On the first day of construction, the white horse stocks who were “grouped” were a little miserable: A shares fell, Hong Kong stocks fell, Hong Kong stocks fell, and US stocks fell.
On February 18, A-share “group” white horse stocks also suffered a sharp decline. Midea Group fell by more than 8%, Hikvision fell by more than 7%, and Guizhou Moutai rarely fell 5%. The core assets of Hong Kong stocks also collapsed. Alibaba fell by more than 2%, Meituan and Kuaishou fell by more than 5%, and BeiGene, the second largest holding of Haidilao and Hillhouse Capital, both fell by more than 9%. Immediately afterwards, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed down, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.38%, the S&P 500 Index falling 0.44%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index falling 0.72%. Most Chinese concept stocks fell, with Douyu falling by more than 7%, NIO and Xpeng Motors falling by more than 5%, and Pinduoduo and Baidu falling by more than 3%.
Rumors about increasing production have been suppressed, and the crude oil market cannot hold on? WTI crude oil futures closed down 1.01% at US$60.52/barrel; Brent crude oil futures closed down 0.64% at US$63.93/barrel. Natural gas futures fell more than 4% during the day and are currently trading at $3.09/million British thermal units.
The main crude oil futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.45% in night trading at 393.7 yuan/barrel.
The central bank’s open market operations before and after the Spring Festival will always receive great attention from the market. On February 18, the central bank rarely achieved a net withdrawal of 260 billion yuan. Funding interest rates are rising, and the bond market is under pressure. Analysts believe that given the central bank’s recent operations and the large amount of funds that will expire after the holiday, capital fluctuations are expected to continue. The central bank issued a statement through official media stating that it is no longer necessary to pay too much attention to the number of central bank operations, otherwise it may misunderstand the direction of monetary policy. The focus should be on the central bank’s open market operation interest rate, MLF interest rate and other policy interest rate indicators, as well as the market benchmark interest rate for a period of time. operation within the time period.
According to multiple American media reports, Texas in the United States has been hit by a severe cold wave recently, with temperatures in some places even hitting record lows in decades. Local media reports in Texas show that although many places in the United States that have experienced cold waves are experiencing power shortages, the problem in Texas is more serious than the “rolling blackouts” that last about an hour in other places. —Because the state’s power grid system did not take into account the impact of cold winter weather, its power supply equipment was directly frozen under such weather conditions. Affected by the historical separatism in Texas, the state’s power grid is independent of the federal power grid system that covers many parts of the United States. Therefore, many of the standards and measures adopted by the US federal power grid system to deal with cold winter weather have not been adopted. The state’s own power grid system is adopted. According to local media reports, Tim Boyd, the mayor of Colorado, Texas, wrote in an online post on Tuesday morning local time: “We owe you and your family nothing. The local government It is not our responsibility to help you in this difficult time! It is your own choice to live or die! The government, power suppliers and other service providers do not owe you anything!”
After returning from the long holiday, the domestic A-share market opened higher and moved lower on the first trading day of the Year of the Ox, while the commodity futures market was “rising”. The non-ferrous, black and energy chemical sectors generally strengthened. Among them, styrene, ethylene glycol, Short fiber prices hit the daily limit, crude oil and iron ore soared by more than 7%, and many varieties such as bicoal, copper, zinc, and tin closed with strong gains.
China’s futures market assets are about to exceed one trillion yuan, and transactions have reached a record high. Data shows that China’s futures market developed rapidly in 2020, with trading volume of 6.153 billion lots hitting a record high, growing significantly for two consecutive years. In addition, the global rankings of China’s four futures exchanges have steadily improved; in the global trading volume rankings of various types, agricultural products performed well, occupying the top 10 places. China’s futures market has entered a period of rapid growth. The rapid growth of enterprises and institutions, the vigorous development of innovative businesses and the flow of additional funds will become the main driving forces!
During the Spring Festival holiday, the overall performance of overseas markets was optimistic, global liquidity was abundant, and both houses of the U.S. Congress successfully passed the fiscal year 2021 budget resolution. At the same time, Biden proposed 19,000 The US$100 million fiscal stimulus bill is expected to be implemented as soon as the end of February or early March, and the Federal Reserve will maintain its easing policy for a longer period of time. The domestic economy continues to recover, the increase in social financing is higher than expected, and rising crude oil prices have boosted market inflation expectations. In terms of epidemic prevention and control, the situation at home and abroad continues to improve, the number of newly confirmed cases has dropped rapidly, and the number of new deaths has also peaked and declined. The pace of economic recovery from the epidemic has not changed, which has supported the prices of risk assets.
As far as the stock market is concerned, on the first trading day after the holiday, both the Main Board and the GEM opened higher and moved lower. The Shenzhen Component Index and the GEM Index fell to a certain extent. It is worth noting that the market style differences in the stock market are quite significant. In terms of indices, the CSI 500 Index showed a certain increase, while the Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 both fell. The profit-making effect of individual stocks is relatively good, but the white horse stocks that were strong before the holiday suffered heavy losses.
“The main reason why the stock index opened higher and moved lower unilaterally is that the market expects liquidity to shrink after the holiday. On February 18, the central bank hedged MLF operations in equal amounts, but at the same time reduced the amount of hedging. The reverse repurchase expires, and the tight balance of funds is maintained as expected, which puts certain pressure on the stock index.” Jin Hui, senior analyst of Zheshang Futures stock index futures, said.
As for the market outlook, Jin Hui believes that current corporate profits are supportive of the index, but liquidity is still expected to tighten, so the pressure above the index is increasing. It is still a high probability event that IF and IH will be stronger than IC in the future.
Spot prices did not fall significantly during the holiday period, and the market outlook will focus on post-holiday demand. In terms of live pigs, the spot price of live pigs has gradually dropped since February. Wang Na believes that the main reasons are firstly that large-weight pigs in the hands of retail investors before the Spring Festival in Northeast China are concentrated in the slaughter after the holiday; secondly, the overall slaughter volume after the holiday is low; thirdly, due to the African Fever epidemic Underweight pigs sold off heavily.
After the Spring Festival, it is the peak period for small and medium-sized farmers to restock their stalls. Wang Na predicts that the price of piglets may continue to rise after the Spring Festival. The 2109 contract of pig futures rose 1.26% to regain the 27,000 yuan/ton mark, and the 2111 and 2201 contracts both increased by more than 2.3%, indicating the market’s concerns about the future of pig stocks. In the future, we must focus on the development of the African Fever epidemic. If the epidemic is not effectively controlled, it is expected that hog futures will continue to oscillate higher.
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