After the Spring Festival, affected by the cold wave in North America, the center of gravity of international oil prices rose sharply, and the polyester industry chain quickly set off a sharp rise in the market. However, the good times did not last long. With the correction of high crude oil prices and the weakening of the macro atmosphere, the polyester market took a sharp turn. , PTA futures also fell under pressure. The 2105 contract oscillated from a high of 4,788 yuan/ton at the end of February to 4,356 yuan/ton on March 23, a decrease of 9.02%. The core logic of this wave of first rising and then suppressing the market is mainly Cost-side driven. The author believes that the current supply and demand side is intertwined with long and short positions, and the cost-driven logic is still valid when the processing gap is operating at a low level.
There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market
In terms of crude oil, the recent recurrence of the epidemic in Europe has increased market concerns about oil market demand. Coupled with the strength of the US dollar, international oil prices have fallen under pressure. , but short-term active production cuts and long-term passive tightening on the supply side still support crude oil prices, and short-term international oil prices are expected to be mainly consolidated in a wide range. In the PX link, due to the recovery of early profits, the willingness of factories to start operations has increased. While multiple sets of downstream PTA devices are undergoing maintenance, the PX supply and demand side has gradually turned into a surplus situation. The current market is unclear about the future direction, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is relatively strong. In the short term, the cost side will oscillate widely. Lord. PXN maintains a range of US$220-270/ton before clear positive news emerges.
Intensified maintenance of equipment
According to the rules of previous years, the second quarter of each year is the centralized maintenance period for PTA equipment. The maintenance time is generally two or three weeks, but if The corporate benefits are considerable, but some manufacturers tend to postpone maintenance. In March this year, ACP reached US$870/ton, which was much higher than the ACP level of US$705/ton in February. In addition, the price of acetic acid, another raw material for PTA, has also performed strongly, hitting a ten-year high. The cost pressure on PTA factories has increased significantly. The spot processing difference continues to hover around 300 yuan/ton. The extremely low processing difference level has caused most devices to be in the red. state. Since mid-March, news about equipment maintenance in the PTA market has been frequent. Among them, large-line equipment from large manufacturers such as Hengli and Yisheng have announced annual maintenance plans. The equipment maintenance plan for the second quarter has gradually become clear. Specifically, the planned maintenance capacity of PTA equipment from March to June reached 18.35 million tons. The average maintenance time is calculated as 15 days, which translates into a production loss of around 750,000 tons. In addition to equipment maintenance, two major leading manufacturers have recently announced that contract supply in April has been reduced to 70% and 80% of the original volume respectively.
In terms of inventory, due to the maintenance of multiple sets of equipment on the supply side, PTA social inventory has dropped to 4.111 million tons this week, a decrease of 130,800 tons from the previous value, but the absolute level is still at a historical high, and there will still be inventory during the year There are plans to put several new units into production, and it is expected that large amounts of inventory will become the norm in the future. Recently, against the background of strengthening basis, the cancellation of warehouse receipts has increased, and the outflow of futures stocks has accelerated. As of March 23, the number of PTA warehouse receipts was 351,900, equivalent to 1.7595 million tons of PTA, a decrease of 223,000 tons from the previous high of 1.9825 million tons, and the supply of goods available on the market has increased.
The accumulation of polyester varieties has intensified
The load of the polyester link has increased smoothly after the holiday. As of March 19, the load of the polyester factory was at 94.2%. Far higher than the level of the same period in previous years. From the inventory point of view, the bottom-up replenishment action in the industrial chain after the holiday has driven various polyester varieties to be quickly destocked. However, due to sufficient raw material stocking downstream of polyester, purchasing actions have cooled down. In the past two weeks, polyester yarn production and sales in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have hovered around 20% to 30% most of the time. Against the background of weakening polyester production and sales, polyester stocks turned upward. Specifically, the increase in polyester POY inventory has been the most obvious. As of March 19, the POY inventory index was at 14.5 days, an increase of 5.1 days month-on-month. FDY and DTY inventories were both more than 20 days, while polyester short inventory was still negative, but Compared with the most severe oversold period, it has eased a lot. The current short fiber inventory is around -0.9 days. It can be said that the inventory pressure in the polyester segment has appeared.
Currently, terminal raw material inventories are at a relatively high level and can generally be used until mid-to-late April. However, raw material inventories will be digested sooner or later, so the market generally has expectations for new terminal orders in April.
Taken together, the current fundamentals of PTA are intertwined with long and short positions. Although the supply side has contracted, the pressure on the demand side is gradually emerging. Against the background of low processing differences, the absolute price of short-term PTA is still guided by the cost end, with focus on the downstream replenishment situation in mid-to-late April. </p
