In recent times, especially last weekend, the United States and Europe have been taking continuous actions against the export of Chinese cotton and downstream products. Some international brands and international institutions have excluded Xinjiang cotton and its products from their commercial activities based on lies and false information. , Biden’s speech at the first press conference, and events such as China-EU mutual sanctions, all reflect the joint checks and balances between the United States and Europe against China. In this context, what changes will occur to Xinjiang cotton and even China’s cotton market structure? Will Xinjiang cotton farmers’ planting intentions change in the new season? How will Xinjiang cotton respond to the new market situation in the future? This is an issue of great concern to everyone.
An astonishing change, the output increased by a thousand times
“In 1949, Xinjiang’s cotton output was only 5,100 tons, accounting for 1.1% of the country’s total output that year. Subsequently, especially after 1990, boosted by a series of factors such as China’s accelerated industrialization, technological progress, and the government’s promotion of cotton production transfer, the development of Xinjiang’s cotton industry accelerated rapidly. By 1998 In 2020, Xinjiang’s cotton output reached 1.4 million tons, accounting for 31% of the country’s total output that year, exceeding 30% for the first time. By 2020, Xinjiang’s cotton output was close to 5.2 million tons, accounting for 87% of the country’s total output that year, of which 2012-2020 Xinjiang’s cotton output has increased by 33 percentage points in the country’s total output.” Zhang Guoqiang, general manager of Heze Hongyi Industrial Development Co., Ltd., has been deeply involved in the cotton industry for more than 20 years and is deeply aware of the rapid changes in China’s cotton industry. He told Futures Daily The reporter said that Xinjiang’s cotton industry has experienced a development process from scratch, from “original farming model” to “industrial farming model”. Today, the cotton industry has become the core industry of Xinjiang’s economic development. As my country’s main cotton-producing area, Xinjiang’s total cotton output, unit yield, planting area, and commodity allocation volume have ranked first in the country for 26 consecutive years. More than half of the farmers in Xinjiang are engaged in cotton production, and the cotton-producing population is about 7 million. More than 30% of farmers’ per capita net income comes from cotton cultivation, and even 60% to 70% of farmers’ income in some areas comes from cotton. At the same time, cotton yarn has also become an important business card for the development of Xinjiang’s industrial economy, and the textile and garment industry has become a pillar industry for the local transformation of advantageous resources.
As senior flower pickers, several cotton farmers from Weishi County, Henan Province who are now mainly engaged in cotton cultivation in Xinjiang said that in previous years, during the cotton picking season in Xinjiang, Henan and other provinces The railway department needs to continuously run special trains for a long period of time to transport flower pickers from the mainland to Xinjiang so that mature cotton can be picked in time. Nowadays, large and medium-sized “egg laying machines” can be found in various cotton-producing areas in Xinjiang. It can be said that H&M has ulterior motives when it comes to porcelain cotton, and its “behind-the-scenes driving force” BCI talks nonsense.
According to Zhang Guoqiang, cotton production in Xinjiang has long been highly mechanized. Data released by relevant agencies in 2020 show that the mechanical picking rate of cotton in Xinjiang has reached 69.83%, of which 95% of cotton in northern Xinjiang is picked mechanically. Even during the busiest picking season, the local area does not need a large number of flower pickers.
Since the launch of cotton futures, reporters have been tracking and investigating Xinjiang’s cotton industry for more than 10 consecutive years and have witnessed the earth-shaking changes that have taken place in Xinjiang’s cotton industry. Whenever reporters see farmers from the local Uyghur and Han ethnic groups liberated from the heavy physical labor of the past and running large-scale cotton fields and ginning factories while opening restaurants and farmhouses with ethnic characteristics, they will be surprised. I deeply feel that in this beautiful place of Xinjiang, China’s cotton industry and Xinjiang’s economy are rising with an unstoppable trend.
Zhang Xiangfeng, who has been promoting land transfer and large-scale cotton planting in Shawan County, Xinjiang for many years, once told reporters that one year, a 3,800-acre cotton field in his company was worth 400 acres. It took Mingshi flower workers nearly two months to pick, but now, it only takes three days to use machinery to pick. At present, cotton planting, field management, and picking have all achieved intensification, scale, and mechanization. On average, one worker can complete more than 150 acres of planting, watering, spraying, and picking, which greatly reduces production costs. At the same time, in order to improve the quality of cotton, many areas in Xinjiang have realized that seed cotton does not fall to the ground after picking and is transported directly to the ginning factory, effectively eliminating “three silks”.
It is understood that compared with hand-picked cotton, the cost of machine-picked cotton is lower. In addition, the varieties are more uniform and the boll opening time is more consistent. The overall quality of machine-picked cotton is better. Convenient for mass sales and subsequent processing. The market expects that with the in-depth advancement of the “five modernizations” of Xinjiang’s cotton industry, namely, improved varieties, large-scale planting, mechanized picking, standardization of quality, and futures sales, local textile production capacity will be further expanded, and Xinjiang is expected to produce more “Chinese cotton” in the future. Good cotton”.
The reporter also learned during the investigation that in recent years, from cotton field selection to cotton seed breeding, from mulching film purchase to defoliant spraying, from flowering peach fertilization to cotton peach wadding management , from seed cotton picking to transportation and processing, there is a set of standard and standardized operating procedures, especially for cotton yield and quality, and more scientific and practical technology and management procedures. As for seed cotton processing and lint sales, as well as application There are also many innovations in futures instrument financing, etc. At the same time, the transfer of the domestic cotton industry and textile industry, and the increasingly profound influence of Zheng cotton and Zheng yarn futures have injected vitality into the Xinjiang cotton market.
In the new era and new atmosphere, quality improvement and cost reduction are significant
Xinjiang Yan FamilyAn exhaustive reminder. From the perspective of supply and demand, the tight supply situation is gradually emerging. On the supply side, major cotton producing countries are currently entering the sowing season, and falling prices have weakened the possibility of new global marginal supplies. For example, in Texas, USA, and Mato Grosso, Brazil, the substitution of corn for cotton may further deepen. On the demand side, after Sino-US trade friction and the new coronavirus epidemic, the global textile and apparel industry chain has been forced to destock, while a significant improvement in consumption still needs to be observed.
“As of now, the purchase and processing of domestic seed cotton in 2020/2021 has basically ended, and lint cotton sales are faster than in previous years.” Zhang Guoqiang told the Futures Daily reporter that as of March 19, lint cotton sales nationwide The sales rate in Xinjiang was 79.8%, an increase of 22.1 percentage points year-on-year and 17.3 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. The sales rate in Xinjiang was 79.3%.
Zhang Guoqiang said that the current total domestic cotton inventory is low, and 2 million tons need to be imported every year to make up for the gap. If the Xinjiang cotton crisis continues to ferment, the worst result will be to affect 1.5 million to 1.8 million tons of Chinese cotton and product exports. In this case, our country can regulate the market by reducing imports and increasing reserves. It is expected that the impact of the Xinjiang cotton crisis will continue for some time in the future, and market sentiment will continue to fluctuate. It is recommended that investors and cotton industry companies observe calmly and pay attention to preventing and controlling risks. </p
