Part 1 Brief Description
In January, the overall upstream and downstream products of the polyester industry chain showed a pattern of first rising and then falling. In the first half of the year, international crude oil continued to rise, bulk commodities collectively strengthened, and the polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol markets fluctuated and rose. Driven by the raw materials, the polyester product market subsequently rose. Beginning in the middle and late half of the year, market driving factors weakened, and the polyester raw material market returned to market fundamentals. Under the pressure of accumulating inventory, PTA market gradually weakened, and cost support weakened. While terminal weaving companies began to suspend production and take holidays one after another, the demand side weakened, and polyester Polyester companies have increased their promotional efforts, and the polyester product market has weakened in a narrow range.
Table 1 Ranking list of the rise and fall of various products in the chemical fiber industry chain in January:
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
As shown in Table 1, in terms of month-on-month range, in January PX (CFR Taiwan) increased by 13.70% month-on-month, PTA increased by 7.07% month-on-month, MEG increased by 13.33% month-on-month, and polyester chips increased month-on-month. 8.62%, polyester bottle flakes increased by 6.39% month-on-month, polyester filament increased by 9.41% month-on-month, and polyester short fiber increased by 9.18% month-on-month.
Part 2 Analysis of the rise and fall and trend of the chemical fiber industry chain in January
Data source: Jinlianchuang
Jinlianchuang chemical fiber industry chain monitored the monthly average prices of 7 chemical fiber products and raw materials. As shown in the figure above, chemical fiber in January The monthly average price of products increased across the board, with the increase concentrated in 6-14%. The largest increase was PX, which increased by 13.70%, followed by MEG, which increased by 13.33%. The smallest increase was for polyester bottle flakes, which only increased by 6.39%.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
Statistics on the rise and fall of various products in the chemical fiber industry chain in January As shown in the figure above, the chemical fiber industry chain market fluctuated during the month and mainly rose. However, the overall level was still far lower than the price in the same period last year. From the year-on-year data, it can be seen that the overall decline was between 11-22%, with the largest decline For PTA, the decrease was 22.26%, while the smallest decrease was for polyester staple fiber, with a decrease of 10.82%.
Part 3 Market Analysis of Main Products of the Chemical Fiber Chain
PX
The Asian PX market fluctuated and rose in January. As of the end of the month, Asian PX was estimated at US$666/ton FOB South Korea and US$684/ton CFR Taiwan/China, which was US$65/ton higher than the end of last month. At the beginning of the month, international crude oil continued to rise, the overall enthusiasm of the industry chain was high, and the general environment was warmer. In addition, Pengzhou Petrochemical’s 750,000 tons/year PX unit was temporarily shut down due to malfunction, domestic supply continued to tighten, and cargo holders had a strong intention to raise prices, while The downstream PTA market also continues to pick up, and the linked raw material PX continues to strengthen. International crude oil continued to hit recent highs in the first half of the year, and the PX upstream and downstream markets generally followed suit. Although Pengzhou Petrochemical’s 750,000 tons/year PX unit resumed production, the current overall domestic supply is still not high, and merchants have a strong intention to raise prices, and PX remains strong. situation. The market rally slowed down in the middle of the year. Two sets of domestic PX devices are still under maintenance, and the supply is relatively small. However, under the influence of some long-term uncertain factors, market participants are still wary of this upward trend, and the market is mainly volatile and consolidated. . At the end of the month, the new PTA plant of Baihong Petrochemical was put into operation. The PTA industry started at a high level, and the demand for PX was good. Merchants held firm in their offers. However, as Fuhai Chuang’s PX plant was restarted after maintenance, the supply of PX also increased, which suppressed market sentiment and led to a stalemate in the long-short atmosphere. At the end of the month, Sinopec announced that the January PX settlement price was 5,190 yuan/ton, which was 530 yuan/ton higher than the previous month’s settlement. The average CFR Taiwan/China price in January was US$679.95/ton, up 13.70% month-on-month and down 16.41% year-on-year. The lowest price was US$636/ton on January 1, and the highest price was US$697/ton on January 14. Ton.
