The Biden team in the United States may announce the US$1.9 trillion “American Rescue Plan”. This news is good for the fluctuation of crude oil prices and supports the continued high level of PTA prices. . As of January 14, 2021, the WTI 01 contract was at US$53.57/barrel; the Brent 02 contract was at US$56.42/barrel. The main contract of China SC crude oil futures was 2101 to 343.9 yuan/barrel.
Market overview:
The PTA market continues to rise after the recent correction. At the beginning of the week, as the epidemic in Europe and the United States was still severe, many European countries strengthened control measures, which made the market worried about the demand outlook, and oil prices fell, causing a correction in PTA prices. However, foreign economic stimulus is improving, and Saudi Arabia’s early commitment to additional production cuts continues to provide support to the market, so PTA prices continue to rise.
Supply side: Recently, there is news that the tense situation of PTA spot inventory has eased. Although most of the supply flows into the warehouse area, if the shipment is smooth next week, If it is effectively eased, the tight spot liquidity situation in the market may gradually improve. Recently, the load of Yisheng Chemical’s 2.25 million tons plant has been reduced to 50%, and the supply has shown a narrow downward movement. It is expected that Fuhai Chuang’s 4.5 million tons and Yisheng Chemical’s 2.25 million tons plant will recover next week, and the market supply will continue to be at a high level.
Demand side: Recently, the domestic polyester industry has been overhauled, restarted and put into production. Yida and Sanfang units have restarted, Kaishi and Yijin units have been overhauled, and Sanwei New The unit came on stream, so polyester output levels rose slightly. After the terminal market has experienced concentrated replenishment in the early stage, there is now a certain amount of raw material inventory. In the context of workers returning home, terminal texturing and weaving loads have begun to gradually decline. Although polyester factories are supported by strong raw material performance, Some factory production and sales data are strong, but the performance of demand generally makes the factory price increase insufficient.
Market outlook:
Taken together, crude oil is in an upward trend, the fundamentals are still strong, and the PX processing gap has been repaired recently, showing positive support. Although there is an expectation for a correction in costs, the space may be relatively limited. The short-term accumulation of supply and demand has eased, but it is still accumulating in the medium and long term. Therefore, we believe that the market may remain high and volatile, with a range of 3650-3850 yuan/ton. In the medium and long term, we are still bullish. .
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