From February 19th to February 28th, CCTV Finance has launched 10 consecutive issues of “Top Ten Top Economists, Looking at the Macro Trends in the Year of the Ox” A series of new media live programs. Detailed explanation of the international and domestic macroeconomic situation in 2021. Zhu Ning, a well-known economist and deputy dean of Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, visited and explained in detail how to prevent financial risks.
Zhu Ning: If the premise of flooding of liquidity changes, the market will adjust!
In the entire global capital market, there is and is only one factor that truly determines the “money bags” of all investors, which is how loose the Federal Reserve’s gates, valves, and liquidity are. When, when will it be reversed. When this prerequisite changes, the market will adjust.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said two days ago that in view of the turmoil in the market, the special approval will clarify that the current loose monetary policy will be maintained until the end of 2021. This sounds about ninety months away, but the stock market is always an anticipatory and forward-looking market. If you foresee a shift or withdrawal of loose monetary policy at the end of 2021, smart investors will definitely not wait until then. There will be moves, and the expected behavior will lead to a market reaction this fall. From this point of view, the liquidity may turn to the end of this year, but the market reaction will occur earlier.
Zhu Ning: Investment is a highly personal activity and should vary from person to person!
Perhaps every investor should ask himself, how long is my investment range, how high is my investment goal, and how strong is our risk tolerance. Investment is a highly personalized activity, and everyone has their own goals to pursue and the risk fluctuations they can tolerate. If you are an investor with a strong risk appetite and will make bets in the next 10 or 20 years, this may be the time to enter the market at low prices and absorb chips; if you are an investor with a relatively low risk appetite, When considering allocation, we may consider industries that are not as glamorous as these, but are still highly correlated with economic growth, such as resource companies, public utility companies, and high-end manufacturing companies.
Zhu Ning: This year is a good time to promote the internationalization of the RMB!
Many people ask, will the exchange rate break 6 this year? I personally would not make a bold prediction here. The rapid appreciation of the RMB has an impact on the economy and puts great pressure on foreign trade export companies. I think the RMB exchange rate will not break 6 this year. In fact, this is a very good opportunity and time to promote the internationalization of the RMB and promote the reform and process of market-oriented RMB exchange rate. When the market is relatively optimistic or stable about the RMB, it is better to promote the RMB’s global clearing and payment capabilities, or we can let the market determine the RMB exchange rate mechanism and further promote the internationalization of the RMB and the exchange rate determination mechanism. This is a very good time. .
Previously, at the end of December 2020, Standard Chartered Bank issued a prediction-eight major “black swan” events in 2021, calling them “unlikely to occur, and once they occur, they will subvert the financial industry.” Market”, the first of which is Biden’s resignation, and the other is that the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has risen above 6.0.
What does “breaking 6” mean? This is equivalent to saying that the RMB will appreciate by nearly 8.8% again this year! Throughout 2020, the cumulative appreciation rate of the RMB throughout the year was close to 7%, and the highest appreciation rate since May has exceeded 9%.
Standard Chartered Bank lists it as one of the eight “black swans” in 2021. Obviously this is an unlikely situation.
So how will the RMB exchange rate go in 2021?
Economist
Different opinions
Director of China Chief Economist Forum (CCEF), Bank of China Securities Global Chief Economist Guan Tao believes that the RMB has accumulated a certain amount of gains in 2020. If there is no negative news in the next month or so, there is a high probability that the RMB exchange rate will rise with inertia in early 2021. However, there are uncertainties in economic recovery. The strengthening of the RMB in the second half of 2020 is because China’s economy took the lead in recovering. If the global economy gradually recovers in 2021, it means that China’s leading advantage in economic recovery will narrow.
Guan Tao pointed out that at the same time, if the domestic economy falls below normal levels in 2021, it may increase the pressure on the RMB exchange rate adjustment. In view of the many internal and external uncertainties and unstable factors in the future, it is too early to say anything about the new cycle of the RMB exchange rate.
Liu Ligang, chief economist of Citibank China, believes that more overseas capital will flow into the country this year, prompting further appreciation of the RMB. “We still believe that the RMB exchange rate can reach 6.3 by around June this year. Now it seems that this expectation should be more conservative, because the RMB has already exceeded 6.4. By the end of the year, we think the RMB will further appreciate to 6. There is even a possibility of breaking 6.”
Wang Dan, chief economist of Hang Seng China, said that there is a high probability that the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will rise above 6 in the first quarter. Wang Dan explained that the trade surplus between China and the United States remains high, and China’s export momentum is still strong and even stronger; at the same time, compared with productivity, China’s technological progress and industrial chain upgrades are rapid, so the RMB faces strong appreciation pressure.
Shen Jianguang, chief economist of JD Technology and director of the research institute, believes that 20, but there are still many factors of instability and uncertainty, and the derivative risks caused by the impact of the epidemic cannot be ignored. Turbulence in the international financial market may still exist, which may increase the volatility of China’s foreign exchange market.
It is worth noting that the Foreign Exchange Administration’s investigation revealed that some export companies make settlements in non-U.S. currencies such as RMB or Euro. The appreciation of RMB against the U.S. dollar will have a limited impact on such companies.
In addition, the hedging awareness of enterprises has increased in 2020, and the hedging ratio is 17.1%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points from 2019. Some companies attach great importance to exchange rate risks and have taken many active and effective measures, such as adding clauses on exchange rate fluctuations and re-pricing in commercial contracts, and using multiple currencies for settlement to diversify the risk of exchange rate fluctuations; All exchange rate risk exposures have very clear management strategies.
President of the European Central Bank: The Eurozone economy may begin to recover from mid-2021
February 7th, according to Reuters, on the 6th local time, the President of the European Central Bank Lagarde said that the euro zone economy affected by the new crown epidemic may begin to recover from mid-2021.
According to reports, in order to prevent and control the epidemic, euro zone countries have adopted varying degrees of blockade measures, which led to the euro zone economy shrinking in the last quarter. At the same time, as most service industries are still in a “closed door” state, the euro zone economy is still very likely to shrink in the first three months of 2021.
The report said that Lagarde said that at present, the economic recovery in the euro zone is slow. She also said, “We expect economic growth to accelerate around the middle of (2021), even if uncertainty remains.”
However, Lagarde made it clear that “we will not see a return to pre-pandemic levels of economic activity before mid-2022.”
In addition, Lagarde also called on European leaders on the same day to approve a recovery fund worth up to 750 billion euros. She emphasized that the plan needs to be approved in time so that the European Commission can borrow and distribute funds as planned. =
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