PTA
The PTA spot market first rose and then fell in January, and the overall transaction situation was acceptable. At the beginning of the month, the international crude oil market rose sharply, and the cost side strongly boosted the PTA market. The macro market atmosphere was good, boosting the PTA market mentality. Some PTA installations have been shut down, and spot circulation is still tight. The downstream construction load remains high, and the demand side has some support for PTA. The contradiction between market supply and demand has eased in the short term, and PTA prices have increased significantly. On the 7th, the spot offer at the main port in East China was reduced by 175-180 yuan/ton for the 2105 contract, and the offer was reduced by 185 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 3850-3880 yuan/ton. In the middle of the year, the international crude oil market fluctuated at a high level, and the cost side played a strong role in promoting the PTA market. Some PTA devices have shut down or reduced production, and supply has further tightened slightly. There is not much inventory pressure in downstream links, and demand-side support for PTA still exists. The severe epidemic situation has slightly cooled the market sentiment, but the positive macroeconomic external market has released, and PTA maintains a strong trend. On the 14th, the spot offer at the main port in East China was reduced by 180 yuan/ton for the 2105 contract, and the offer was reduced by 185 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 3840-3860 yuan/ton. In the second half of the year, the international crude oil market fluctuated, and the cost side provided moderate support to the PTA market. Fujian Baihong’s new equipment was put into production and some maintenance equipment was heated up and restarted. The supply pressure further increased and the market was significantly overstocked. Some downstream polyester plants are undergoing centralized maintenance. As the Spring Festival approaches, terminal demand gradually weakens, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the PTA market becomes prominent. On the 28th, the spot offer at the main port in East China was reduced by 170 yuan/ton for the 2105 contract, and the offer was reduced by 180 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 3710-3730 yuan/ton. The average PTA market price in East China in January was 3,769 yuanOn the 28th, the factory had one day of loss-making sales. Downstream companies stocked up on bargains before the holiday, and production and sales increased. As of January 29, the average market price of polyester filament POY in East China was 6,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.41% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 14.96%. The highest price appeared on January 14 at 6,300 yuan/ton, and the lowest price appeared in January. 5,750 yuan/ton on the 28th.
Part 4 Forecast and Outlook
It is predicted that the polyester industry chain market in February may be High shock pattern. International oil prices will fluctuate at a high level in February, and costs will provide greater support to the market. However, the supply and demand sides of the polyester raw material market coexist, and the market may remain high. The raw material end will provide certain support for the polyester market. There will be an increase in maintenance of polyester equipment next month, and terminal textiles have entered the year-end market. The start-up of weaving enterprises will drop to a low level in the first ten days of the year. Under the support of low inventories of polyester enterprises, the polyester industry chain market will maintain a volatile trend next month. The following is the market outlook for each product:
PX: The PX market is expected to fluctuate in a range in February, mainly digesting gains. All early PX maintenance devices have returned to normal, and domestic PX construction starts will remain At a high level, the supply has increased significantly, and the industry players are cautious. However, the demand for PX is good, and the market is in a stalemate between long and short. Taken together, it is expected that the PX market will fluctuate and consolidate in February, and it is difficult to have a direction.
PTA: Jin Lianchuang expects the PTA market to be strong in February. As Fujian Baihong’s new device comes into operation, supply pressure continues to increase; however, future downstream demand will continue to decline before the Spring Festival, which is also an expected change. Supported by costs, market prices are highly resistant to falling prices. The trend of crude oil will definitely boost the PTA market. At the same time, the global epidemic situation has eased, and the market is still relatively optimistic about textile demand after the Spring Festival. Therefore, the PTA market may maintain a strong pattern in February.
MEG: It is expected that the ethylene glycol market may fluctuate at a high level in February. From a macro perspective, the number of confirmed cases of the global epidemic has exceeded 100 million, countries have strengthened control measures, and the market is still worried about the prospects for demand recovery. From a fundamental point of view, overseas equipment is overhauled in advance, the expected increase in imports is postponed, some new equipment is delayed in production, the recovery of ethylene glycol supply is not obvious, spot circulation is still tight, and downstream and terminal weaving demand is still expected to weaken before the Spring Festival. , however, terminal demand improved after the Spring Festival, which provided sufficient support to the market. It is expected that the subsequent market will continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and may mainly fluctuate at high levels in the medium and long term.
Polyester PET: The polyester PET market is expected to fluctuate in February. The raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol may run strongly next month, and the cost-end promotion effect of polyester will increase. From the supply side, polyester plants in many factories were shut down for maintenance in early February, the operating rate was significantly reduced, and the total market supply was further reduced. Although production resumed in late February, it will still take time for the market supply to recover; from the demand side, Coinciding with the Spring Festival holiday, the overall demand for polyester PET in the market is average. Most downstream factories are cautiously waiting and watching, and the buying sentiment is cautious. The supply and demand side of the polyester PET market is generally weak. Taken together, the polyester PET market is expected to fluctuate in February, and we should pay close attention to the trend of international crude oil and the trend of the upstream raw material market in the future.
Polyester fiber: The polyester fiber market is expected to fluctuate widely in February. Although the supply pressure of raw material PTA continues to increase, the easing of the epidemic will benefit the polyester market and boost the overall market sentiment. Since the inventory pressure of polyester fiber factories is within control this year, and the local government has advocated a policy of not returning to hometowns unless necessary, the maintenance intensity has been reduced compared with last year. At present, most of the inventory exists in traders and downstream factories, and some workers in downstream weaving and yarn mills have gone home early due to the impact of the epidemic. The weaving operating rate has dropped to around 30%. It is expected that the operating rate will be reduced to a minimum in early February. , so downstream demand will continue to decrease. In the future, although the demand in the polyester fiber market will gradually weaken, the market will be more resilient due to low manufacturers’ inventories. </p
