The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield fell to 1.41% on Monday, falling sharply from last week’s peak of 1.6%. Affected by factors such as the fall in U.S. bond yields and the benefits of vaccines and stimulus plans, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively rose sharply. As of the close early this morning, the Nasdaq rose 3.01%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.95%, and the S&P 500 Index rose 2.38%.
The market expects OPEC+ to relax restrictions on crude oil production at this week’s meeting. There is news that OPEC will increase production by 1.6 million barrels per day from April, and international oil prices closed down. . According to media reports, OPEC may increase global supply after this week’s meeting.
The survey showed that OPEC oil production fell by 870,000 barrels month-on-month to 24.89 million barrels per day in February, the first decline since June 2020. As of early morning today, WTI April crude oil futures closed down $0.86, or 1.40%, at $60.64 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures closed down $0.73, or 1.13%, at $63.69 per barrel.
It is worth mentioning that on Monday, as inventories increased, the unprecedented tight supply of Lunxi was showing signs of easing. Lunxi fell 8.6% to close at $23,460. /ton, the largest decline in the past decade.
The Federal Reserve is considering reforming the financial system, and U.S. Treasury bonds, monetary funds, etc. may be targets for action
In the early morning of March 2, Beijing time, Federal Reserve Board Governor Lael Brainard emphasized that the many weaknesses in the financial system exposed by the epidemic should be addressed through a series of new rules. “Consider taking action on markets such as money market funds, bond mutual funds, and U.S. Treasuries to prepare for the next shock.”
“The COVID-19 stress test highlights significant risks across markets Financial loopholes.” Brainard said he is considering implementing measures such as floating pricing and minimum deposits after redemptions reach a certain level to punish those who continue to redeem.
Brainard did not comment on the recent surge in U.S. bond yields, but said that the financial pressure caused by the epidemic also highlighted the liquidity of bond mutual funds and the U.S. Treasury market. risk.
A-shares had a “good start” in March, with the three major stock indexes rising sharply across the board
After last week After consecutive sharp declines, the domestic A-share market stopped falling and rebounded on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing an oscillating upward trend throughout the day. As of the close, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose 1.21% to 3,551.4 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.41% to 14,857.34 points, and the GEM Index rose 2.77% to 2,994.75 points. The two cities had a total transaction volume of 873.2 billion yuan, and the net inflow of northbound funds was 3.786 billion yuan. Cyclical sectors such as steel and non-ferrous metals once again led the gains. Although all three futures index varieties rose, the increases were at different rates. Among them, IC performed outstandingly, with the main contract rising by more than 1.5%, while IF and IH showed mediocre trends, with the main contracts rising by 0.96% and 0.33% respectively. In terms of basis, as the futures index has not performed as well as the current index, the futures discount has expanded. As of the close, the main contracts of IF, IH and IC had discounts of 27.6, 5.5 and 50.4 points respectively.
In terms of volume and energy, compared with last Friday, futures index positions fell significantly. The three varieties reduced their positions by 29,129 lots that day, and the total positions dropped to 506,253 lots. Positions of various index futures varieties declined to varying degrees, with IF positions reduced by 15,952 lots to 206,646 lots, IH positions reduced by 4,556 lots to 74,809 lots, and IC positions reduced by 8,621 lots to 224,798 lots.
Yongan Futures financial futures researcher Zhao Jing analyzed that the index futures positions fell sharply on Monday, and the main players of various varieties also showed signs of reducing their positions. Overall, the early decline was too large and the market was oversold in the short term. It is expected that the futures index will still rebound moderately in the future.
“Although the three major indexes fell sharply after the Spring Festival due to the influence of many factors, the downside space is limited in the short term. Jin Hui, senior analyst of stock index futures at Zheshang Futures, told the Futures Daily reporter that the impact of uncertainty in the external environment on the index is temporary, and investors also need to pay attention to the fact that the market will continue to differentiate. Since the recent PPI-PPIRM values have shown a downward trend, it indicates that the profitability of companies in the midstream manufacturing and downstream consumer industries will face challenges in the future. It is expected that the profitability of companies in the upstream industry will be better than that of midstream and downstream companies.
