Introduction: According to the price comparison of 44 major chemical products tracked by Jin Lianchuang, except for a few products that are stable after the holiday, nearly 79% of chemical products Prices are rising. Foreign emergencies such as crude oil provided support to some products, and energy and chemical products generally rose after the holiday. Among them, products with a price increase of more than 10% include butyl octanol, cyclohexanone, styrene, pure benzene, hydrogenated benzene and ethylene glycol; products with a price increase of more than 5% include toluene, xylene, diethylene glycol, butyl acrylate Ester, acrylic, fiber grade PET, polyester filament and propylene glycol.
Data source: Jinlianchuang
The following is a brief analysis of the main products with larger increases:
Butyl-octanol: The octanol market is mostly driven by demand. Before the holiday, downstream DOP and DOTP factories have fewer stops and holidays than in previous years, and export orders for gloves are booming. Increased influence of factors. Returning from the holiday, the raw material inventory of downstream factories has dropped to a low level, and downstream plasticizer factories have restarted one after another. The above factors have driven the octanol market to rise sharply after the holiday. At present, the domestic octanol market price has risen to an eight-year high. Based on various factors, domestic octanol has remained above 10,000 yuan for a long time in the first quarter or it may become the norm. n-Butanol rose by more than 1,500 yuan/ton on the first day of trading after the holiday, which was mostly affected by multiple factors such as demand-driven, short-term suspension of some equipment, and rising external market prices; the demand for butyl acrylate in the main downstream consumption areas of this variety was strong (butyl acrylate in early February Export orders have increased sharply, and orders are often scheduled until April); in addition, the Yan’an energy and chemical plant was temporarily shut down for a few days during the Spring Festival; the start-up time of the BASF plant in Germany is yet to be determined, and the n-butanol plant of Dow Chemical was shut down due to raw material problems. Foreign supply fell, and the focus of external market discussions also rose broadly.
Pure benzene: The large amount of stock before the holiday and the strong bullish mentality have caused the market inventory level to decline. The external market has continued to rise in about two weeks, relatively Domestic trade inverted price differences have widened, and corporate prices have increased significantly by 400 yuan/ton after the holiday. Styrene prices have even increased to around 1,000 yuan/ton. Both internal and external factors have promoted the market to continue to rise in the pre-holiday direction. Products in other downstream industrial chains have significantly followed up the rise, ensuring that the overall profits of the industrial chain are still guaranteed. Considering the cost line factors, the cost of goods has increased significantly in March and April, and the gap between high and low costs is relatively small, which provides greater support for the operation of domestic trade.
Styrene: During the Spring Festival, a series of styrene plants in Europe and the United States were shut down unplanned, causing local prices to skyrocket, driving the Asian market to follow suit. The tight price of U.S. dollar goods has further fed back to the Chinese market. On the first day of trading, the price of styrene in mainstream domestic markets rose sharply by 700-1,000 yuan/ton. At present, due to the centralized failure of many styrene equipment in ocean-going Europe and the United States, coupled with the intensive maintenance cycle of international styrene in Asia from March to April, the US dollar market is expected to continue the situation of tight goods and high prices, and the inversion of internal and external market has been significantly intensified, all of which have a negative impact on China’s styrene. There is strong price support in the short-term market, and it is conducive to export negotiations for Chinese sources of goods. At the same time, the sharp rise in the price of raw material pure benzene and the relatively low year-on-year inventory of styrene terminals in East China have provided strong price support for the domestic market. Styrene valuations and shock ranges have moved up significantly, and short-term stocks continue to rise above expectations. In the short term, we need to pay attention to the restart progress of the external styrene unit. At the same time, because some domestic downstream industries have not yet resumed operations, the ability to accept high-priced raw materials remains to be seen, especially in terms of EPS and PS.
Cyclohexanone: During the holidays, the overall operation of the equipment was relatively stable, and no large-scale purchasing behavior occurred in the downstream. Contract receipts were still the main focus, and the purchasing volume of solvents in South China Relatively limited, but driven by the soaring price of upstream pure benzene, the cost has increased significantly. At the same time, the downstream caprolactam and adipic acid markets have risen simultaneously, which has boosted the cyclohexanone market. Although short-term performance quotations after the holiday are scarce, the overall industry chain The operating direction caused the market price of cyclohexanone to rise sharply, but its own upward momentum was not clearly reflected.
Hydrobenzene: During the holidays, affected by factors such as extremely cold weather in the United States, both U.S. and Burundi oil prices rebounded to their highest levels in the past year. The external price of pure benzene also rose simultaneously, with CFR China rising by US$37/ton to US$774-775/ton compared with before the holiday. External favorable conditions stimulated a strong opening of the domestic market. Locally-refined petroleum benzene is actively raising prices, and Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price has been raised by 400 yuan/ton to 5,800 yuan/ton. In addition, downstream companies are in urgent need of replenishment, and with the support of favorable fundamentals, hydrogenated benzene manufacturers are reluctant to sell at high prices. The market has a strong bullish atmosphere, and the short-term market has maintained its upward trend. However, as the price of hydrogenated benzene has risen sharply, the profit margins of some downstream products have narrowed, and the downstream maintenance plans from March to April are relatively concentrated. The market’s resistance to high prices has increased and the recent increases have gradually been digested.
Ethylene glycol: During the Spring Festival, although the ethylene glycol market was closed, the continued rise in crude oil prices gave the market good support, and the United States was affected by extreme The weather affected the parking of some installations. Stimulated by favorable external conditions, the price of ethylene glycol market rose sharply after the holiday.On the same day, the opening price exceeded the 5,000 mark, and the closing price was 5,305-5,315 yuan/ton, an increase of 490 yuan/ton. At present, the shutdown of equipment in the United States has led to a reduction in supply. The tight supply of goods in the U.S. dollar market has given the market better support. The U.S. dollar price has remained high, thus boosting the spot sentiment. At the same time, terminal demand is gradually recovering, and downstream purchases are taking advantage of opportunities, and the demand side is also well supported. Boosted by crude oil and peripheral equipment news, bulk commodities and other gains, the short-term ethylene glycol market may be expected to continue to rise. Domestic ethylene glycol units have been relatively stable recently. The supply of U.S. dollar goods arriving at the port has decreased. Downstream maintenance has been completed and construction has begun. Appropriate replenishment has been completed. However, some new units have been put into production and replenishment has been completed. It is expected that there will be a slight correction after the price rises, but the price is still It is fluctuating at a high level. It is recommended to pay more attention to crude oil and downstream conditions.
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