will be relatively small. The positive effect of China’s implementation of normal monetary policy is emerging. The key to the next step is to run its own affairs well, and the monetary policy must be stable.
In addition, Sun Guofeng said that the central bank has noticed the recent upward trend in U.S. bond yields. After May last year, the central bank’s monetary policy returned to normalization and did not engage in flooding stimulus. . The Fed’s policy adjustments will have little impact on my country. In fact, despite the recent sharp fluctuations in the financial markets of emerging economies, my country’s financial markets have been operating smoothly, indicating that the effects of my country’s normal monetary policy are emerging. my country will continue to cherish normal monetary policy space, maintain a leading position in macro policy, and is happy to see the efforts of central banks around the world to return monetary policy to normal.
Agricultural product futures rose strongly, with rapeseed meal rising by the limit
On Thursday, overnight U.S. agricultural product futures prices Driven by the strong daily limit, the agricultural products sector in the domestic futures market generally rose, with rapeseed meal rising by the daily limit; black coking coal fell by 4.01%, and coke rose by 2.45%; the energy and chemical sector had mixed gains and losses; in the non-ferrous sector, zinc fell by 1.06%, and aluminum rose by 1.25%; Stock index futures were in the red across the board.
The trading volume of commodity futures decreased slightly, and the trading activity of the futures market decreased. Funds flowed into the metal sector and outflowed from the energy and chemical and agricultural products sectors. The total outflow of commodity futures funds was approximately 1.613 billion yuan. Funds flowed out of the financial futures sector, with an outflow amount of approximately 454 million yuan, and financial futures trading activity increased slightly.
The USDA’s March planting intentions and quarterly inventory report, which has attracted much market attention, was released. Among them, the corn planting area was 91.1 million acres and the soybean planting area was 87.6 million acres, both significantly lower than Market expectations: corn stocks are 7.7 billion bushels, the lowest in six years, and soybean stocks are 1.56 billion bushels, the lowest in five years. Stimulated by bullish sentiment, the main contracts for US soybeans, US soybean oil, US soybean meal, and US corn all hit their daily limits, which directly reversed the decline of domestic agricultural products. As of the afternoon close of April 1, rapeseed meal had reached its daily limit, soybean meal closed up 4.11%, and palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil all rose by more than 3%.
CITIC Futures agricultural product analyst Liu Gaochao believes that the short-term USDA planting intention report may continue to support the strong performance of U.S. soybeans and continuous meal, but investors need to pay attention to , under the combined influence of factors such as uncertainty in the planting area of U.S. soybeans, the acceleration of the launch of Brazilian soybeans, the decline in U.S. soybean exports in the new season, and the reduction in domestic soybean meal demand, the foundation for the continued upward trend of U.S. soybeans and continuous meal is not solid. </p
