Overview
In the first week of 2021, external crude oil prices rose sharply, and then fluctuated and pulled back in the second week, Brent 03 The main contract’s weekly decline was 2.41%, breaking through $57 during the week and then falling back to $55. The weekly decline of WTI 03 main contract was 2.78%. The main contract of SC crude oil 2103 followed the external market correction this week, with a weekly decline of 2.47%. The weather is cold, and there are signs of a partial resurgence of the domestic epidemic. The number of new cases in the UK in a single day has declined. As of the reporting period, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States has exceeded 24.3 million, and the number of deaths has exceeded 405,000. India and Brazil rank second and third in cumulative confirmed cases. Pay attention to vaccine progress and the domestic epidemic counterattack in winter.
PTA:
The average spot price of PTA fell first and then rose, reaching 3845 as of last Friday Yuan / ton. The main contract of TA2105 has a weekly increase of 0.2%. The processing difference of TA in recent months has been significantly compressed to around 450 at the beginning of the week. Later, it has been significantly restored to around 580 under the Yisheng maintenance plan and the reduction of load and price. The main processing difference has been greatly compressed to around 580 at the beginning of the week. Around 560, it was later significantly restored to around 670. The TA spot processing gap was significantly reduced to 368 at the beginning of the week and then rose back to above 480. Fuhua Industrial and Trading’s 4.5 million ton unit will be shut down for maintenance on 12.23 and is expected to restart around 1.20; Hanbang Petrochemical’s 2.2 million ton unit will be shut down for maintenance on 1.7; Yisheng Petrochemical’s 2.25 million ton unit will be operating at 50% load since 1.12 and is scheduled to restart on 1.16; Sheng (Ningbo) 2.2 million tons PTA device is scheduled to be inspected on January 24, which is expected to take 15 days. The PTA load was 81%, a decrease of 1.9% from last week. On the demand side, as of last Friday, the preliminary calculation of domestic polyester comprehensive load was 88.7%. Last week, the start of construction in the lower reaches of Jiangsu and Zhejiang was affected by the return of workers, and the load dropped. Texturing operations are currently down to 86%; loom operations are currently down to 65%; dyeing factory operations are currently at 66%. The external crude oil market fluctuated slightly and made a slight correction last week, and the PX-NPT spread narrowed again to around 160.
Ethylene glycol:
The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol rose first and then fell , as of last Friday it was 4552 yuan/ton. The current structure of ethylene glycol futures has reversed during the week, and the main basis has strengthened significantly month-on-month. As of January 11, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was approximately 737,000 tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the previous period. The arrival forecast last week was 204,000 tons, but the actual arrival was still too small. Overseas supply is unlikely to recover significantly. Shipments within the week are neutral, inventory may be slightly accumulated this week, and inventory accumulation may continue until the end of the month. As of January 14, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 62.77%, of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was 56.26%. Overseas: The 360,000 tons/year MEG device in South Asia in the United States is currently shut down and is expected to be shut down until the end of July 2021. The new 828,000 tons/year MEG unit in South Asia in the United States was shut down on January 4 due to insufficient ethylene, and the restart plan was postponed to early February; the Morvarid 500,000 tons unit was shut down for maintenance in early January, and the maintenance time is expected to be around one month. Overseas supply is unlikely to recover significantly. The demand side has declined steadily, and the worst stage of supply and demand may be from late January to the end of the month.
Cost and profit
1 Raw material market
NPT (cfr Japan) fluctuated and rose last week, rising to $528.5 per ton last Friday. In the first week of 2021, external crude oil rose sharply, and then experienced a shock correction in the second week. The main Brent 03 contract fell by 2.41% on a weekly basis, breaking through $57 during the week and then falling back to $55. The weekly decline of WTI 03 main contract was 2.78%. The naphtha-Brent spread fluctuated and widened during the week, reaching US$123.5 as of last Friday; the naphtha-WTI spread followed the same trend, reaching around US$143.65 as of last Friday. The price of PX (cfr China) fluctuated this week, reaching US$689/ton as of last Friday. The operating rates of PX China and Asia rebounded slightly, and the PX-NPT spread narrowed again to around US$160 last week.
