“The bustle of the world is all for profit; the hustle and bustle of the world is for profit.” The same is true for commodities. Buying low and selling high is an eternal truth. At present, Zheng cotton has plummeted, from a high of 17,000 yuan/ton to around 15,300 yuan/ton, a drop of about 10%. When Zheng Cotton was making great progress, the market once believed that the high point would reach 20,000 yuan/ton. Once it became discouraged, the market was full of bearish voices.
Of course, there are complex reasons for Zheng Cotton’s correction. First of all, there have been changes in macro factors. Crude oil is the mother of commodities, which affects the whole body. Its rise and fall changes have an impact on global commodities. Significant influence. This round of crude oil has been affected by the vaccine incident and has experienced wide fluctuations, which is obviously negative for commodities.
Recently, emerging countries around the world have begun to raise interest rates. Although economically developed countries insist on maintaining low interest rates, it is clear that the impacted emerging countries cannot continue to withstand the commodity inflation and inflation caused by currency depletion. The currency depreciated. In this regard, China has repeatedly emphasized that it must implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and that the future transition must be slow and not hasty. Such events or news have a great impact on the market. The interest rate hike is like a “grey rhinoceros”. It has been waiting for a certain time point. It is not clear when it will come, but its appearance is certain.
The Sino-US talks last weekend were full of gunpowder and had a great impact on cotton. In 2018, Sino-US economic and trade relations cooled down, and cotton prices began a two-year bear market. This shows how important the Sino-US relations are to cotton. Although the talks have ended, judging from the released news, the relationship between the two countries will still go through many tests, and cotton prices will continue to be under pressure.
Judging from the above situation, the rise in cotton prices seems to be coming to an end. The author believes that the factors affecting the general trend of cotton prices have not changed, and cotton still has upward momentum. From 2020, cotton prices first fell and then rose. The main reason was caused by the new crown epidemic and global currency depletion. At present, with the support of vaccines, future economic recovery is a deterministic event, and the only uncertainty is whether it will happen sooner or later. As the anchor of global commodity pricing, U.S. bond interest rates have always attracted global attention. U.S. bond yields continue to hit new highs, indicating that the market has begun to worry. However, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly stated that it supports economic development and increases employment rates and does not care if the inflation rate exceeds 2% for a period of time. The author believes that the epidemic is still full of uncertainties, and countries will never take the risk of raising interest rates. Judging from historical experience, the commodity market will see a prosperous period of 1-2 years after the crisis. At this time, it has just been one year since the new crown epidemic, and it is still far from the economic recovery. Full recovery is still a long way off.
In short, the commodity market opportunities in 2021 will most likely not be higher than last year, but there is still some room for improvement. </p