Xu Qingchen, a financial futures researcher at Haitong Futures, believes that the period of rapid rise in U.S. bond interest rates is about to pass, the global equity market is expected to get rid of panic, and the A-share market will also stabilize and return to a slow bull trend. Rhythm. On the one hand, after rising rapidly, U.S. bond interest rates have reflected expectations of U.S. economic recovery in the second half of the year. Until there is a substantial improvement in macroeconomic data, there will be limited room for interest rates to continue to rise. On the other hand, various negative impacts on U.S. debt have been concentrated since the beginning of the year, including the US$1.9 trillion economic stimulus and infrastructure plan being put on the agenda, a bull market in U.S. stocks and commodities, a sharp decline in the number of new COVID-19 cases, and vaccines. The vaccination was carried out smoothly, and virus variants have not had major negative impacts for the time being. These negative effects have been largely digested by the rise in U.S. bond rates in the past two weeks.
Xu Qingchen believes that 2021 is the first year of the “14th Five-Year Plan”, and the two sessions in March will attract a lot of market attention. Based on the statements of major ministries and commissions after the introduction of the “14th Five-Year Plan” in 2020, it is expected that the policies of the National Two Sessions will focus on five aspects: first, the economic growth model, focusing on the improvement of total factor productivity; second, industrial policy, stabilizing the proportion of manufacturing industry , and move towards both ends of the “smile curve” in the global value chain; third, in terms of science and technology, focus on increasing R&D intensity and increasing the proportion of basic science R&D; fourth, in terms of energy structure, actively implement “carbon peaking” and “carbon “Neutralization” commitment, Da.��Develop the new energy industry; fifth, in terms of state-owned enterprise reform, 2021 is a critical year for the implementation of the three-year action plan for state-owned enterprise reform, and it is expected to complete more than 70% of the three-year reform tasks. “As we enter March, the policy hot spots of the National Two Sessions are expected to improve market risk appetite in stages. The key words to summarize market opportunities are manufacturing recovery, technological independence, new energy production expansion, and the implementation of state-owned enterprise reforms.”
“The rise in domestic PPI will lead to the recovery of profits of the entire industrial enterprise. The profit-driven market in 2021 will replace the market that increased valuations in 2020, and transaction inflation has become the main line of the current market. From the performance preview of the 2020 annual report Judging from the results, the proportion of companies with promising performance forecasts has reached 57%. This proportion has returned to the pre-epidemic level, witnessing the profit-driven perspective. Some funds were withdrawn from fund group stocks, because there were no other sectors in the early market The only opportunity is to join forces, which resulted in the market differentiation during the “19th” period in the early stage.” Xu Qingchen believes that as the logic of “inflation” and “profit-driven” is gradually recognized by the market, the differentiation will reverse when new hot spots appear in the market. It also comes naturally. In the short term, this reversal will continue. After the Spring Festival, the market style characteristics can be summarized as procyclical industries, low PEG and domestic capital pricing, including second-tier blue-chip manufacturing assets represented by CSI 500. In the first half of 2021, the earnings growth rate of the CSI 500 is expected to be more elastic than the SSE 50, with a lower valuation quantile and a more prominent relative income value. After the Spring Festival, the rising proportion of individual stocks in the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes has begun to be higher than that of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indexes. Continue to pay attention to the strategy of long IC and short IH.
Many varieties of chemical non-ferrous metals dropped significantly
The sharp drop in international oil prices last Friday dragged down the early stage Strong staple fiber, No. 20 rubber, Shanghai rubber, asphalt and other related chemicals fell across the board. Among them, the main contract of short fiber futures fell 4.42% on Monday to close at 8046 yuan/ton.
