Recently, the decline in polyester chain varieties has intensified. PTA and staple fiber fell by the limit on the 10th. Yesterday, ethylene glycol was the largest decliner. It maintained a decline of more than 3% during the day and failed to close above the 20-day moving average, closing at 5276 yuan. . The PTA and staple fiber tail plates turned red.
Recently, the macro liquidity premium has shrunk, U.S. bond yields have risen, oil prices have softened, and the domestic stock market has plummeted, which has impacted the overall commodity atmosphere. Against this background, varieties with excessive early gains are facing correction pressure. Regarding the downstream demand for polyester varieties, neither the terminal nor the recent polyester production and sales performance can provide sufficient support, so it is called the reason for short selling. As the polyester equipment for early maintenance has been opened one after another, the polyester load has increased rapidly and has now risen to about 93%. The start-up of textured weaving has basically returned to the level before the Spring Festival, gray fabric inventory continues to decline, and the improvement in polyester demand also provides support for raw material prices. However, as the price of polyester products continues to rise, the resistance of terminal weaving has become increasingly apparent. The enthusiasm of terminals to replenish their positions has declined, and polyester production and sales have remained sluggish for many days. In terms of terminals, due to the large increase in upstream raw materials and high valuations, while the increase in terminal gray fabrics is smaller, the profits of gray fabrics have been compressed, and the early increase was entirely driven by macroeconomics and expectations. The terminal orders are actually a window period and cannot be verified. Authenticity, the current order has not yet reached the time of large-scale volume, so it is difficult to provide substantial support.
As for EG itself, the previous spot transaction price can already cover the cost of all process equipment. Coupled with the poor demand for EO in winter, some companies have switched to EG production. Overall, the domestic ethylene glycol operating load has increased to around 68%. Recently, with the restart of SIA Energy and Tongliao Gold and Coal, the overall domestic supply pressure has been eased. The main reason is the recent news that Zhejiang Petrochemical will start the operation ahead of schedule. There are rumors that MEG will be released this month. However, it has been verified that it is not such an exaggeration. However, the market still fell sharply. The main reason is that market expectations have changed due to this impact. However, two larger new ethylene glycol devices in the future market are expected to be put into production in April and May.
PTA logic focuses on cost changes, and oil prices directly guide the trend direction of raw material PX. As of March 10, the PX processing fee dropped to US$230/ton, and the PTA spot processing fee fell below 300 yuan/ton. Zhu Lihang, an analyst at Zheshang Futures, said that the current profits of all production links of PTA are compressed at a low level, making PTA highly correlated with crude oil. It is most affected by oil price fluctuations. Once oil prices correct, PTA will be the first to bear the brunt of the decline. . In addition, the current PTA processing fee is at a low level. We should pay attention to whether there are more maintenance incidents in many PTA manufacturers in March. </p
