In recent days, the main contract of Zheng cotton has continued to consolidate at 14,500-15,000 yuan/ton. Although it once fell to 14,285 yuan/ton on March 26, it was quickly pulled back above 14,500 yuan/ton by funds. Regarding the trend of Zheng cotton in the first and middle of April, there are still large differences among cotton-related enterprises and investment institutions. One view is that it is relatively difficult for the CF2105 contract to effectively reach 15,000 yuan/ton. The current market and spot market are still in a short atmosphere. ; Another view is that Zheng cotton has made a correction and bottomed out in late March and is close to the bottom. The market will continue to oscillate upward with the support of 14,500 yuan/ton. The center of gravity of the Zheng cotton CF2109 contract from April to May is expected to move up to 15,500-16,500 yuan/ton. tons, but there are insufficient conditions to test 17,000 yuan/ton in the short term.
From the survey of cotton processing enterprises, traders and cotton textile mills in Xinjiang, Shandong, Henan and other places, it is believed that cotton has basically ended its bottoming and is about to enter an oscillating upward channel. ‘s clearly had the upper hand. The author’s view is somewhat conservative, and I judge that the price around 16,000 yuan/ton may be the “watershed” between the long and short sides. Although the negative news has gradually weakened or even disappeared, Zheng cotton’s stabilization and rebound are still subject to many constraints.
Why will Zheng Cotton’s main contract consolidate upwards on the back of 14,500 yuan/ton? The author summarizes the following points: First, some international clothing brands “touch porcelain” Xinjiang cotton, causing the market to react too much, and the market needs to be repaired; second, the Federal Reserve’s continued low interest rates and ultra-loose monetary policies in many countries around the world have led to increasingly prominent inflationary pressures , the driving effect of imported inflationary pressure and rising agricultural products, energy and chemicals on Zheng Cotton cannot be underestimated; thirdly, the downstream cotton textile enterprises, middlemen and other cotton and cotton yarn inventory pressures are not great, and order receipt, order arrangement and delivery are still in order As the market progresses, the stabilization and rebound of raw material prices such as cotton, polyester staple fiber, and viscose staple fiber is the key to the recovery of consumer terminal confidence; fourth, the central bank’s monetary policy will not “turn” and will continue to release liquidity to support real enterprises. The Monetary Policy Committee of the People’s Bank of China proposed at the regular meeting of the first quarter of 2021 to further give full play to the leading role of re-lending, re-discounting and direct monetary policy tools in the real economy, and continue the inclusive policy of deferred principal and interest repayment of loans to small and micro enterprises and credit loans. Support plans to increase re-loans and re-discounts to support inclusive finance. </p