2 Cost and profit changes
Oil-based ethylene glycol spot The average internal price rose sharply to 4,600 yuan/ton during the week, and continued to fall in the second half of the week, reaching 4,552 yuan/ton last Friday. The spot price near coal production rose sharply to 4,325 yuan/ton during the week and then fell to 4,275 yuan/ton over the weekend. The cost of coal production continues to rise, and the losses of coal production widen again. The cash flow of externally produced ethylene glycol deteriorated at the beginning of the week and improved slightly in the second half of the week, with a current loss of US$131/ton. Ethylene glycol production from naphtha remained profitable, with a profit of US$29/ton as of last Friday. Methanol prices basically remained stable last week. The cash flow loss of the methanol MTO production route repaired to less than 1,500 yuan/ton during the week and then intensified to more than 1,500 yuan/ton over the weekend.
Supply
1 Equipment maintenance Situation
PTA domestic equipment: Considering that the actual operating capacity of Dushan Energy’s 2.2 million tons unit is 2.5 million tons, its production capacity of 2*2.2 million tons is adjusted to 2*2.5 million tons . Therefore, starting from January 1, 2021, the PTA production capacity base was revised to 57.63 million tons. The 4.5 million ton unit of Fuhua Industry and Trade will be inspected from 12.23 and is expected to restart around 1.20; the 350,000 ton unit of Yangzi Petrochemical will be shut down from 11.3, and the restart is to be determined; the 1 million ton unit of Sichuan Energy Investment will be shut down near 12.28 and will be restarted on the 1.5th. The recent load has been increased to Full load; Hanbang Petrochemical’s 2.2 million ton unit will be shut down for maintenance from 1.7; Zhejiang Huabin Petrochemical’s 1.4 million ton unit will be operating at about 90%; Yisheng Lian’s 2.25 million ton unit will be operating at 50% from 1.12, and is scheduled to restart on 1.16 ; Sinopec Luoyang’s 325,000-ton unit load returned toAbout 70%. Under the new capacity base, PTA load was 81%, a decrease of 1.9% from the previous week. Maintenance plan: The 2.2 million-ton PTA unit of Yisheng (Ningbo) is scheduled to be inspected on January 24, which is expected to take 15 days.
Table 1: PTA’s recent major device changes
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
Ethylene glycol unit: As of January 14, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 62.77% (a slight decrease), of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was 56.26% (a significant increase). The total domestic supply is basically stable, and supply is expected to increase. Fujian Refining and Chemical’s 400,000-ton unit was shut down on December 12, and maintenance is expected to take a week; The 400,000-ton unit unexpectedly stopped near the 2nd, restarted on 1.8, and the load was increasing; the loads of Hualu Hengsheng’s 500,000-ton unit and Inner Mongolia Yankuang’s 400,000-ton unit both increased slightly. Maintenance plan: Tongliao Jinmei’s 300,000-ton unit is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance for 10 days on 1.17; Fude Energy’s 500,000-ton unit is scheduled to be overhauled for 10 days on 1.18; Henan Coal (Puyang) and (Yongcheng) each have 200,000-ton units planned for later this month After restarting, the coal production load will be further increased; Yangzi Petrochemical’s 300,000-ton unit is scheduled to be inspected for one month on March 25; Zhenhai Petrochemical’s 650,000-ton unit is 50-60% operational, and it is planned to be inspected for 7 days in March.
Table 2: MEG’s recent major device changes:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research So
2PTA inventory
PTA-converted total social inventory rebounded again last week, among which warehouse receipts continued to rise, and the magnitude of the rebound last week dropped sharply from the previous month. PTA factory inventory and polyester factory raw material inventory both decreased slightly. Circulation inventories still declined significantly last week.
