Introduction: In early January, international oil prices rose sharply. Due to strong benefits from the cost side, the PTA market also continued to be strong. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, as downstream demand gradually weakens, the upward trend of the PTA market may be hindered.
Last week, polyester staple fiber devices such as Sanfangxiang and Suqian Yida restarted, but the Kaishi Group and Changshu Hengyi devices were shut down one after another. In addition, some polyester factory devices are still shut down. The polyester industry Construction starts were slightly lowered and currently remain at 86.55%. As the Lunar New Year approaches, downstream polyester factory equipment is gradually undergoing maintenance and load reduction. Terminal weaving factories are gradually announcing plans for the Spring Festival holiday. Workers are returning home from the holidays in advance, and the weaving start-up load has been reduced, and is currently maintained at around 5%.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
With the restart of early maintenance equipment, the pressure on the PTA supply side With further increases, the phased slight destocking may come to an end, and the market will return to a pattern of accumulating stocks. Yisheng Chemical’s 2.25 million ton plant has reduced production to 50% since January 12, and has been operating at full capacity around January 16. Fuhai Chuang’s 4.5 million-ton unit is scheduled to heat up on January 18 and may be officially put into operation on the 20th. The supply side will remain loose, and the tight spot circulation situation may improve in mid-to-late January. In the medium to long term, multiple new PTA devices will be put into production in the first quarter, and the expansion of production capacity will also suppress PTA market sentiment.
From a macro and crude oil perspective, the severe situation of the COVID-19 epidemic has caused panic in the crude oil market. International oil prices retreated from highs last Friday, while the overall commodity market has cooled down compared to the previous period. U.S. President-elect Biden is about to be sworn in and will implement a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan, which may stimulate global fuel demand and boost sentiment in the international crude oil market. Therefore, although there is a correction expected on the cost side, the magnitude may not be large, and the overall support on the cost side still exists.
On the whole, the cost side supports PTA, but the demand side has weakened month-on-month, supply will gradually pick up, PTA fundamentals remain weak, and the market has insufficient momentum to continue to rise. The market may continue to rise in the short term. Maintain a volatile pattern. </p
