On January 18, the chemical fiber industry led the gains in the two cities. As of the close, the chemical fiber index rose by 7.22%; Aoyang Health, Dongfang Shenghong, Huafeng Chemical, Hengli Petrochemical, Tongkun Stock rose to the daily limit, Hengyi Petrochemical, Sinoma Technology, Xinfengming, Aoyuan Meigu, Nanjing Chemical Fiber, Rongsheng Petrochemical rose more than 5%.
It is worth mentioning that Hengli Petrochemical has been rising since January 4, 2021, with a cumulative increase of 39.61%, and a market value of 274.9 billion. Approaching the 280 billion mark. When answering questions from investors, the company stated that the stock price in the secondary market is affected by a variety of factors, including macroeconomic policies, international and domestic economic situations, market buying and selling power comparison, investor psychological factors, etc. The company has been deeply involved in the petrochemical and chemical fiber industry for more than 45 years, insisting on focusing on its main business and adhering to the strategy of integrated development of the industrial chain. In addition to the refining and chemical sector, downstream related business sectors such as PTA and chemical fiber are all deployed in China. As of June 30, 2020, the company’s PTA holding capacity was 13.5 million tons, and an additional PTA production capacity of 6 million tons/year is planned under construction; caprolactam ( CPL) has a production capacity of 400,000 tons/year; polyester production capacity is 6.5 million tons/year, and a planned new polyester fiber production capacity of 1.816 million tons/year is under construction; polyester bottle flake production capacity is 2 million tons/year, and the production capacity scale ranks among the top in the industry .
However, it should be noted that Hengli Petrochemical will lift the ban on 2,407.1642 million shares on February 1. At that time, the shares of the actual controller and Henneng Investment (Dalian) Co., Ltd. will change We will wait and see whether the complete circulation will suppress the current price.
The development prospects of chemical fiber are bright
As early as the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” Development Guidance for the Chemical Fiber Industry “It was clearly stated in “Strive to improve the various modification technologies of conventional chemical fibers and the research and development of new products, focusing on improving the flame retardant, antibacterial, chemical resistance, UV resistance and other properties of conventional fibers such as polyester, nylon, and regenerated cellulose fibers. Increase the proportion of functional and differentiated fiber varieties. The continuous introduction of industrial policies has pointed out the general direction of future development for enterprises in the industry, and will also support the better and faster development of my country’s chemical fiber industry.
At present, although the traditional textile industry in major developed countries continues to shrink, the development momentum of industrial textiles is strong. The processing volume of industrial textiles in the United States, Japan, Germany and other countries all accounts for 40%. More than %, while my country’s textile fiber is still mainly for clothing. Data shows that from 2015 to 2019, the total output of my country’s chemical fiber industry increased from 48.3171 million tons to 59.528 million tons, showing an overall upward trend. In 2019, the fiber processing volume of my country’s industrial textiles accounted for 27.22% of the total chemical fiber processing volume, indicating a large room for growth. In the future, industrial textiles will become a new and powerful growth point for the development of the chemical fiber industry and one of the important symbols for promoting the adjustment, upgrading and improvement of core competitiveness of the industrial structure. According to United Nations forecasts, global textile fiber processing volume will reach 253 million tons by 2050, of which industrial textile fibers will account for 67.4%.
Procyclical driving of industry upwards
Essence Securities stated that the epidemic in 2020 will affect overall demand, and crude oil Prices fell to historical lows, dragging down the prices of various upstream bulk raw materials. Chemical fiber prices have been affected by downward pressure on raw material prices, and the cost side has collapsed. At the same time, the contraction of the demand side has further suppressed the industry’s prosperity, fundamentally affecting the realization of product profits. The overall downward transmission of the industry chain has been poor, resulting in the rapid accumulation of inventories and the bottoming out of the industry’s prosperity.
After the epidemic, as terminals gradually pick up, the inventory of the chemical fiber industry has been significantly reduced, laying the groundwork for future price increases. Base. In terms of raw materials, as crude oil prices continue to rise, the cost side is supported. At the same time, the domestic downstream business is expected to be strong, and the off-season phenomenon will not be weak in the 2020Q4. There is still room for repair in overseas terminals. Currently, overseas inventories are at low levels. In the future, as the epidemic situation improves, the demand for replenishment is expected to be strong.
From the perspective of the inventory cycle, the industry is currently in the third quadrant, that is, the recovery stage from active destocking to passive destocking is gradually transitioning. Combining the above logic, the chemical fiber industry has a high probability of prosperity in the future. It is suggested that under the background of the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation, the recovery of terminal demand, the improvement of the industrial structure and the expectation of restocking, the chemical fiber industry is expected to usher in a boom cycle.
Huachuang Securities believes that with a low base in 2020 and demand recovery in 2021, the demand-side growth rate in 2021 is expected to be close to 9%, and the filament industry is approaching an inflection point. Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Ltd. and Xinfengming are expected to increase their new yarn production capacity by 2.1 million and 2.5 million tons in 2020 and 2021, accounting for two-thirds of the new production capacity in that year. Industry concentration is expected to further increase, with filament yarn leader The company is expected to benefit from capacity expansion + demand recovery. As the main fabric, polyester filament lags behind the price feedback of spandex and other small chemical fibers to demand recovery. A high valuation safety margin + rebound in prosperity are the key to investment in polyester filament targets in 2021. There are signs of recovery in the current downstream textile and apparel industry. alreadyIt is becoming increasingly clear that the price trend that is not weak in the off-season indicates that the turning point is approaching.
Southwest Securities pointed out that in the short term, with the arrival of the off-season, China’s textile and clothing exports may continue to decline month-on-month in early 2021, but the export volume of masks and protective textiles is still expected to continue enlarge. We believe that due to relatively full downstream demand and the price of upstream chemical fiber products at a historical bottom, the corresponding chemical fiber prices will continue to rise for a period of time. At the same time, the signing of RCEP will benefit my country’s textile and chemical fiber industry in the long term. </p