According to Wang Qingqing, an energy and chemical analyst at Nanhua Futures, workers have returned to factories one after another after the holiday. Short fiber downstream yarn companies are still in the resumption stage. The operating rate of pure polyester yarn has rebounded rapidly. Most companies Orders are scheduled to mid-to-late March, and pure polyester yarn cash flow is performing well. Stimulated by the traditional peak seasons of “Gold, Three, and Silver”, there is still support on the demand side. On the supply side, prices continued to rebound after the holiday. The production and sales of short fiber factories have been booming. Oversold volumes have further increased. The current negative inventory situation of short fiber factories has further intensified. Fundamental support is still strong before May.
Peng Jiebin, an analyst at Huarong Rongda Futures, believes that the current factors that are bullish for short fiber prices are mainly production and sales volume and low inventory. As of last week, polyester staple fiber stocks were -17.3 days. “Raw material prices continue to be strong, there is strong support on the cost side, the fundamentals are still good in the short term, and short fiber may maintain a strong trend in the medium and long term.”
For Monday’s styrene futures Dai Gaoce, an energy and chemical analyst at Nanhua Futures, believes that the sharp correction in prices has slightly eased the pressure on short-term supply after the delivery of styrene at the end of the month. However, the main reason for the early surge is the supply-side support brought about by the imbalance of internal and external trade flows. . According to him, supply in Europe and the United States is tight in the short term, and demand has recovered quickly after the epidemic is under control. This has caused styrene prices in Europe and the United States to be extremely strong, import and export prices continue to be upside down, my country’s import window has been closed, and there has even been a relatively obvious reverse export situation. It is expected that 3 Monthly exports may reach 80,000 tons.
“Under the current import and export pattern, although domestic styrene processing profits are relatively good, the increase in operating load cannot make up for the loss of imports. The accumulation of port inventory is slow and is expected to be in March. Domestic equipment will be put into operation at the end of the month and overseas supply will pick up, which will gradually bring new accumulation pressure.” Dai Gaoce believes that the problem of import and export inversion will still provide support to the market, but some negative feedback from the downstream has occurred at the upper level, and prices may rise at a high level in the short term. High oscillations are the main trend, and investors can pay attention to the peaking opportunities that may be brought about by the rebound in supply in late March.
In terms of other products, coking coal and coke continued to fall weakly, closing down 5.53% and 3.18% respectively; copper, lead, nickel, and aluminum also fell across the board, with all declines of 2 %above.
“After the post-holiday replenishment of downstream stocks, most downstream coke companies are not in a hurry to arrange raw coal purchases, and mainstream coal mines in some areas have not shipped as much as earlier, so the spot price of coke has fallen.” Everbright Futures analyst Wang Xintong told a reporter from Futures Daily that domestic production has basically resumed. As for imports, customs clearance of Mongolian coal recovered quickly after the holiday. The average daily customs clearance at Ganqimaodu Port increased from last week and has basically returned to pre-holiday levels. . From the inventory point of view, downstream consumption of inventories is dominated by inventories, and coking coal inventories of coking plants and steel plants have declined. Port coking coal inventories were basically stable. Coal mine inventories increased slightly due to reduced post-holiday replenishment. “In the short term, the supply of coking coal is increasing, inventories in all links are at high levels, demand has not yet started, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, so prices may maintain weak oscillations in the short term.
According to Wang Xintong, the second round of increases and decreases in coke spot prices has basically been implemented, and steel mills in some areas are preparing for a third round of increases and decreases. From a supply perspective, as some coking companies resume production Work has resumed, and newly built production capacity has been put on the market one after another. The start-up of coke enterprises has increased month-on-month, and coke supply has gradually increased. However, the port coke market is still relatively deserted. In terms of inventory, with the recovery of post-holiday transportation, steel mills have gradually replenished their inventories, and coke plant coke inventories have eased. The coke inventory of steel mills has increased. Wang Xintong believes that in the short term, due to the impact of less than expected demand recovery and low coking profits, coke prices may continue to decline.
��Coke prices may continue to fall due to the impact of less-than-expected recovery and lower coking profits. </p
