Yesterday, the General Administration of Customs announced the total import and export value of my country’s goods trade from January to February 2021, of which exports of textiles and clothing from January to February were US$46.1883 billion, and imported edible vegetable oil (excluding palm stearin) increased by 48.4% year-on-year. %, and imported grain (excluding soybeans) increased by 241.7% year-on-year, which attracted special attention from the market.
“I think cotton prices will rise sharply at today’s opening, and may even reach the daily limit. At the same time, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil may have to take a break after long-term rises. Although soybean imports are lower than expected. For the prices of bulk commodities such as soybean meal, corn and live pigs, huge changes in import and export data will definitely affect the market supply and demand, and prices will naturally fluctuate significantly.” A business manager of a futures investment institution in Shanghai told Futures Daily reporter, after the heavy import and export data is released, the market will conduct an all-round analysis. Investors have different perspectives, and the conclusions they draw will definitely be quite different. Market prices will achieve the “great cause of unification” through large fluctuations amidst the differences. “. How will cotton perform at today’s opening?
Market participants: Heavy import and export data will cause some commodity prices to change from “quantitative change” to “qualitative change”
According to the reporter’s understanding, despite the impact of the long Spring Festival holiday and the frequent impact of the new coronavirus epidemic abroad, my country’s import and export of goods trade was in good shape in the first two months of this year, with the biggest bright spot appearing in textiles and clothing. From January to February 2021, my country’s total exports of textiles and clothing reached US$46.1883 billion. Among them, my country’s exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products from January to February 2021 were US$22.1341 billion, a year-on-year increase of 60.8% (from January to February 2020, my country’s exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were US$13.7622 billion); from January to February 2021, China’s exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were US$13.7622 billion. In February, my country’s exports of clothing and clothing accessories were US$24.0542 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50.0% (from January to February 2020, my country’s exports of clothing and clothing accessories were US$16.0341 billion).
At the same time, in the face of strong domestic demand growth, especially the rising prices of oils and pork, my country’s edible vegetable oil and grain imports have increased significantly, and domestic related commodities have increased significantly. The market supply and demand relationship may change as a result. Among them, my country imported 2.04 million tons of edible vegetable oil (excluding palm stearin) from January to February 2021, a significant increase of 670,000 tons (48.4%) year-on-year; from January to February 2021, my country imported 13.41 million tons of soybeans, a year-on-year decrease of 10. 10,000 tons; from January to February 2021, my country imported 11.48 million tons of grain (excluding soybeans), a significant year-on-year increase of 8.12 million tons (241.7%).
“From the second half of 2020 to the present, judging from the futures and spot price trends of domestic cotton, cotton yarn, soybeans, soybean meal, corn, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil, most of the time The prices of these commodities have been strong during the period. Only in the past 1-2 weeks, some commodity futures prices have experienced high stagflation. For example, affected by the recurrence of the African swine fever epidemic, corn and soybean meal futures prices have stagnated. Although cotton futures prices have corrected, Downstream demand is very strong, and market optimism is strong. Soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil are very ‘bullish’, and futures prices have continued to hit new highs in recent years.” Luo Yabo, an investor in agricultural product futures and spot arbitrage, told reporters that when commodity inflation expectations are strong, As the United States has just passed a $1.9 trillion economic stimulus policy, the release of China’s heavy import and export data on agricultural products and their products, especially cotton, oils and grains, will definitely add a new variable to the market. How will its impact continue? Specific analysis needs to be carried out based on the actual market conditions of different varieties. The prices of some commodities will change from “quantitative change” to “qualitative change”.
How do cotton futures work?
“Is there a shortage of cotton in the market now? There is no shortage of cotton. As long as you want to buy it, there is plenty of cotton in the market for you to choose from.” Lao Yang, a senior comprehensive cotton operator in Henan Province, told Reporter, there are no major contradictions in the domestic cotton market at present. The main driving force for the rise in cotton futures prices – strong demand has been digested. The beautiful textile and apparel production data is “past tense”. To make a good investment, you must look at the future market development trend. .
Xiao Hei, a cotton futures investor from Hangzhou, believes that the current trading objects of domestic cotton futures must be well positioned. Only when the positioning is well positioned can one understand what is being traded, and naturally You will have a good idea of whether cotton futures prices will rise or fall.
Industry insiders told reporters that there are currently many factors affecting the rise and fall of prices in the domestic and foreign cotton markets: first, the US House of Representatives passed a $1.9 trillion stimulus package; second, the yield on US debt Fluctuations are erratic; third, domestic cotton spot prices are strong and demand is strong; fourth, downstream orders are sufficient and price transmission is smooth; fifth, central reserves of cotton are in rotation to support; sixth, countries are accelerating COVID-19 vaccinations, which makes the epidemic prevention and control situation better; seventh, the epidemic prevention and control situation is improving; It is the global economic recovery that boosts the market; eighth, the US government continues to impose a ban on the import of Xinjiang cotton products, which affects the business strategies of some industrial enterprises.
According to the reporter’s understanding, the current domestic spot cotton price is at a considerable premium to the futures price, traders are actively shipping, and there is no reluctance to sell in the market. Judging from the production and operation situation of textile enterprises, the startup rate is relatively high, the profits of low-count yarns are generally low, and the profits of high-count yarns are larger. The enterprise’s inventory of raw materials and finished products is not high, and orders are relatively sufficient. In the downstream area of cotton, most enterprises have prosperous production and sales and have strong ability to withstand rising raw material prices, while a small number of enterprises have a wait-and-see attitude. In addition, the rise in international oil pricesIt has also triggered an increase in the prices of commodities such as viscose and staple fiber, which also has a strong influence on cotton prices. </p