3 Ethylene glycol import and port inventory
As of January 11, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was approximately 737,000 tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the previous period. The arrival forecast last week was 204,000 tons, but the actual arrival was still too small. Overseas supply is unlikely to recover significantly. Shipments within the week are neutral, inventory may be slightly accumulated this week, and inventory accumulation may continue until the end of the month.
Demand
1 Polyester
1.1 Polyester operating rate and device changes
From January 2021, an additional 250,000 tons of Baihong will be added. At the same time, taking into account that several units with a total of 1.46 million tons have been suspended for a long time or are determined to withdraw from the market, after recalculation, the polyester production capacity base has been revised to 61.99 million tons. As of last Friday, the preliminary calculation of domestic polyester comprehensive load was 88.7%. The latest polyester maintenance plan shows that it will be shut down from mid-January to the end of the month. The devices opened in mid-to-late February involve a polyester production capacity of 3.39 million tons, with a production loss of approximately 230,000 tons. At the same time, the devices opened before the end of January involve a production capacity of 20 10,000 tons, with a production loss of 12,500 tons. The polyester production capacity involved in this part of maintenance and restart accounts for 4.2%. The current polyester production capacity is 88.7%, which means that the polyester production capacity will basically reach 84.50% by the end of January. Looking at the time, a large number of polyester plants are scheduled to restart in early February. This part of the plant involves a production capacity of 930,000 tons and accounts for 1.5% of the output. It is estimated that the polyester restart rate will rise to 86% in early February and will be restarted in mid-February. It rose again to 88%.
Table 3: Recent major changes in polyester equipment:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
1.2 Polyester inventory and profit
As of last Friday, Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester factory POY, FDY, and DTY equity inventories On days 7, 10.7 and 10 respectively, the inventory accumulated slightly. Currently, all polyester products are profitable. Polyester staple fiber stocks rebounded slightly to -4.5 days. The average inventory of polyester bottle flakes has dropped significantly to around 15-20 days. The inventory of polyester staple fiber remains at the lowest level for the same period in the past; the inventory of polyester bottle flakes has dropped to the above-balanced level for the same period in the past, the same level as the same period in 2018; the inventory of polyester filament is basically the lowest level for the same period in the past. There is not much pressure on polyester stocks.
2 Terminal situation
Last week, the start of construction in the lower reaches of Jiangsu and Zhejiang was affected by the return of workers, and the load dropped. Texturing operations are currently down to 86%; loom operations are currently down to 65%; dyeing factory operations are currently at 66%.
The inventory days of gray fabrics of sample enterprises in Shengze area have recently fluctuated between 40 and 40.5 days, which is still the highest level in the same period in previous years. The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City dropped by 8% year-on-year in November, and increased significantly by 11% in December compared with the same period last year. It is expected to remain at a relatively high level in January. From January to December 2020, the cumulative exports of textiles and clothing were US$291.21 billion, an increase of 9.5%, of which textile exports were US$153.83 billion, an increase of 29.2%, and clothing exports were US$137.38 billion, a decrease of 6.4%. In December, textile and clothing exports were US$26.2 billion, an increase of 7.2%, of which textile exports were US$12.29 billion, an increase of 12.7%, and clothing exports were US$13.91 billion, an increase of 2.7%.
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The inventory days of gray fabrics in sample enterprises in Shengze area have recently fluctuated between 40 and 40.5 days, which is still the highest level in the same period in previous years. The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City in November dropped by 8% year-on-year. The transaction volume in December increased significantly by 11% year-on-year, and is expected to remain at a relatively high level in January. From January to December 2020, the cumulative exports of textiles and clothing were US$291.21 billion, an increase of 9.5%, of which textile exports were US$153.83 billion, an increase of 9.5%. 29.2%, and clothing exports were US$137.38 billion, a decrease of 6.4%. In December, textile and clothing exports were US$26.2 billion, an increase of 7.2%, of which textile exports were US$12.29 billion, an increase of 12.7%, and clothing exports were US$13.91 billion, an increase of 2.7%.</p
